Special Issue "Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate"

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 March 2018

Special Issue Editor

Guest Editor
Dr. Jing-Jia Luo

Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC 3008, Australia
Website | E-Mail
Interests: climate science; climate model development; climate prediction; climate application; decadal variability; climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Decadal (longer than seven years) variability and predictability of climate has been highlighted as a priority area for research over past decades. Special attentions have been paid to the mechanisms of: 1) decadal variability in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans; 2) the importance of ocean processes, ocean-atmosphere interactions, tropical-extratropical interactions, and inter-basin interactions in decadal variability; 3) ENSO-decadal variability interactions; 4) the importance of decadal variability in modulating global climate change; 5) external forcing of decadal variability; 6) decadal variation of ENSO and its predictability; and 7) decadal variability of mode waters, extremes, sea level rise, tropical cyclones, ice extent, glacier, soil moisture, radiative forcing, and so on. In addition, the socio-economic and environmental impacts of decadal variability and the prediction of decadal variability and climate change have also attracted many attentions. In this special issue, we aim to bring together theoretical, observational, and modelling studies and to review and advance our understanding and prediction of both internally-induced and externally-forced decadal variability with a special emphasis on, but not limited to, the interactions between different ocean basins and between ocean, atmosphere, ice, and land.

Dr. Jing-Jia Luo
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • decadal variability
  • climate change
  • inter-basin interactions
  • ocean-atmosphere interactions
  • decadal predictability and prediction
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • Atlantic multi-decadal variability
  • ENSO and decadal variability
  • decadal change of global warming rate

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

Open AccessArticle Regions Subject to Rainfall Oscillation in the 5–10 Year Band
Climate 2018, 6(1), 2; doi:10.3390/cli6010002
Received: 2 December 2017 / Revised: 28 December 2017 / Accepted: 3 January 2018 / Published: 5 January 2018
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Abstract
The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much
[...] Read more.
The decadal oscillation of rainfall in Europe that has been observed since the end of the 20th century is a phenomenon well known to climatologists. Consequences are considerable because the succession of wet or dry years produces floods or, inversely, droughts. Moreover, much research has tried to answer the question about the possible link between the frequency and the intensity of extra-tropical cyclones, which are particularly devastating, and global warming. This work aims at providing an exhaustive description of the rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 year band during one century on a planetary scale. It is shown that the rainfall oscillation results from baroclinic instabilities over the oceans. For that, a joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of sea surface temperature anomalies and rainfall anomalies is performed, which discloses the mechanisms leading to the alternation of high and low atmospheric pressure systems. For a prospective purpose, some milestones are suggested on a possible link with very long-period Rossby waves in the oceans. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
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Open AccessArticle Relation between Short-Term and Long-Term Variations of Precipitation
Climate 2017, 5(4), 96; doi:10.3390/cli5040096
Received: 13 October 2017 / Revised: 29 November 2017 / Accepted: 8 December 2017 / Published: 14 December 2017
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Abstract
It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations
[...] Read more.
It is often stated that short-term precipitation of synoptical weather is related to trends or interannual variations of precipitation. We analyzed nine long-term series of daily precipitation values of the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D V2.0). Generally, the mean amplitude of short-term variations increases (decreases) if there is a positive (negative) interannual anomaly of precipitation, respectively. In all cases, the amplitude of the short-term variations (periods < 10 days) clearly correlates with the long-term variations (periods > 1.5 years) of precipitation. The correlation coefficient is between 0.7 and 0.95 at periods <8 days. For Kukuihaele (Hawaii), the correlation maximizes at a period of about 14 days. In the other cases, the maximum of the correlation is reached at periods <5 days. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
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Open AccessArticle Trend of Outbreak of Thermal Illness Patients Based on Temperature 2002–2013 in Korea
Climate 2017, 5(4), 94; doi:10.3390/cli5040094
Received: 16 October 2017 / Revised: 8 December 2017 / Accepted: 11 December 2017 / Published: 13 December 2017
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Abstract
Climate change can have serious impacts on human health, resulting in increased healthcare utilization. Many studies on the relationship between mortality and temperature exist, but few studies focus on heat related outbreaks. Our objective was to verify the relationship between ambient temperature and
[...] Read more.
Climate change can have serious impacts on human health, resulting in increased healthcare utilization. Many studies on the relationship between mortality and temperature exist, but few studies focus on heat related outbreaks. Our objective was to verify the relationship between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses during the summer months. This study analyzed the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database. Patients with an ICD-10 code T67 (Effects of Heat and Light) presenting between May and September were included. Generalized additive models (GAM) were used to determine the association between ambient temperature and heat related illnesses including differences by region and patient age. A total of 335,759 patients with heat related illnesses were identified from 2002 to 2013. The number of heat related illnesses increased from 14,994 in 2002 to 29,332 in 2013. For every 1 °C increase in the daily temperature above 29.5 °C, the number of patients with heat related illnesses also increased (RR 1.060; 95% CI, 1.059 to 1.061). In addition, a higher association between temperature and outbreaks of heat related to elderly patients (RR 1.084; 95% CI, 1.081 to 1.086) and rural patients (RR 1.229; 95% CI, 1.208 to 1.251) was identified. The association between the daily maximum temperature and outbreaks of heat related illness is identified. The number of patients with heat related illnesses increased over the years and was especially noted in elderly and rural patients. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
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Open AccessArticle Investigation of the Spatio-Temporal Variations in Atmosphere Thickness Pattern of Iran and the Middle East with Special Focus on Precipitation in Iran
Climate 2017, 5(4), 82; doi:10.3390/cli5040082
Received: 1 September 2017 / Revised: 23 October 2017 / Accepted: 25 October 2017 / Published: 1 November 2017
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Abstract
In this study, Geopotential Height (between 500 and 1000 hPa) and precipitation data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR and IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) for 60 years (1950–2010), respectively. Descriptive features of Atmospheric Thickness (hereafter AT) were calculated and analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall
[...] Read more.
In this study, Geopotential Height (between 500 and 1000 hPa) and precipitation data were obtained from the NCEP/NCAR and IRIMO (Iran Meteorological Organization) for 60 years (1950–2010), respectively. Descriptive features of Atmospheric Thickness (hereafter AT) were calculated and analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that the maximum AT was recorded in summer because of the dominance of the dynamic, hot subtropical high pressure. Furthermore, upper latitudes experienced more variations in terms of AT. The trend of variations showed that AT has significantly increased in recent years. Further, Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea experienced a more measurable increase in AT. On the other hand, AT had a declining trend over northern parts of Iraq and Iran, but it failed to be statistically considerable. The trend of AT had numerous variations over western parts of Iran, northwestern parts of Iraq, central and eastern parts of Turkey, and a large area of Syria. AT analysis of Iran’s precipitations showed that patterns in the Sea Level Pressure were caused by East Mediterranean, Sudan, and Saudi Arabia low pressures and the high pressures that were located in Europe and Kazakhstan. In addition, in upper-air (500 Hpa), the patterns were influenced by high Mediterranean trough and blocking phenomenon that come from higher latitudes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Type of Paper: Article
Title:
 Climate variability and the pending catastrophic decline of the former acid rain receiving forests across the United States and Europe
Authors:
 Steven McNulty
Affiliation:
 USDA Forest Service
Abstract: From the 1950’s through the 1980’s spruce (Picea sp.) and fir (Abies sp) forests across the northeastern United States and Europe received to high rates on of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) deposition.  During the 1980’s,  tree mortality accelerated to the point of being termed forest decline.   Concern about forest decline led to the passage of a series of pollution control acts in the United States and Europe that decreased rates of acidic deposition.  Over the following decades, forest decline decreased, and the trees returned to pre-decline rates of mortality and productivity.  However, while forests again appear healthy,  there are indications that long-term N deposition has morphologically changed that forest leading to increased foliage and decreased root mass.  Increases in drought frequency and variability,  and gradual atmospheric warming have coincided with a general decline in forest mortality.  Although no large scale impacts on forest health have been observed in recent (i.e., past 30) years,  we propose that forest mortality in excess those observed during the 1980’s are likely and will occur very rapidly (unlike the slowly developing decline previously observed). This paper examines the evidence to support this hypothesis and proposes management options for reducing forest health risk to climate variability.

