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Climate, Volume 5, Issue 3 (September 2017)

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Research

Open AccessArticle Effects of the Lake Sobradinho Reservoir (Northeastern Brazil) on the Regional Climate
Climate 2017, 5(3), 50; doi:10.3390/cli5030050
Received: 15 May 2017 / Revised: 8 July 2017 / Accepted: 10 July 2017 / Published: 13 July 2017
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Abstract
This study investigates the effects of Lake Sobradinho, a large reservoir in Northeastern Brazil, on the local near-surface atmospheric and boundary layer conditions. For this purpose, simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM are compared for two different scenarios: (1) with the lake
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This study investigates the effects of Lake Sobradinho, a large reservoir in Northeastern Brazil, on the local near-surface atmospheric and boundary layer conditions. For this purpose, simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM are compared for two different scenarios: (1) with the lake being replaced by the average normal native vegetation cover and (2) with the lake as it exists today, for two different two-month periods reflecting average and very dry conditions, respectively. The performance of the simulation is evaluated against data from surface meteorological stations as well as satellite data in order to ensure the model’s ability to capture atmospheric conditions in the vicinity of Lake Sobradinho. The obtained results demonstrate that the lake affects the near-surface air temperature of the surrounding area as well as its humidity and wind patterns. Specifically, Lake Sobradinho cools down the air during the day and warms it up during the night by up to several C depending on the large-scale meteorological conditions. Moreover, the humidity is significantly increased as a result of the lake’s presence and causes a lake breeze. The observed effects on humidity and air temperature also extend over areas relatively far away from the lake. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Blended Drought Index: Integrated Drought Hazard Assessment in the Cuvelai-Basin
Climate 2017, 5(3), 51; doi:10.3390/cli5030051
Received: 30 May 2017 / Revised: 6 July 2017 / Accepted: 8 July 2017 / Published: 13 July 2017
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Abstract
Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and
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Drought is one of the major threats to societies in Sub-Saharan Africa, as the majority of the population highly depends on rain-fed subsistence agriculture and traditional water supply systems. Hot-spot areas of potential drought impact need to be identified to reduce risk and adapt a growing population to a changing environment. This paper presents the Blended Drought Index (BDI), an integrated tool for estimating the impact of drought as a climate-induced hazard in the semi-arid Cuvelai-Basin of Angola and Namibia. It incorporates meteorological and agricultural drought characteristics that impair the population’s ability to ensure food and water security. The BDI uses a copula function to combine common standardized drought indicators that describe precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Satellite remote sensing products were processed to analyze drought frequency, severity and duration. As the primary result, an integrated drought hazard map was built to spatially depict drought hot-spots. Temporally, the BDI correlates well with millet/sorghum yield (r = 0.51) and local water consumption (r = −0.45) and outperforms conventional indicators. In the light of a drought’s multifaceted impact on society, the BDI is a simple and transferable tool to identify areas highly threatened by drought in an integrated manner. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Analysis of Climate Behavior and Land Use in the City of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 52; doi:10.3390/cli5030052
Received: 26 April 2017 / Revised: 20 June 2017 / Accepted: 11 July 2017 / Published: 14 July 2017
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Abstract
The city of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is located in a tropical zone of the planet, in medium latitude that experiences strong insolation throughout the year. The existence of different geographic factors, and different land uses and covers favor the diversity of existing
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The city of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) is located in a tropical zone of the planet, in medium latitude that experiences strong insolation throughout the year. The existence of different geographic factors, and different land uses and covers favor the diversity of existing microclimates. This study aims to analyze the different land uses and covers during the last 30 years that impact the varying climatic conditions in the city of Rio de Janeiro, especially for the development of the urban heat and fresh islands. To accomplish this research, images were used from the satellites Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 to capture the apparent surface temperatures, and land use and land cover maps. Comparing these three decades (1986, 1997 and 2016), an increase in the temperatures of urban areas is noticeable toward the last year, 2016. The neighborhoods located in the West and North zones showed the highest temperatures. The areas near the Pedra Branca, Tijuca and Mendanha massifs showed lower temperatures. Therefore, it is possible to recognize a relationship between land cover and temperature behavior; the greenest areas tend to register lower temperatures, and the urban areas demonstrate higher temperatures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Identification of Homogeneous Rainfall Regions in the Eastern Watersheds of the State of Paraná, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 53; doi:10.3390/cli5030053
Received: 19 April 2017 / Revised: 3 July 2017 / Accepted: 6 July 2017 / Published: 15 July 2017
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Abstract
The objectives of this study are to use a clustering technique to identify homogeneous rainfall regions in the watersheds of the eastern region of the state of Paraná and to associate the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall with the influences of orography,
