Special Issue "Biological Implications of Climate Change"

Guest Editor
Prof. Lesley Hughes
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, NSW, 2109, Australia
Website: http://www.bio.mq.edu.au/piccel/lhughes.html
E-Mail: lesley.hughes@mq.edu.au

Dear Colleagues,

Global biological systems face unprecedented challenges from rapid human-induced climate change. Many species and communities are already degraded and stressed from other anthropogenic impacts, and climate change is expected to interact with, and in some cases, exacerbate these stresses. Further, the rapid rate of anticipated change will exceed the capacity of many species to either undergo genetic change, or to shift to more suitable habitat. Many species around the globe are already responding to the climatic changes experienced over the past few decades, with evidence of changes in life cycles, distributions, and populations. Cascading effects on species interactions, community structure and ecosystem function are also being documented at an accelerating rate. This special issue will focus on climate change as a current and future pervasive driver of change for the life support systems of the planet.

Prof. Lesley Hughes
Guest Editor

Submission

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• phenology
• distributions
• extinction
• interactions
• adaptive capacity

Type of Paper: Review
Title: Impacts of Climate Change on Reproductive Traits
Authors: Vera M. Grazer and Oliver Y. Martin
Affiliation: Institute for Integrative Biology, ETH Zürich, Switzerland; E-Mail:oliver.martin@env.ethz.ch
Abstract: It is now generally acknowledged that climate change has wide ranging biological impacts potentially leading to declines in biodiversity. Environmental factors, such as temperature, can have diverse and often strong effects on reproduction, with obvious ramifications for population fitness. Nevertheless, reproductive traits are often neglected in conservation considerations, although reproduction is particularly temperature sensitive because of direct effects on physiology. Focusing on animals, recent progress in sexual selection and sexual conflict research suggests that reproductive costs may pose an underestimated hurdle during rapid climate change potentially lowering adaptive potential and increasing extinction risk of certain populations. In poikilothermic animals, however, short-term temperature changes can have positive or negative effects on reproduction. We provide an overview of the short-term responses to rapid temperature changes, in particular regarding specific reproductive traits. Using this framework we propose novel ideas concerning future efforts dealing with reproductive consequences of climate change.

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Predicting Current and Future Potential Habitat of a Threatened Foundation Species
Authors: D. Ikeda, K. Ironside and N Cobb
Affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Geospatial Research and Information Laboratory, and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA; E-Mail: Neil.Cobb@nau.edu
Abstract: The Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens) is a threatened fossorial mammal that is considered a foundation species.  Due to its presumed sensitivity to climate change and poorly understood habitat requirements, we developed a spatially explicit model of suitable habitat.  Using the species distribution model algorithm Maxent, coupled with five general circulation models (GCMs) and one ensemble forecast, we identified present-day areas for potential translocation and predicted potential suitable habitat range shifts for three future time periods.  Three major patterns emerged: 1) Climatic variables alone were excellent predictors of suitable habitat, suggesting high sensitivity to climate change; 2) The Utah prairie dog is only occupying 3% of suitable habitat, supporting the view that plague and humans have greatly reduced populations, but indicating the potential for translocation opportunities; 3) All GCMs predicted modest increases in suitable habitat between 2010-2039 with declines starting in 2040, and by the end of the century virtually all suitable habitats will be outside the range of natural dispersal.  Even if extinction does not occur, the species could lose at least 96% of current suitable habitat by the end of the century without human-assisted migration to future suitable climates. While our models suggest that there is at least 30 years before the negative effects of climate change impact this species, serious challenges to its survival are predicted, necessitating actions to reverse these effects.

