Special Issue "Sustainable Futures"

Guest Editor
Dr. Bruce E. Tonn
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37831-6038, USA
Website: http://www.esd.ornl.gov/people/tonn/index.shtml
E-Mail:
Interests: energy policy; environmental policy; sustainability; foresight; futures analysis; decision making under uncertainty; technology assessment; energy program evaluation

Dear Colleagues,

The purpose of this special issue is to explore sustainability from a futures perspective. Useful futures analyses do not attempt to predict the future. Instead good futures analyses work to imagine, describe, and/or create possible futures in such ways as to identify issues of concern for today’s decision makers. The papers in this special issue should address these types of questions related to helping today’s decision makers better understand future trends and issues related to sustainability. What progress can be made towards achieving sustainability in the next fifteen to twenty years? Are there any potential breakthrough technologies on the horizon that could make achieving sustainability easier or even more difficult? What about the convergence of new technologies? Are trends in politics, economics, and culture that may play out over the next twenty or more years consistent with achieving sustainability goals or inconsistent? What socio-economic breakthroughs are needed to support the achievement of sustainability? What should be done today to remove barriers to potential technological and socio-economic breakthroughs? What on-the-ground models for a self-sufficiency version of sustainability might emerge in the future and can these models co-exist with each other? Are there sustainability challenges in the deep future, centuries or longer from now, that are qualitatively different from those being addressed today that require the attention of today’s generation?

Dr. Bruce E. Tonn
Guest Editor

• sustainability
• futures
• breakthrough technologies
• self-sufficiency
• energy policy
• environmental policy

Type of Paper: Article
Title: The Century Ahead - Is Sustainability Feasible?
Author: Paul Raskin
Affiliaton: Tellus Institute, 11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA 02116, USA; E-Mail: praskin@tellus.org
Abstract: Building on earlier work of the Global Scenario Group, this paper presents four contrasting global scenarios for the twenty-first Century, featuring brief narratives and integrated quantifications across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Alternative pathways for meeting a set of sustainability targets are evaluated, focussing on a comparison of conventional and transformative strategies: Policy Reform versus Great Transition. The findings are compared and contrasted to other major sustainability studies. The role of a fundamental shift in the development paradigm, including much greater equity and less material growth, for increasing the feasibility of sustainability is stressed.

Title: Striving for Sustainability in the Face of Unprecedented Change: Some Lessons and Opportunities Stemming From the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak in British Columbia, Canada
Author: Philip J. Burton
Affiliation: Canadian Forest Service & University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, British Columbia, V2N 4Z9, Canada; E-Mail: Phil.Burton@NRCan-RNCan.gc.ca
Abstract: A massive insect outbreak in the public forests of central British Columbia (Canada) calls into question the very basis for sustainable forest management planning. Tree mortality caused by natural disturbances has always been a part of wild and managed forests, but climate change is accentuating the uncertainty around such losses. Policy responses to accelerate overall timber harvesting levels to prevent further tree mortality and to salvage value from dead wood before it deteriorates are disruptive and may even be counter-productive in the long run. Current alternatives are to strategically redirect existing timber harvesting quotas to the most vulnerable areas, minimize overall uplifts in cutting activity, prolong the period over which harvested timber can be processed, avoid harvesting of mixed species stands or those with good advance regeneration, employ more partial cutting or ‘selective logging’ techniques, and relax standards for acceptable species and inter-tree spacing during post-disturbance stand recovery. At the same time, careful attention to species composition and changing landscape risk profiles may facilitate adaptation to anticipated climate change. In the long term, sustainable harvesting levels must be set conservatively in order to assure continuity of timber supply and habitat, and to facilitate fewer disruptions to regional socio-economics and less stress to ecosystems. Broader lessons in sustainability include the need to emphasize persistence and continuity at the expense of maximized production and full resource utilization.
Keywords: climate change; even flow; forest disturbance; forest policy; insect outbreak; salvage logging; sustainable forest management; timber supply

Type of Paper: Review
Title: Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning: Barriers and Prospects
Author: Peter R. Mulvihill
Affiliation: Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada; E-Mail: prm@yorku.ca
Abstract: There is wide agreement that a transition toward deeper forms of sustainability would require transformational changes at many levels, transcending current patterns of incremental progress. Transformational changes might only occur, in many instances, over time frames that extend well beyond those of mainstream approaches to planning. The need for more explicit attention to longer term futures is reflected in the increasing use of scenario-based processes applied to sustainability challenges. The full potential of scenario development remains, however, largely untapped; many audiences have yet to be engaged, intrigued and influenced by them. This review article explores key barriers to more effective use of scenario development in relation to sustainability challenges, including: 1) the persistent predictive orientation of sustainability planning exercises; 2) the relatively low level of interest in weak signals and their implications; 3) aversion to abstract and tangential planning; and 4) the predominance of an essentialist perspective. Key literature is reviewed and prospects for overcoming these barriers are discussed.
Key words: sustainability; transformational change; futures; scenario development; weak signals; abstract planning; non-essentialism.

Title: Sustainable Energy Futures: Orientations and Challenges for Transforming the Energy System
Authors: Armin Grunwald and Jürgen Kopfmüller
Affiliation: Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), P.O. box 36 40, 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany; E-Mail: armin.grunwald@kit.edu (A.G.)
Abstract: The energy system (supply, transport and usage) is of highest importance for societal development and for the implementation of sustainable development as well. Main sustainability problems are related to ensuring future energy supply facing globally growing demand but regarding limited natural resources, to emissions against the background of environmental pollution and climate change, to risks to human health and life related with specific energy technologies, and to the problem of equity facing the extremely unequal access to regular energy supply in different parts of the World. In this contribution we will, at first, summarize and classify different perspectives on what sustainability could or should mean in the field of energy, based on specific problem diagnoses. This analysis marks clearly the need for a closer look at and for clarifications of the conceptual side of sustainable development. The integrative concept of sustainable development introduced in this respect then allows deriving guiding principles for transforming the energy system. We will confront the results of this consideration with other images of sustainable energy futures in order to allow conclusions about fields of consensus and areas of dissense, and to identify the next steps required in the analysis and debate of sustainable energy futures.