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16 pages, 2740 KB  
Article
Toxic Prisons? Local Environmental Quality and the Wellbeing of Incarcerated Populations
by Dominique Moran, Jacob A. Jordaan and Phil I. Jones
Land 2024, 13(2), 223; https://doi.org/10.3390/land13020223 - 10 Feb 2024
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 6493
Abstract
A growing body of scholarship draws attention to prisons and environmental justice, pointing out the propensity for prisons to be located on contaminated sites and to be in close proximity to polluting industries, as well as for prisons themselves to contribute to local [...] Read more.
A growing body of scholarship draws attention to prisons and environmental justice, pointing out the propensity for prisons to be located on contaminated sites and to be in close proximity to polluting industries, as well as for prisons themselves to contribute to local environmental degradation. Prisoners’ immobility renders them unable to relocate away from harmful environments, and there are now numerous suggestions that their wellbeing suffers as a result of the poor quality of many local environments. However, since a relationship between environmental quality and prisoner wellbeing is yet to be robustly demonstrated, there is currently no firm evidence base from which to argue for positive change. This paper therefore examines the effect of the environmental quality of the locations of prisons, approximated as the presence of greenspace in the immediate vicinity of prisons, local species biodiversity and local levels of air and noise pollution, on wellbeing outcomes in a set of prisons in England and Wales. It finds that good environmental quality, in the form of high biodiversity and/or low air pollution, enhances the already-recognized positive effects of greenspace on the wellbeing of incarcerated populations. On the basis of these findings, this paper makes evidence-based policy recommendations intended to enhance the wellbeing of incarcerated populations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Land Use, Impact Assessment and Sustainability)
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15 pages, 1020 KB  
Commentary
In Situ Provisioning Wildlife with Food, Water, or Shelter after Bushfires: Using a One Welfare Framework to Guide Responses
by Bidda Jones, Catherine Herbert, Samantha Finnerty, Brooke Kennedy, Amy Lykins, John M. Martin, Phil McManus, David Raubenheimer, Michelle Shaw and Paul D. McGreevy
Animals 2023, 13(22), 3518; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13223518 - 14 Nov 2023
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3137
Abstract
Australia’s 2019–2020 bushfires had a devastating impact on animals, humans, and ecosystems. They also demonstrated the lack of evidence or guidance for wildlife provisioning in response to severe fire events when volunteers and wildlife organisations rose to respond. In addition, the unprecedented scale [...] Read more.
Australia’s 2019–2020 bushfires had a devastating impact on animals, humans, and ecosystems. They also demonstrated the lack of evidence or guidance for wildlife provisioning in response to severe fire events when volunteers and wildlife organisations rose to respond. In addition, the unprecedented scale and intensity of the fires and an absence of institutional support for wildlife provisioning meant that well-intentioned interventions were largely uncoordinated and lacked clear short-term, mid-term, and long-term objectives. Fundamentally, a lack of consensus was revealed on whether any such interventions are advisable. Given the strong evidence indicating that future bushfire seasons will become longer and more intense in Australia and elsewhere, the welfare and survival of millions of wild animals are at risk every year. Understanding the impacts of supplementary resource interventions and contributing to the development of best practice information is crucial to inform the response to the next major fire event. Here, we contextualize the arguments for and against provisioning within a ‘One Welfare’ framework that recognizes that animal welfare, biodiversity, and the environment are intertwined with human welfare and community resilience. We propose that the One Welfare approach can facilitate appropriate consideration of the extant scientific and lay literature; local legislation; views of stakeholders; emerging data; and modelling from historic fire events. As a further step, we see merit in engaging with wildlife provisioners and the broader conservation community to build an evidence base for future wildlife provisioning activities. From an informed position, we can encourage beneficial interventions and reduce the risk of negative outcomes. Finally, we propose controlled experiments (e.g., using hazard reduction burns), ongoing data collection using emergent technology, and longitudinal analysis to address shifting research priorities as the climate changes. We conclude that the ordered collection of the necessary evidence relevant to each of the three stakeholder groups in the One Welfare framework has the greatest potential to support an informed policy platform on wildlife provisioning across Australia that is feasible, legal, and sustainable. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Animal Welfare)
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27 pages, 6069 KB  
Article
Multi-Objective Optimization of Ultra-Low Energy Housing in Hot Summer Cold Winter Climate Zone of China Based on a Probabilistic Behavioral Model
by Junmi Xiang, Hongcheng Liu, Xiaojun Li, Phil Jones and Emmanouil Perisoglou
Buildings 2023, 13(5), 1172; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings13051172 - 28 Apr 2023
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3519
Abstract
Occupant behavior has an important impact on building energy consumption, and the accuracy of an occupant behavior model directly affects the reliability of energy consumption simulation results. Ultra-low energy buildings are crucial to achieving building energy conservation and carbon dioxide reduction in China. [...] Read more.
