Next Article in Journal / Special Issue
Influence of Decadal Climate Variability on Growing Degree Day, Precipitation, and Drought in Crop-Growing Seasons
Previous Article in Journal
Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review
Previous Article in Special Issue
A First Regional-Scale Estimate of Climate-Driven Terrestrial Carbon Export in Boreal Catchments
Article Menu
Issue 2 (June) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Climate 2018, 6(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6020042

Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability

1
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
2
Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
3
Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322, USA
4
Tree Ring Lab, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, UY 10964, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 24 March 2018 / Revised: 4 May 2018 / Accepted: 10 May 2018 / Published: 16 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decadal Variability and Predictability of Climate)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3340 KB, uploaded 16 May 2018]   |  

Abstract

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall ( R A ) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s R A is characterized by a pronounced decadal oscillation signal. We use the decadal mode of R A along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as an external variable, accounts for most of the autoregressive R A , while taking advantage of the predictability from the basin-wide Pacific climate oscillation. Using this model, the decadal prediction of R A can be reasonably achieved with a 10-year-ahead forecasting skill score (SS) about 0.46. We therefore suggest, with this paper, that forecasting R A for Central Vietnam for multiple years ahead is possible using a time-series model. View Full-Text
Keywords: Central Vietnam; time-series model; tree-ring; decadal prediction Central Vietnam; time-series model; tree-ring; decadal prediction
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Sun, Y.; Wang, S. .-Y.; Li, R.; Buckley, B.M.; Gillies, R.; Hansen, K.G. Feasibility of Predicting Vietnam’s Autumn Rainfall Regime Based on the Tree-Ring Record and Decadal Variability. Climate 2018, 6, 42.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Climate EISSN 2225-1154 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top