Special Issue "Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate"

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 March 2018)

Special Issue Editor

Guest Editor
Dr. Jing-Jia Luo

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, Australia
Website | E-Mail
Interests: climate science; climate model development; climate prediction; climate application; decadal variability; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Decadal (longer than seven years) variability and predictability of climate has been highlighted as a priority area for research over past decades. Special attentions have been paid to the mechanisms of: 1) decadal variability in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans; 2) the importance of ocean processes, ocean-atmosphere interactions, tropical-extratropical interactions, and inter-basin interactions in decadal variability; 3) ENSO-decadal variability interactions; 4) the importance of decadal variability in modulating global climate change; 5) external forcing of decadal variability; 6) decadal variation of ENSO and its predictability; and 7) decadal variability of mode waters, extremes, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, ice extent, glacier, soil moisture, radiative forcing, and so on. In addition, the socio-economic and environmental impacts of decadal variability and the prediction of decadal variability and climate change have also attracted many attentions. In this special issue, we aim to bring together theoretical, observational, and modelling studies and to review and advance our understanding and prediction of both internally-induced and externally-forced decadal variability with a special emphasis on, but not limited to, the interactions between different ocean basins and between ocean, atmosphere, ice, and land.

Dr. Jing-Jia Luo
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All papers will be peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 550 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • decadal variability
  • climate change
  • inter-basin interactions
  • ocean-atmosphere interactions
  • decadal predictability and prediction
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • Atlantic multi-decadal variability
  • ENSO and decadal variability
  • decadal change of global warming rate

Published Papers (7 papers)