Occupant behavior has an important impact on building energy consumption, and the accuracy of an occupant behavior model directly affects the reliability of energy consumption simulation results. Ultra-low energy buildings are crucial to achieving building energy conservation and carbon dioxide reduction in China. In order to effectively promote the development of ultra-low energy buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Climate Zones. where most residents adopt a “part-time, part-space” pattern of intermittent energy use behavior, and to solve the problem of poor indoor thermal environments and the high incremental cost of ultra-low energy, the study described in this paper takes Changsha as an example to carry out a multi-objective optimization study on ultra-low energy housing using a probabilistic behavioral model. On the basis of a probability model representing the residents’ actual behavior in Changsha, the optimization objective indicators, key variables and the technology benchmarks for ultra-low energy building were determined, then multi-objective optimization was carried out for a range of energy efficient technologies to obtain the Pareto optimal solutions. The results showed that the set of optimal solutions could reduce energy demand by 50.2 to 60.2% and reduce indoor thermal discomfort time by 3.52–11.09% compared with those of a reference base case, which just meets the requirements of the current design standard for energy efficient domestic buildings. An optimum solution for energy savings and indoor thermal comfort, along with economic costs, was identified, which can assist in decision-making by providing different preferences and provide useful reference for the design of ultra-low energy buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Climate regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Indoor Environment and Thermal Comfort Performance of Buildings)
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15 pages, 2401 KB  
Article
Location, Location, Location: Modelling of Noise Mitigation by Urban Woodland Shows the Benefit of Targeted Tree Planting in Cities
by David H. Fletcher, Joanne K. Garrett, Amy Thomas, Alice Fitch, Phil Cryle, Simon Shilton and Laurence Jones
Sustainability 2022, 14(12), 7079; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127079 - 9 Jun 2022
Cited by 32 | Viewed by 6175
Abstract
Noise pollution from road traffic is ubiquitous in modern cities and is the second greatest environmental risk to health in Western Europe. Urban woodland can provide substantial noise mitigation if located properly, yet such considerations are often absent from the urban planning process. [...] Read more.
Noise pollution from road traffic is ubiquitous in modern cities and is the second greatest environmental risk to health in Western Europe. Urban woodland can provide substantial noise mitigation if located properly, yet such considerations are often absent from the urban planning process. Current approaches for quantifying this important ecosystem service (ES) do not account adequately for important spatial factors and are unable to identify effectively the best locations to place new woodland for noise mitigation. We present new methods, in which we exploit the concept of least-cost-distance, to map and value the mitigating effect of urban woodland, and to identify optimal locations to place new woodland. Applying these methods, we show that urban woodland currently provides Birmingham City (UK) with over GBP 3.8 million in noise mitigation benefits, annually. We also show that our new ‘opportunity’ mapping methods effectively identify the best locations for new woodland, achieving close to a maximum service with less than a quarter of the additional woodland needed to achieve it. This has important implications for the design and implementation of urban tree planting for noise mitigation, and these methods can be adapted for other ES, allowing consideration of multiple service outcomes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Designing Resilient Cities by Ecosystem Service Mapping)
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13 pages, 10940 KB  
Article
Establishment of a Genetically Diverse, Disease-Resistant Acacia koa A. Gray Seed Orchard in Kokee, Kauai: Early Growth, Form, and Survival
by Nicklos Dudley, Tyler Jones, Kaitlin Gerber, Amy L. Ross-Davis, Richard A. Sniezko, Phil Cannon and John Dobbs
Forests 2020, 11(12), 1276; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11121276 - 28 Nov 2020
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3910
Abstract
Background and Objectives: Koa (Acacia koa A. Gray) is an economically, ecologically, and culturally valuable tree species endemic to Hawaii. A vascular wilt disease caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. koae Gardner (FOXY) induces high rates of mortality in [...] Read more.
