Sustainability 2010, 2(8), 2449-2466; doi:10.3390/su2082449
Review

Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy

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Received: 24 June 2010; in revised form: 15 July 2010 / Accepted: 21 July 2010 / Published: 30 July 2010
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Futures)
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Abstract: There is wide agreement that a transition toward deeper forms of sustainability would require transformational changes at many levels, transcending current patterns of incremental progress. Transformational changes might only occur, in many instances, over time frames that extend well beyond those of mainstream approaches to planning. The need for more explicit attention to longer term futures is reflected in the increasing use of scenario-based processes applied to sustainability challenges. The full potential of scenario development remains, however, largely untapped; many audiences have yet to be engaged, intrigued and influenced by them. This review article explores key barriers to more effective use of scenario development in relation to sustainability challenges, including: (1) the persistent predictive orientation of sustainability planning exercises; (2) the relatively low level of interest in weak signals and their implications; (3) institutionalized aversion to long term planning; and (4) the predominance of an essentialist perspective.
Keywords: scenarios; scenario development; scenario building in support of sustainability strategy (SBSS); weak signals; essentialism
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Mulvihill, P.R.; Kramkowski, V. Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy. Sustainability 2010, 2, 2449-2466.

AMA Style

Mulvihill PR, Kramkowski V. Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy. Sustainability. 2010; 2(8):2449-2466.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mulvihill, Peter R.; Kramkowski, Victoria. 2010. "Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy." Sustainability 2, no. 8: 2449-2466.


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