Type of Paper: Article
Title:
Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012
Authors:
Antonio de la Casa and Olga Nasello
Affiliation
: Facultad de Ciencias Agropecuarias, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba)
Abstract: Rainfall variability spans over different periods, from short to long time-scales. This study analyzes the temporal variation of different rainfall features in the central region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012, and also assesses the temporal dynamics of the trends by using the Mann-Kendall-Sneyers (MKS) and Tomé-Miranda (TM) procedures. While rainfall indicators behavior in Marcos Juárez reflects the absence of long-term changes, rainfall intensity, frequency and variability presents significant trends in other sites. In a regional assessment however, in only 18 of 42 analyzed cases the long-scale trend reached significance (P < 0.10). Total annual rainfall (PP) has a significant long-term increment in Laboulaye (LB) and Villa Dolores (VD) only, but does not persist at present according to the MKS and TM methods. The decrease in the annual frequency of rainy days (DPP) is more widespread in the region. Thus, the increase in mean annual rainfall intensity (INT) in the central region of Argentina would be particularly associated with the decrease in DPP. However, INT increase only persists in Córdoba (BO) currently, while for LB, Río Cuarto (RC) and VD the trend has stopped growing since the mid-1990s. For its part, under different criteria and levels of significance, the time series have a homogeneous behavior in more than 80% of cases. Those one not homogeneous could be due to the change of tendency detected. Thus, long-term change of the pluvial regime in the central region of Argentina would not only have a local manifestation and restricted to some properties of rainfall during the analyzed period, but it also reveals a particular dynamic composed by an overlap of fluctuations under different time scales. So that, a current trend of a shorter time-scale can be opposite to the trend in a longer time-scale.
Keywords
: Intensity; rainy days; variability; climate change; breaking point

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