Background and Objectives: Koa (Acacia koa A. Gray) is an economically, ecologically, and culturally valuable tree species endemic to Hawaii. A vascular wilt disease caused by the fungal pathogen Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. koae Gardner (FOXY) induces high rates of mortality in plantings and threatens native koa forests as well. Landowners are reluctant to consider koa for reforestation purposes in many areas due to the risk of mortality caused by FOXY. Producing seeds with genetic resistance to FOXY is vital to successful koa reforestation and restoration. The Hawaii Agriculture Research Center (HARC), with both public and private partners, operates a tree improvement program to develop wilt-resistant koa populations in Hawaii. The population genetics of koa is poorly understood and seed zones are evolving. Thus, HARC uses provisional seed zones based on genetic and biogeographic variables and has selected wilt-resistant koa populations that are locally found in Kokee, Kauai (eco-regions) of Hawaii. Materials and Methods: To make these selections, virulent FOXY isolates were used in previous seedling inoculation trials to evaluate resistance levels among koa families in greenhouse experiments, and the most resistant families were used in the field trial reported here. Results: In this trial, survival rates two years after planting varied by family, and ranged from 45% to 95%, but all resistant families had greater survival rates than the susceptible control (25%). The trial has been converted to a seed orchard. Conclusions: The higher survival rates of the families are encouraging and seeds coming from the orchard will improve the success of future restoration and reforestation efforts. Within these resistant families it was also possible to make some selections based on height, growth, diameter, and stem form. Thus, the establishment of a wilt-resistant seed orchard results in locally adapted, eco-region specific, disease-resistant koa seed that will allow for the restoration of this iconic species and provide plant material for commercial reforestation opportunities at the landscape level. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Scientific Basis of the Target Plant Concept)
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20 pages, 2905 KB  
Article
Presentation, Treatment Response and Short-Term Outcomes in Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome Temporally Associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS)
by Susanna Felsenstein, Emily Willis, Hannah Lythgoe, Liza McCann, Andrew Cleary, Kamran Mahmood, David Porter, Jessica Jones, Janet McDonagh, Alice Chieng, Giulia Varnier, Stephen Hughes, Mary Boullier, Fiona Ryan, Olumoyin Awogbemi, Giridhar Soda, Phuoc Duong, Clare Pain, Phil Riley and Christian M. Hedrich
J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9(10), 3293; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9103293 - 14 Oct 2020
Cited by 59 | Viewed by 8829
Abstract
The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pathogen responsible for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whilst most children and young people develop mild symptoms, recent reports suggest a novel paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS). Case definition [...] Read more.
The novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the pathogen responsible for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whilst most children and young people develop mild symptoms, recent reports suggest a novel paediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS). Case definition and classification are preliminary, treatment is empiric and disease-associated outcomes are unclear. Here, we report 29 patients with PIMS-TS who were diagnosed, admitted and treated in the English North West between March and June 2020. Consistent with patterns observed internationally, cases peaked approximately 4 weeks after the initial surge of COVID-19-like symptoms in the UK population. Clinical symptoms included fever (100%), skin rashes (72%), cardiovascular involvement (86%), conjunctivitis (62%) and respiratory involvement (21%). Some patients had clinical features partially resembling Kawasaki disease (KD), toxic shock syndrome and cytokine storm syndrome. Male gender (69%), black, Asian and other minority ethnicities (BAME, 59%) were over-represented. Immune modulating treatment was used in all, including intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), corticosteroids and cytokine blockers. Notably, 32% of patients treated with IVIG alone went into remission. The rest required additional treatment, usually corticosteroids, with the exception of two patients who were treated with TNF inhibition and IL-1 blockade, respectively. Another patient received IL-1 inhibition as primary therapy, with associated rapid and sustained remission. Randomized and prospective studies are needed to investigate efficacy and safety of treatment, especially as resources of IVIG may be depleted secondary to high demand during future waves of COVID-19. Full article
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8 pages, 698 KB  
Article
Validity and Reliability of a Commercially-Available Velocity and Power Testing Device
by Andrew T. Askow, Jason D. Stone, Daniel J. Arndts, Adam C. King, Shiho Goto, Joseph P. Hannon, J. Craig Garrison, James M. Bothwell, Phil E. Esposito, Andrew R. Jagim, Margaret T. Jones, Will Jennings and Jonathan M. Oliver
Sports 2018, 6(4), 170; https://doi.org/10.3390/sports6040170 - 10 Dec 2018
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 6382
Abstract
Given the relationship between explosive-type training and power adaptation, tracking movement velocity has become popular. However, unlike previous variables, tracking velocity necessitates the use of a valid and reliable tool to monitor adaptation over time. Therefore, the primary purpose of this research was [...] Read more.