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The objectives of this study are to use a clustering technique to identify homogeneous rainfall regions in the watersheds of the eastern region of the state of Paraná and to associate the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall with the influences of orography, the ocean and regional atmospheric dynamics. Rainfall data were obtained from 54 pluviometric stations and from eight meteorological stations, which comprise the historical series from 1976 to 2015. A cluster analysis technique was used with the Euclidean distance for measuring proximity and Ward’s method for hierarchical grouping. The Litorânea watershed exhibited the highest rainfall totals in the study area, and the annual average was 2551 mm for the homogeneous group with the highest rainfall. The Ribeira river watershed exhibited the lowest total rainfall (1488 mm); therefore, it was considered a rain shadow region with a more tropical climate due to the concentration of rainfall in the period from September to March. The Alto Iguaçu watershed was characterized by the smallest spatiotemporal variation in rainfall due to its flatter relief and the influence of the subtropical climate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Hydrologic Alterations Predicted by Seasonally-Consistent Subset Ensembles of General Circulation Models
Climate 2017, 5(3), 44; doi:10.3390/cli5030044
Received: 17 May 2017 / Revised: 16 June 2017 / Accepted: 21 June 2017 / Published: 26 June 2017
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Abstract
Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study
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Future climate forcing data at the temporal and spatial scales needed to drive hydrologic models are not readily available. Simple methods to derive these data from historical data or General Circulation Model (GCM) results may not adequately capture future hydrological variability. This study assessed streamflow response to daily future climate forcing data produced by a new method using subsets of multi-model GCM ensembles for the mid-21st century period in northeast Kansas. Daily timeseries of precipitation and temperature were developed for six future climate scenarios: stationary, uniform 10% changes in precipitation; shifts based on a 15-GCM ensemble-mean; and shifts based on three seasonally-consistent subsets of GCMs representing Spring–Summer combinations that were wetter or drier than the historical period. The analysis of daily streamflow and hydrologic index statistics were conducted. Stationary 10% precipitation shifts generally bounded the monthly mean streamflow projections of the other scenarios, and the 15-GCM ensemble-mean captured non-stationary effects of annual and seasonal hydrological response, but did not identify important intra-annual shifts in drought and flood characteristics. The seasonally-consistent subset ensembles produced a range of distinct monthly streamflow trends, particularly for extreme low-flow and high-flow events. Meaningful water management and planning for the future will require hydrological impact simulations that reflect the range of possible future climates. Use of GCM ensemble-mean climate forcing data without consideration of the range of seasonal patterns among models was demonstrated to remove important seasonal hydrologic patterns that were retained in the subset ensemble-mean approach. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modified Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming)
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Open AccessArticle On the Use of Regression Models to Predict Tea Crop Yield Responses to Climate Change: A Case of Nandi East, Sub-County of Nandi County, Kenya
Climate 2017, 5(3), 54; doi:10.3390/cli5030054
Received: 21 June 2017 / Revised: 4 July 2017 / Accepted: 6 July 2017 / Published: 17 July 2017
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Abstract
Tea is a major cash crop in Kenya. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on tea crops prompts the use of statistical models to measure how the crop responds to climate variables. The statistical model was trained on historical tea yields, and
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Tea is a major cash crop in Kenya. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on tea crops prompts the use of statistical models to measure how the crop responds to climate variables. The statistical model was trained on historical tea yields, and how they related to past data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Nandi East Sub-County. Scatter diagrams for selected months were generated from tea yield and temperature data. A multiple linear model was developed to predict tea yield using climatic variables. A contingency table was used to verify the model. Results from an analysis of trends in rainfall depicted a positive trend and revealed an increased frequency of annual droughts. The study showed that the frequency of extreme rainfall events during September-October-November (SON) season has decreased. Results from an analysis of the trends in temperature revealed that the minimum temperatures are increasing and that the frequency of extreme events has increased. Rising maximum temperatures were observed in March. The study revealed that May, the cold month, is becoming warmer. Correlation analysis indicated that the climatic variables during some months in both the concurrent year and the previous year were positively correlated with the tea yield. However, there was an inverse relationship between maximum temperature and rainfall. Results of model verification revealed that that 70% of model forecasts were correct. The results also showed that at least half of the observed events were correctly forecasted and thus the majority of the forecasts were true. An equation for predicting the yield of tea from the climate variables is presented. Full article
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Open AccessArticle An Ecological Study of the Association between Area-Level Green Space and Adult Mortality in Hong Kong
Climate 2017, 5(3), 55; doi:10.3390/cli5030055
Received: 25 April 2017 / Revised: 7 July 2017 / Accepted: 14 July 2017 / Published: 18 July 2017
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Abstract