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Using Natural Gradients to Infer a Potential Response to Climate Change: an Example on the Reproductive Performance of Dactylis Glomerata
Author: Matteo Dainese
Affiliation: Department of Land and Agro-forest Environments, University of Padova, Italy; E-Mail: matteo.dainese@unipd.it
Abstract: An understanding of the climate conditions governing spatial variation in reproductive performance of plants can provide important information about the factors characterizing plant community structure and influencing fitness in natural plant populations, especially in the context of climate warming. Few studies, however, have investigated the potential effect of warming on the reproductive output of plants. This study focuses on the effect of climate on sexual reproductive output of Dactylis glomerata L., a perennial grass species widely distributed throughout temperate regions. An indirect space-for-time substitution procedure was used by surveying different populations of the same target species along an elevation gradient and using the existing climatic differences to infer a potential response to climate change over time. Thus, I quantified the shape and strength of relationships between reproductive performance and a range of environmental variables.

Type of Paper: Review
Title: Implications of Climate Change for the Tree of Life
Authors: Daniel P. Faith and Zoe T. Richards
Affiliation: The Australian Museum, Sydney, Australia; E-Mail: danfaith9@yahoo.com.au (D.P.F.); Zoe.Richards@austmus.gov.au (Z.T. R.)
Abstract: The possible loss of whole branches from the tree of life is a dramatic, but under-studied, biological implication of climate change. The tree of life represents an evolutionary heritage providing both present and future benefits to humanity, often in unanticipated ways. Losses in this evolutionary (evo) life-support system represent losses in “evosystem” services, and are quantified using the phylogenetic diversity (PD) measure. High species-level biodiversity losses may or may not correspond to high PD losses. If climate change impacts are clumped on the phylogeny, then loss of deeper phylogenetic branches can mean disproportionately large PD loss for a given degree of species loss. Over time, successive species extinctions within a clade each may imply only a moderate loss of PD, until the last species within that clade goes extinct, and PD drops precipitously. Emerging methods of “phylogenetic risk analysis” address such phylogenetic tipping points by adjusting conservation priorities to better reflect risk of such worst-case losses. We have further developed and explored this approach for one of the most threatened taxonomic groups, corals. Based on a phylogenetic tree for the genus Acropora, we identify cases where possible PD tipping points may be avoided by designing risk-averse conservation priorities.

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Evidence of Population-level Climatic Adaptation and Differential Responses to Extreme, Climate Change-type Drought in Two Invasive and Native Grasses
Authors: Robert Godfree1, Bruce Robertson and David Marshall
Affiliation: CSIRO Plant Industry, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT, Australia 2902, Australia; E-Mail: Robert.Godfree@csiro.au
Abstract: Predicting the response of plant species to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events expected under climate change remains a central challenge in ecology.  One area of particular uncertainty is the relative capacity of invasive and native species to persist in the face of a deteriorating climate through adaptive differentiation of populations or phenotypic plasticity in growth or reproductive traits.  In this study we compare the growth and productivity of four sympatric populations of two closely related stipoid grasses, the highly invasive Nassella neesiana and the native Austrostipa bigeniculata, when placed under experimental atmospheric warming (+ 2°C), CO2 enrichment (550 ppm), and drought.  Both species occupy similar climatic ranges in southeastern Australia and the populations were collected from along a xeric-mesic climatic cline.  Our data show that while growth and productivity of N. neesiana far exceeded that of A. bigeniculata, the latter species responded more strongly to enhanced winter temperatures.  Both species were strongly negatively affected by extreme drought conditions; enrichment of atmospheric CO2 partially, but not entirely, offset these losses.  Of the two species Nassella neesiana displayed the highest level of inter-population quantitative genetic variability, but a lower level of variability within populations. However, this did not appear to be obviously linked to selection for climate-related traits, but instead the impact of historical population bottlenecks near the edge of the species range. These results suggest that although invasive species may exhibit more rapid growth and higher fitness that co-occuring native species, newly established populations could also be at a comparative evolutionary disadvantage due to the impact of founder effects on genetic diversity.