Given the relationship between explosive-type training and power adaptation, tracking movement velocity has become popular. However, unlike previous variables, tracking velocity necessitates the use of a valid and reliable tool to monitor adaptation over time. Therefore, the primary purpose of this research was to assess the validity and reliability of a commercially-available linear position transducer (LPT). Nine resistance-trained men completed four sessions consisting of a single set of barbell back squat to volitional failure at 75% or 90% one-repetition maximum. Kinetic and kinematic data were captured for each repetition by the LPT and a 3-dimensional motion capture system and bipedal force platforms. In total, 357 instances of data from both systems were analyzed using intraclass correlations (ICC), effect size estimates, and standard error of measurement. Overall, the LPT yielded excellent ICCs (all ≥0.94) and small/trivial differences (d < 0.60). When categorized by median values, ICCs remained high (all ≥0.89) and differences remained small or trivial with the exception of high peak velocities (d = −1.46). Together, these data indicate that the commercially-available LPT is a valid and reliable measure for kinetic and kinematic variables of interest with the exception of high peak velocities. Full article
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22 pages, 1154 KB  
Article
Do Inequalities in Neighborhood Walkability Drive Disparities in Older Adults’ Outdoor Walking?
by Razieh Zandieh, Johannes Flacke, Javier Martinez, Phil Jones and Martin Van Maarseveen
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(7), 740; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070740 - 7 Jul 2017
Cited by 71 | Viewed by 10102
Abstract
Older residents of high-deprivation areas walk less than those of low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that neighborhood built environment may support and encourage outdoor walking. The extent to which the built environment supports and encourages walking is called “walkability”. This study examines [...] Read more.
Older residents of high-deprivation areas walk less than those of low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that neighborhood built environment may support and encourage outdoor walking. The extent to which the built environment supports and encourages walking is called “walkability”. This study examines inequalities in neighborhood walkability in high- versus low-deprivation areas and their possible influences on disparities in older adults’ outdoor walking levels. For this purpose, it focuses on specific neighborhood built environment attributes (residential density, land-use mix and intensity, street connectivity, and retail density) relevant to neighborhood walkability. It applied a mixed-method approach, included 173 participants (≥65 years), and used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and walking interviews (with a sub-sample) to objectively and subjectively measure neighborhood built environment attributes. Outdoor walking levels were measured by using the Geographic Positioning System (GPS) technology. Data on personal characteristics was collected by completing a questionnaire. The results show that inequalities in certain land-use intensity (i.e., green spaces, recreation centers, schools and industries) in high- versus low-deprivation areas may influence disparities in older adults’ outdoor walking levels. Modifying neighborhood land use intensity may help to encourage outdoor walking in high-deprivation areas. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Social and Environmental Influences on Physical Activity Behaviours)
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20 pages, 1778 KB  
Review
Characterisation of Nature-Based Solutions for the Built Environment
by Yangang Xing, Phil Jones and Iain Donnison
Sustainability 2017, 9(1), 149; https://doi.org/10.3390/su9010149 - 20 Jan 2017
Cited by 156 | Viewed by 25065
Abstract
Nature has provided humankind with food, fuel, and shelter throughout evolutionary history. However, in contemporary cities, many natural landscapes have become degraded and replaced with impermeable hard surfaces (e.g., roads, paving, car parks and buildings). The reversal of this trend is dynamic, complex [...] Read more.