There is evidence that access to green spaces have positive effects on health, possibly through beneficial effects on exercise, air quality, urban heat islands, and stress. Few previous studies have examined the associations between green space and mortality, and they have given inconsistent
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There is evidence that access to green spaces have positive effects on health, possibly through beneficial effects on exercise, air quality, urban heat islands, and stress. Few previous studies have examined the associations between green space and mortality, and they have given inconsistent results. This ecological study relates green space to mortality in Hong Kong from 2006 to 2011. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of green space coverage, was measured for 199 small geographic areas in Hong Kong. Negative Binomial Regression Models were fit for mortality outcomes with NDVI, age, gender, population density, and area-level socio-economic variables as predictors, with Generalized Estimating Equations used to control for within-cluster correlation. An interquartile range (0.44 units) higher NDVI was significantly associated with lower cardiovascular (relative risk (RR) = 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80, 0.98) and diabetes (RR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.60, 0.92) mortality, and non-significantly associated with lower chronic respiratory mortality (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.79, 1.02). Associations were stronger for males and low-income area residents. Lung cancer mortality had no significant association with green space. Better provision of urban green space, particularly in low-income areas, appears to have potential to reduce mortality in densely-populated Asian cities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Climate, Air Pollution, and Public Health)
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Open AccessArticle Assessment of Groundwater Resources in the Context of Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of the Klela Basin in Southern Mali
Climate 2017, 5(3), 45; doi:10.3390/cli5030045
Received: 12 June 2017 / Revised: 26 June 2017 / Accepted: 27 June 2017 / Published: 1 July 2017
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Abstract
Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River), is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater
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Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River), is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater resources, which are under pressure caused by increased water demand as well as climate variability and climate change. As a consequence, freshwater availability is being threatened which can have a direct negative impact on irrigation agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate future behavior of groundwater resources in the context of climate change and population growth using socio-economic and population growth scenarios for water demand and the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) data for calculating groundwater recharge using the Thornthwaite model. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) model was applied to balance water availability and demand and to compute changes in groundwater storage up to 2050. The overall results show that groundwater recharge as well as storage is decreasing over time, especially in the 2030s which can lead to severe agricultural droughts in this period. Recharge declined by approximatively 49% and stored groundwater by 24% over the study period. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Impacts and Resilience in the Developing World)
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Open AccessArticle Global Warming and Tea Production—The Bibliometric View on a Newly Emerging Research Topic
Climate 2017, 5(3), 46; doi:10.3390/cli5030046
Received: 7 June 2017 / Revised: 29 June 2017 / Accepted: 1 July 2017 / Published: 4 July 2017
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Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the newly emerging research field of climate change in combination with tea production. We adapted a valid search query to cover the relevant literature as completely as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature. The search resulted in a
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In this study, we analyzed the newly emerging research field of climate change in combination with tea production. We adapted a valid search query to cover the relevant literature as completely as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature. The search resulted in a publication set of 14 key papers dealing with the implications of climate change for tea production as well as 71 papers citing at least one of the 14 key papers. The VOSviewer software was used for revealing the thematic content of the publication set based on the analysis of the keywords. The analysis illustrates the importance of climate change for tea production and mirrors the emerging discussion on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. Questions regarding the historical context of research fields or specific research topics can be answered by using a bibliometric method called “Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy” (RPYS). The standard RPYS, as well as RPYS-CO, which is based on co-citations of a marker paper, were applied and the most important publication in the historical context of climate change in combination with tea production was identified: both RPYS analyses revealed a paper by M.A. Wijeratne working at the Tea Research Institute (TRI) in Sri Lanka as the starting point of the newly emerging research topic. Currently, the research topic is stimulated by research projects and publications of Selena Ahmed at the Montana State University (USA). Full article
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Open AccessFeature PaperArticle Adaptation: An Agricultural Challenge
Climate 2017, 5(3), 56; doi:10.3390/cli5030056
Received: 21 June 2017 / Revised: 19 July 2017 / Accepted: 21 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
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Abstract
Agriculture is quite sensitive to climate change and to date it has been impacted in many ways. In turn, adaptation to lessen the impacts has attracted increasing attention. Here we discuss private and public roles in adaptation, as well as procedures for the