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Linking Dynamic Energy Budget Theory and Hydrology to Select Sites for the Assisted Colonisation of Australia's Rarest Reptile.
Authors: Nicola Mitchell ¹, Matthew Hipsey ², Michael Kearney ³, Sophie Arnall ¹, Gavan McGrath ² and Gerald Kuchling ⁴
Affiliations: ¹ School of Animal Biology, The University of Western Australia, Crawley WA 6009, Australia
² School of Earth and Environment, The University of Western Australia, Crawley WA 6009, Australia, 3 Department of Zoology, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia, 4 Department of Environment and Conservation, Swan Coastal District, Wanneroo WA 6065, Australia; E-Mail: nicola.mitchell@uwa.edu.au
Abstract: Assisted colonisation (the deliberate movement of species to climatically suitable regions) is a controversial management tool that aims to prevent the extinction of populations that are unable to migrate in response to climate change. The identification of suitable translocation sites is therefore a pressing issue, but correlative climate-envelope models, which are based on occurrence data, are of limited use for species with historically restricted distributions. In contrast, mechanistic models hold considerable promise for site selection. We are integrating ecoenergetic and hydrological models to assess the longer-term suitability of the current habitat of the world's rarest chelonian, the Western Swamp Tortoise (Psuedemydura umbrina).  P. umbrina is naturally restricted to a single breeding population in the south west of Western Australia, where a relatively rapid decline in seasonal winter rainfall has resulted in shorter hydroperiods and reduced foraging and breeding opportunities for tortoises. Our coupled model allows us to drive the dynamic energy budget of the tortoise based on hydrological projections of its current habitat, and the process can be repeated across a range of future climates. The same model is also a powerful tool for identifying novel habitats where tortoises could persist under future climates. Here we present a preliminary screening model of suitable translocation sites for P. umbrina and in so doing demonstrate an approach for guiding the assisted colonisation of other threatened wetland species.

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Cumulative Effects of Climate Warming and Eutrophication on the Habitat-forming Rockweed Ascophyllum nodosum
Authors: L. Kay, A. L. Schmidt and H. K. Lotze
Affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2 Canada; E-Mail: heike.lotze@dal.ca; lr533331@dal.ca
Abstract: Perennial seaweeds, such as Ascophyllum nodosum, are dominant primary producers and foundation species along rocky shores worldwide and play important roles in storing carbon, cycling nutrients and providing habitat and food for a diverse community of associated fauna and flora. Rockweed is also economically important with harvests increasing in recent decades. Yet, the response of rockweed to current and predicted increases in nutrient loading and sea surface temperature in coastal waters is not well understood. We designed a laboratory experiment to test the effects of four nutrient enrichment levels and three temperatures on rockweed growth, nitrogen retention and carbon storage. Rockweed growth slowed at higher temperatures whereas nutrient enrichment directly enhanced growth at low temperatures yet promoted epiphyte growth at higher temperatures. Tissue nitrogen increased with nutrient enrichment, while there was no effect on tissue carbon. Our results show that the effects of nutrient loading and climate warming on rockweed are cumulative with potentially negative ecological and economic consequences today and in the future.

Type of Paper: Article 
Title: The Impacts of Global Warming on a Coastal Sea 
Authors: Catharina J.M. Philippart and Eric H.G. Epping
Affiliation: Department of Marine Ecology, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg (Texel), The Netherlands; E-Mail: katja.philippart@nioz.nl
Abstract: The Wadden Sea is one of the largest coastal seas in the world, characterized by extensive wetlands, high biotic production, and valuable recreational and commercial fisheries. Throughout its history, several drivers (e.g., large infrastructural works, eutrophication, fisheries , pollutants, and invasive species) have changed the functioning of the Wadden Sea ecosystem during. Since the mid-1980s, the annual water temperatures are rising with an average rate of approximately +0,3 °C y-1 (1988-2010). This warming has already affected crucial aspects of the coastal ecosystem, such as a decline in the recruitment success of various bivalve species and an increase in biodiversity of the macrozoobenthos. Recent climate scenarios for this area predict a continuation of the rise in temperature, ranging between +2°C and +6°C. This further warming may lead to major changes in the present balance between tidal and subtidal areas, between autotrophy and heterotrophy, between pelagic and benthic production, and between the import and export of energy and matter.