Nature has provided humankind with food, fuel, and shelter throughout evolutionary history. However, in contemporary cities, many natural landscapes have become degraded and replaced with impermeable hard surfaces (e.g., roads, paving, car parks and buildings). The reversal of this trend is dynamic, complex and still in its infancy. There are many facets of urban greening initiatives involving multiple benefits, sensitivities and limitations. The aim of this paper is to develop a characterisation method of nature based solutions for designing and retrofitting in the built environment, and to facilitate knowledge transfer between disciplines and for design optimisation. Based on a review of the literature across disciplines, key characteristics could be organised into four groups: policy and community initiatives, multiple benefits assessment, topology, and design options. Challenges and opportunities for developing a characterisation framework to improve the use of nature based solutions in the built environment are discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Challenges)
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24 pages, 2675 KB  
Article
Older Adults’ Outdoor Walking: Inequalities in Neighbourhood Safety, Pedestrian Infrastructure and Aesthetics
by Razieh Zandieh, Javier Martinez, Johannes Flacke, Phil Jones and Martin Van Maarseveen
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13(12), 1179; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13121179 - 25 Nov 2016
Cited by 107 | Viewed by 12708
Abstract
Older adults living in high-deprivation areas walk less than those living in low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that older adults’ outdoor walking levels are related to the neighbourhood built environment. This study examines inequalities in perceived built environment attributes (i.e., safety, pedestrian [...] Read more.
Older adults living in high-deprivation areas walk less than those living in low-deprivation areas. Previous research has shown that older adults’ outdoor walking levels are related to the neighbourhood built environment. This study examines inequalities in perceived built environment attributes (i.e., safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetics) and their possible influences on disparities in older adults’ outdoor walking levels in low- and high-deprivation areas of Birmingham, United Kingdom. It applied a mixed-method approach, included 173 participants (65 years and over), used GPS technology to measure outdoor walking levels, used questionnaires (for all participants) and conducted walking interviews (with a sub-sample) to collect data on perceived neighbourhood built environment attributes. The results show inequalities in perceived neighbourhood safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetics in high- versus low-deprivation areas and demonstrate that they may influence disparities in participants’ outdoor walking levels. Improvements of perceived neighbourhood safety, pedestrian infrastructure and aesthetic in high-deprivation areas are encouraged. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Aging and Health Promotion)
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28 pages, 2910 KB  
Review
Review: Improving the Impact of Plant Science on Urban Planning and Design
by Peter C. Wootton-Beard, Yangang Xing, Raghavalu Thirumalai Durai Prabhakaran, Paul Robson, Maurice Bosch, Judith M. Thornton, Graham A. Ormondroyd, Phil Jones and Iain Donnison
Buildings 2016, 6(4), 48; https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings6040048 - 16 Nov 2016
Cited by 28 | Viewed by 19568
Abstract
Urban planning is a vital process in determining the functionality of future cities. It is predicted that at least two thirds of the world’s citizens will reside in towns and cities by the middle of this century, up from one third in the [...] Read more.
Urban planning is a vital process in determining the functionality of future cities. It is predicted that at least two thirds of the world’s citizens will reside in towns and cities by the middle of this century, up from one third in the middle of the previous century. Not only is it essential to provide space for work and dwelling, but also for their well-being. Well-being is inextricably linked with the surrounding environment, and natural landscapes have a potent positive effect. For this reason, the inclusion and management of urban green infrastructure has become a topic of increasing scientific interest. Elements of this infrastructure, including green roofs and façades are of growing importance to operators in each stage of the planning, design and construction process in urban areas. Currently, there is a strong recognition that “green is good”. Despite the positive recognition of urban greenery, and the concerted efforts to include more of it in cities, greater scientific attention is needed to better understand its role in the urban environment. For example, many solutions are cleverly engineered without giving sufficient consideration to the biology of the vegetation that is used. This review contends that whilst “green is good” is a positive mantra to promote the inclusion of urban greenery, there is a significant opportunity to increase the contribution of plant science to the process of urban planning through both green infrastructure, and biomimicry. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Biomimetics in Sustainable Architectural and Urban Design)
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33 pages, 540 KB  
Article
Catchment-Scale Modeling of Nitrogen Dynamics in a Temperate Forested Watershed, Oregon. An Interdisciplinary Communication Strategy
by Kellie Vaché, Lutz Breuer, Julia Jones and Phil Sollins
Water 2015, 7(10), 5345-5377; https://doi.org/10.3390/w7105345 - 12 Oct 2015
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 6054
Abstract
We present a systems modeling approach to the development of a place-based ecohydrological model. The conceptual model is calibrated to a variety of existing observations, taken in watershed 10 (WS10) at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in Oregon, USA, a long term [...] Read more.
