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Keywords = HRS/HLAPS

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14 pages, 8363 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Assimilating Winds Observed during a Tropical Cyclone on a Forecasting Model
by Jin-Young Kim, Steve Albers, Purnendranath Sen, Hyun-Goo Kim, Keunhoon Kim and Su-Jin Hwang
Atmosphere 2022, 13(8), 1302; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13081302 - 16 Aug 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1890
Abstract
The accurate and timely depiction of the state of severe weather is critical for enhancing forecaster situational awareness. This study attempted to develop a hurricane forecasting model with a warm-start run and investigated the impact of winds observed during a tropical cyclone on [...] Read more.
The accurate and timely depiction of the state of severe weather is critical for enhancing forecaster situational awareness. This study attempted to develop a hurricane forecasting model with a warm-start run and investigated the impact of winds observed during a tropical cyclone on long-term lead times. The Hurricane Research System initialized with the Hurricane Local Analysis Prediction System (HRS/HLAPS) was applied to Hurricanes Katrina and Dennis (2005). The forecasting model used a warm-start run with 7% improved wind data and cloud initialization using the HLAPS. The simulated cyclones were more intense and realistic structures, although the performance varied slightly according to the lead time and cyclone characteristics. The results show that the tropical cyclone development (track and intensity) was significantly affected by initial forcing up to 6–12 h, as well as by the forcing of the limit condition after 6 h. The well-organized spiral bands of convective precipitations were also captured, particularly within the 6 h spin-up time due to vertical wind shear and water vapor trapped in the lower atmosphere. This study demonstrates that aircraft-observed winds and convective initialization can be useful for numerical modeling and operational forecasting. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Remote Sensing and Modelling of Wind Fields)
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