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Keywords = FCVAR model

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14 pages, 1900 KiB  
Article
Consumer Sentiment and Luxury Behavior in the United States before and after COVID-19: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis
by Berta Marcos Ceron and Manuel Monge
Mathematics 2023, 11(16), 3612; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11163612 - 21 Aug 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3494
Abstract
This paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment to understand how they affected the luxury sector in the United States before and after COVID-19. The results were derived using fractional integration methodologies and suggest that, before the pandemic episode, both variables were [...] Read more.
This paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment to understand how they affected the luxury sector in the United States before and after COVID-19. The results were derived using fractional integration methodologies and suggest that, before the pandemic episode, both variables were expected to be mean reverting and the shocks were transitory, having similar behavior. However, after the appearance of COVID-19, results suggest that consumer sentiment recovered before the luxury sector. Results from the use of cointegration methodologies show that the effects of COVID-19 disappeared in the short-run. Finally, the sentiment of consumers acts as a leading indicator of the behavior of the luxury sector according to wavelet analysis. Thus, an increase in consumer sentiment implies an increase of 3.6% in the luxury sector. Full article
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10 pages, 307 KiB  
Article
Consumer Sentiment in the United States and the Impact of Mental Disorders on Consumer Behavior—Time Trends and Persistence Analysis
by Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno and Manuel Monge
Mathematics 2023, 11(13), 2981; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11132981 - 4 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2149
Abstract
This paper analyzes the stochastic properties in clinical disorders to understand how they have manifested in consumer sentiment in the USA since 1990. The results obtained via fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence, finding non-mean reversion behavior in all of [...] Read more.
This paper analyzes the stochastic properties in clinical disorders to understand how they have manifested in consumer sentiment in the USA since 1990. The results obtained via fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence, finding non-mean reversion behavior in all of the time series analyzed, except for depressive disorder. Using a causality test, we find that mental and substance use disorders, anxiety disorder, schizophrenia, and alcohol use disorder influence consumer sentiment. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we conclude that an increase in the previously cited mental disorders produces a decrease in the Consumer Sentiment Index. Full article
8 pages, 546 KiB  
Article
Coronavirus, Vaccination and the Reaction of Consumer Sentiment in The United States: Time Trends and Persistence Analysis
by Jesús Tomás Monge Moreno and Manuel Monge
Mathematics 2023, 11(8), 1851; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11081851 - 13 Apr 2023
Viewed by 1489
Abstract
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire world was waiting for a medical solution (for example, vaccines) in order to return to normality. Sanitary restrictions changed our consumption behaviors and feelings. Therefore, this paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment [...] Read more.
At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the entire world was waiting for a medical solution (for example, vaccines) in order to return to normality. Sanitary restrictions changed our consumption behaviors and feelings. Therefore, this paper analyzes the stochastic properties of consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 episode and the appearance of vaccines against the virus in December 2020 in the United States of America. This study adds a new dimension to the literature because it is the first research paper that uses advanced methodologies based on fractional integration and fractional cointegration analysis to understand the statistical properties of these time series and their behavior in the long term. The results using fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence, finding behavior of mean reversion during the pandemic episode. Therefore, the shock duration in consumer sentiment will be transitory, recovering to its previous trend in the short run. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we arrive at two main conclusions. First, an increase in total vaccination produces a positive reaction or impact on the behavior of consumers. On the other hand, an increase in new COVID-19 cases negatively affects the behavior of the consumer. Full article
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