We present a systems modeling approach to the development of a place-based ecohydrological model. The conceptual model is calibrated to a variety of existing observations, taken in watershed 10 (WS10) at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in Oregon, USA, a long term ecological research (LTER) site with a long history of catchment-scale data collection. The modeling framework was designed to help document and evaluate an evolving understanding of catchment processing of water, nitrogen, and carbon that has developed over the many years of on-going research at the site. We use the dynamic model to capture the temporal variation in the N and C budgets and to evaluate how different components of the complex system may control the retention and release of N in this pristine forested landscape. Results indicate that the relative roles of multiple competing controls on N change seasonally, between periods of wet/dry and growth/senescence. The model represents a communication strategy to facilitate dialog between disciplinary experimentalists and modelers, to produce a more complete picture of nitrogen cycling in the region. We view this explicit development of complete, yet conceptually simplified models as a useful and important way to evaluate complex environmental dynamics. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hydro-Ecological Modeling)
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25 pages, 1193 KB  
Article
Mapping Forest Canopy Height Across Large Areas by Upscaling ALS Estimates with Freely Available Satellite Data
by Phil Wilkes, Simon D. Jones, Lola Suarez, Andrew Mellor, William Woodgate, Mariela Soto-Berelov, Andrew Haywood and Andrew K. Skidmore
Remote Sens. 2015, 7(9), 12563-12587; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70912563 - 23 Sep 2015
Cited by 59 | Viewed by 12779
Abstract
Operational assessment of forest structure is an on-going challenge for land managers, particularly over large, remote or inaccessible areas. Here, we present an easily adopted method for generating a continuous map of canopy height at a 30 m resolution, demonstrated over 2.9 million [...] Read more.
Operational assessment of forest structure is an on-going challenge for land managers, particularly over large, remote or inaccessible areas. Here, we present an easily adopted method for generating a continuous map of canopy height at a 30 m resolution, demonstrated over 2.9 million hectares of highly heterogeneous forest (canopy height 0–70 m) in Victoria, Australia. A two-stage approach was utilized where Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) derived canopy height, captured over ~18% of the study area, was used to train a regression tree ensemble method; random forest. Predictor variables, which have a global coverage and are freely available, included Landsat Thematic Mapper (Tasselled Cap transformed), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission elevation data and other ancillary datasets. Reflectance variables were further processed to extract additional spatial and temporal contextual and textural variables. Modeled canopy height was validated following two approaches; (i) random sample cross validation; and (ii) with 108 inventory plots from outside the ALS capture extent. Both the cross validation and comparison with inventory data indicate canopy height can be estimated with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of ≤ 31% (~5.6 m) at the 95th percentile confidence interval. Subtraction of the systematic component of model error, estimated from training data error residuals, rescaled canopy height values to more accurately represent the response variable distribution tails e.g., tall and short forest. Two further experiments were carried out to test the applicability and scalability of the presented method. Results suggest that (a) no improvement in canopy height estimation is achieved when models were constructed and validated for smaller geographic areas, suggesting there is no upper limit to model scalability; and (b) training data can be captured over a small percentage of the study area (~6%) if response and predictor variable variance is captured within the training cohort, however RMSE is higher than when compared to a stratified random sample. Full article
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14 pages, 2760 KB  
Article
Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data
by Heiko Balzter, Nicholas J. Tate, Jörg Kaduk, David Harper, Susan Page, Ross Morrison, Michael Muskulus and Phil Jones
Climate 2015, 3(1), 227-240; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010227 - 6 Mar 2015
Cited by 28 | Viewed by 14906
Abstract
Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts [...] Read more.
Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v) is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014) are different from the long-term average (1850–1960). For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the statistical properties of climate time-series data that can go undetected using traditional methods. Full article
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23 pages, 720 KB  
Article
The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming
by Pedro Llanillo, Phil D. Jones and Roland Von Glasow
Atmosphere 2010, 1(1), 62-84; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos1010062 - 10 Dec 2010
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 13155
Abstract
We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM) to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Several [...] Read more.
We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM) to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary. Full article
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