Search Results (2)

This article examines the potential role of the Antonine Plague (165–180 CE) and climate change in the mid-2nd-century collapse of the Afro-Eurasian world-system. Following the model proposed by Gills and Frank, the world-system cycles between phases of integration (A) and disintegration (B). Integrative phases are marked by increasingly complex exchanges of goods, services, information, and populations, which enhance connectivity and intensify the circulation of matter and energy. Yet, this very complexity, while driving growth and expansion, also generates systemic vulnerabilities. The plague and climate change are examined here as critical shocks that triggered the shift from an A phase to a B phase, destabilizing interconnected regions such as the Roman Empire in the West and the Han Dynasty in China. The demographic losses and logistical strains of the pandemic eroded the integrative structures underpinning Afro-Eurasian connectivity, creating conditions for prolonged disintegration. These developments are further situated within the broader history of the Silk Roads, whose role in fostering transcontinental connections had reached a peak in the centuries preceding the crisis. The analysis underscores how pandemics like the Antonine Plague, together with episodes of abrupt climate change, can act as decisive agents in the disintegration phases of world-systems, reshaping the trajectories of complex societies and accelerating the collapse of established networks. Full article

The lack of a universally accepted definition of a pandemic hinders a comprehensive understanding of and effective response to these global health crises. Current definitions often lack quantitative criteria, rendering them vague and limiting their utility. Here, we propose a refined definition that considers the likelihood of susceptible individuals contracting an infectious disease that culminates in widespread global transmission, increased morbidity and mortality, and profound societal, economic, and political consequences. Applying this definition retrospectively, we identify 22 pandemics that occurred between 165 and 2024 AD and were caused by a variety of diseases, including smallpox (Antonine and American), plague (Justinian, Black Death, and Third Plague), cholera (seven pandemics), influenza (two Russian, Spanish, Asian, Hong Kong, and swine), AIDS, and coronaviruses (SARS, MERS, and COVID-19). This work presents a comprehensive analysis of past pandemics caused by both emerging and re-emerging pathogens, along with their epidemiological characteristics, societal impact, and evolution of public health responses. We also highlight the need for proactive measures to reduce the risk of future pandemics. These strategies include prioritizing surveillance of emerging zoonotic pathogens, conserving biodiversity to counter wildlife trafficking, and minimizing the potential for zoonotic spillover events. In addition, interventions such as promoting alternative protein sources, enforcing the closure of live animal markets in biodiversity-rich regions, and fostering global collaboration among diverse stakeholders are critical to preventing future pandemics. Crucially, improving wildlife surveillance systems will require the concerted efforts of local, national and international entities, including laboratories, field researchers, wildlife conservationists, government agencies and other stakeholders. By fostering collaborative networks and establishing robust biorepositories, we can strengthen our collective capacity to detect, monitor, and mitigate the emergence and transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Full article