View options order results:
result details:
Displaying articles 1-7
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle A First Regional-Scale Estimate of Climate-Driven Terrestrial Carbon Export in Boreal Catchments
Climate 2018, 6(2), 22; doi:10.3390/cli6020022
Received: 19 February 2018 / Revised: 26 March 2018 / Accepted: 27 March 2018 / Published: 29 March 2018
PDF Full-text (6091 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Highly dynamic hydro-geomorphic processes are known to drive exports of carbon (C) from river basins, but are not yet fully understood. Within this study, we simulated total organic carbon (TOC) exports at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi in the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland)
[...] Read more.
Highly dynamic hydro-geomorphic processes are known to drive exports of carbon (C) from river basins, but are not yet fully understood. Within this study, we simulated total organic carbon (TOC) exports at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi in the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland) with a parsimonious hydrological model. With thorough consideration of the dependence of erosion and sediment transport processes on seasonal precipitation rates, a satisfactory agreement was obtained between modelling and experimental observations (1962–2005). This provided confidence in the capability of the parsimonious model to represent temporal and spatial export dynamics. In the period 1860–2014, TOC export at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi was estimated to be highest on average (~5.5 Mg km−2·year−1) over 1974–2014 while the lowest TOC export (~2.5 Mg km−2·year−1) was estimated in 1860–1918 (with high levels of interannual-to-multidecadal variation). Regional simulations indicate that TOC increased in recent decades (on average, 4–5 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1974–2014 against ~3 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1940–1973) in northern Scandinavia and Finland. Warming-induced variability of TOC (which depends on precipitation patterns) may have altered the rates of C exchanges in aquatic ecosystems over recent years. TOC exports may continue to increase in boreal catchments with increasing temperatures as represented by future projections. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle Different Behaviours of the Ross and Weddell Seas Surface Heat Fluxes in the Period 1972–2015
Climate 2018, 6(1), 17; doi:10.3390/cli6010017
Received: 13 February 2018 / Revised: 8 March 2018 / Accepted: 12 March 2018 / Published: 14 March 2018
PDF Full-text (1833 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Operational analyses and re-analyses, provided by ECMWF for the period 1972–2015, were used to investigate the behaviour of the surface heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere, estimated via empirical formulae, over the Ross and Weddell Seas. The presence and thickness of sea ice
[...] Read more.
Operational analyses and re-analyses, provided by ECMWF for the period 1972–2015, were used to investigate the behaviour of the surface heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere, estimated via empirical formulae, over the Ross and Weddell Seas. The presence and thickness of sea ice cover, which strongly affects ocean-atmosphere interactions, was estimated through Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder brightness temperatures. Because of the lack of ice information before 1992, daily averaged ice and snow thickness obtained from the 1992–2012 dataset has been used as a ‘climatological year’ for the 1972–2015 period. The heat loss in the Ross Sea reached its maximum in 2008 (−98 W∙m−2) and its minimum (−58 W∙m−2) in 1980, while in the Weddell Sea, it ranged between −65 W∙m−2 (1999) and −99 W∙m−2 (2015). Results showed that the surface heat fluxes behaviour in the two seas moved from opposite to synchronous during the study period. The wavelet analysis was applied to evaluate if this result might be linked to the signature of global climate variability expressed by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The synchronous behaviour of the surface heat fluxes in the Ross and Weddell seas, observed since 2001, coincides with a change in the energy peak associated to the time scale of the SAM variability, which moved from 32 to 64 months during 1990s. This change generates a common energy peak for the SAM and ENSO with a lagged in phase relationship between the signals, possibly influencing the behaviour of the surface heat fluxes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle Shifting Hardiness Zones: Trends in Annual Minimum Temperature
Climate 2018, 6(1), 15; doi:10.3390/cli6010015
Received: 28 December 2017 / Revised: 5 March 2018 / Accepted: 6 March 2018 / Published: 9 March 2018
PDF Full-text (396 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Work published in 2012 revealed that annual minimum temperatures over the coterminous United States (USA) have increased faster than mean temperatures, causing a pronounced poleward shift in the positions of hardiness zones defined by the expected annual minimum temperature. Here, estimates of increases
[...] Read more.
Work published in 2012 revealed that annual minimum temperatures over the coterminous United States (USA) have increased faster than mean temperatures, causing a pronounced poleward shift in the positions of hardiness zones defined by the expected annual minimum temperature. Here, estimates of increases in annual minimum temperatures are updated and extended to other land areas where station temperature records are available. Annual minimum temperatures have increased faster than mean temperatures in seasonally cold regions globally, but have warmed at about the same rate as mean temperatures in tropical climates. The mean increase in annual minimum temperature across the available weather stations was 2.0 °C between 1970 and 2016 (or almost 0.5 °C per decade), as compared to an increase of 1.2 °C in mean temperature. Recent cold winters in regions such as Eastern North America did not clearly break with this trend and were within the range of variability seen in past decades. Overall, annual minimum temperatures appear to be increasing steadily, though with considerable inter-annual variability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band
Climate 2018, 6(1), 2; doi:10.3390/cli6010002
Received: 2 December 2017 / Revised: 28 December 2017 / Accepted: 3 January 2018 / Published: 5 January 2018
PDF Full-text (4568 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much
[...] Read more.
The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle Relation between Short-Term and Long-Term Variations of Precipitation
Climate 2017, 5(4), 96; doi:10.3390/cli5040096
Received: 13 October 2017 / Revised: 29 November 2017 / Accepted: 8 December 2017 / Published: 14 December 2017
PDF Full-text (10273 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations
[...] Read more.
It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations increases (decreases) if there is a positive (negative) interannual anomaly of precipitation, respectively. In all cases, the amplitude of the short-term variations (periods < 10 days) clearly correlates with the long-term variations (periods > 1.5 years) of precipitation. The correlation coefficient is between 0.7 and 0.95 at periods <8 days. For Kukuihaele (Hawaii), the correlation maximizes at a period of about 14 days. In the other cases, the maximum of the correlation is reached at periods <5 days. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Open AccessArticle Trend of Outbreak of Thermal Illness Patients Based on Temperature 2002–2013 in Korea
Climate 2017, 5(4), 94; doi:10.3390/cli5040094
Received: 16 October 2017 / Revised: 8 December 2017 / Accepted: 11 December 2017 / Published: 13 December 2017
PDF Full-text (528 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
Climate change can have serious impacts on human health, resulting in increased healthcare utilization. Many studies on the relationship between mortality and temperature exist, but few studies focus on heat related outbreaks. Our objective was to verify the relationship between ambient temperature and
[...] Read more.
Climate change can have serious impacts on human health, resulting in increased healthcare utilization. Many studies on the relationship between mortality and temperature exist, but few studies focus on heat related outbreaks. Our objective was to verify the relationship between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses during the summer months. This study analyzed the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database. Patients with an ICD-10 code T67 (Effects of Heat and Light) presenting between May and September were included. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to determine the association between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses including differences by region and patient age. A total of 335,759 patients with heat related illnesses were identified from 2002 to 2013. The number of heat related illnesses increased from 14,994 in 2002 to 29,332 in 2013. For every 1 °C increase in the daily temperature above 29.5 °C, the number of patients with heat related illnesses also increased (RR 1.060; 95% CI, 1.059 to 1.061). In addition, a higher association between temperature and outbreaks of heat related to elderly patients (RR 1.084; 95% CI, 1.081 to 1.086) and rural patients (RR 1.229; 95% CI, 1.208 to 1.251) was identified. The association between the daily maximum temperature and outbreaks of heat related illness is identified. The number of patients with heat related illnesses increased over the years and was especially noted in elderly and rural patients. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Open AccessArticle Investigation of the Spatio-Temporal Variations in Atmosphere Thickness Pattern of Iran and the Middle East with Special Focus on Precipitation in Iran
Climate 2017, 5(4), 82; doi:10.3390/cli5040082
Received: 1 September 2017 / Revised: 23 October 2017 / Accepted: 25 October 2017 / Published: 1 November 2017
PDF Full-text (12471 KB) | HTML Full-text | XML Full-text
Abstract
In this study, Geopotential Height (between 500 and 1000 hPa) and precipitation data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR and IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) for 60 years (1950–2010), respectively. Descriptive features of Atmospheric Thickness (hereafter AT) were calculated and analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall
[...] Read more.
In this study, Geopotential Height (between 500 and 1000 hPa) and precipitation data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR and IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) for 60 years (1950–2010), respectively. Descriptive features of Atmospheric Thickness (hereafter AT) were calculated and analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the maximum AT was recorded in summer because of the dominance of the dynamic, hot subtropical high pressure. Furthermore, upper latitudes experienced more variations in terms of AT. The trend of variations showed that AT has significantly increased in recent years. Further, Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea experienced a more measurable increase in AT. On the other hand, AT had a declining trend over northern parts of Iraq and Iran, but it failed to be statistically considerable. The trend of AT had numerous variations over western parts of Iran, northwestern parts of Iraq, central and eastern parts of Turkey, and a large area of Syria. AT analysis of Iran’s precipitations showed that patterns in the Sea Level Pressure were caused by East Mediterranean, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia low pressures and the high pressures that were located in Europe and Kazakhstan. In addition, in upper-air (500 Hpa), the patterns were influenced by high Mediterranean trough and blocking phenomenon that come from higher latitudes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
Figures

Figure 1

Back to Top