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Agriculture is quite sensitive to climate change and to date it has been impacted in many ways. In turn, adaptation to lessen the impacts has attracted increasing attention. Here we discuss private and public roles in adaptation, as well as procedures for the evaluation of adaptation projects. Additionally, we discuss adaptation realities and limits that constrain the practical ability of adaptation actions to cope with climate effects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture)
Open AccessArticle Variations of Rainfall Rhythm in Alto Pardo Watershed, Brazil: Analysis of Two Specific Years, a Wet and a Dry One, and Their Relation with the River Flow
Climate 2017, 5(3), 47; doi:10.3390/cli5030047
Received: 1 May 2017 / Revised: 26 June 2017 / Accepted: 28 June 2017 / Published: 4 July 2017
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Abstract
This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which
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This research aims to understand the variability and rhythm of rainfall for two specific standard-years, and their relation with the river flow of the Alto Pardo watershed, located in southeastern Brazil, and thus identify atmospheric systems that can cause extreme events, and which may be reflected in heavy rainfall, floods, or drought episodes. Therefore, the research chose to investigate the years 1983 and 1984, rainy and dry standard-years respectively in the study area, where rainfall was described and spatialized through the geostatistical method of kriging at the monthly level and the rhythmic analysis technique was applied in order to identify what weather types are usual and extreme in the area. The results indicate that a high involvement of the frontal system in the year 1983 was responsible for the episodes of greater rainfall and peak water flow, especially in stationary front episodes. The year 1984 presented low rainfall in summer, a meteorological drought during the year, and the predominance of tropical air masses in relation to the frontal systems. The comparison between the two extreme years, a wet and a dry one, made it possible to understand the frequency and the chaining of the atmospheric systems during this period for the Alto Pardo watershed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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Open AccessArticle Adaptation to Climate Change by Rural Ethnic Communities of Northern Thailand
Climate 2017, 5(3), 57; doi:10.3390/cli5030057
Received: 27 May 2017 / Revised: 17 July 2017 / Accepted: 22 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
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Abstract
Northern Thailand has been experiencing the impact of climate change due to its fragile agro-ecosystem, inhabited by a resource-poor population. The study, conducted in a mountainous landscape of Doi Mae Salong area in Northern Thailand, explores the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its
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Northern Thailand has been experiencing the impact of climate change due to its fragile agro-ecosystem, inhabited by a resource-poor population. The study, conducted in a mountainous landscape of Doi Mae Salong area in Northern Thailand, explores the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its impact on farming, and adaptation measures undertaken by the two ethnic communities in the area for coping with climate change impacts. The data were collected through a structured questionnaire survey of ninety farm households using the recall approach for the past twenty years. The findings suggest that the farmers have perceived the change in climate pattern of the study area, and its negative impact on farming. Farm households have been trying to cope with the impacts by adapting to alternate farming options and practices using traditional techniques. The impact was perceived to be higher in the community living at higher elevation compared to those at lower elevation. Although autonomous adaptation is occurring in the area, the vulnerability of farm households to the impact of climate change still exists in terms of the lack of knowledge and financial resources. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Evaluating the Effect of Physics Schemes in WRF Simulations of Summer Rainfall in North West Iran
Climate 2017, 5(3), 48; doi:10.3390/cli5030048
Received: 3 May 2017 / Revised: 27 June 2017 / Accepted: 2 July 2017 / Published: 6 July 2017
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Abstract
The numerical weather forecast model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has a range of applications because it offers multiple physical options, enabling the users to optimizing WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Summer rainfall cannot be predicted well in North West
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The numerical weather forecast model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) has a range of applications because it offers multiple physical options, enabling the users to optimizing WRF for specific scales, geographical locations and applications. Summer rainfall cannot be predicted well in North West of Iran (NWI). Most of them are convective. Sometimes rainfall is heavy, so that it causes flash flood. In this research, some configurations of WRF were tested with four summer rainfall events in NWI to find the best configuration. Five cumulus, four planetary boundary layers (PBL) and two microphysical schemes were combined. Twenty-six different configurations (models) were implemented at two resolutions of 5 and 15 km for duration of 48 h. Four events, with over 20 mm convective daily rainfall total, were selected at NWI during summer season between 2010 and 2015. These events were tested by developing 26 unique models. Results were verified using several methods. The aim was to find the best results during the first 24 h. Although no single configuration can be introduced for all times, thresholds, and atmospheric system to provide reliable and accurate forecast, the best configuration for WRF can be identified. Kain-Fritsch (new Eta), Betts-Miller-Janjic, Modified Kain-Fritsch, Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch and newer Tiedtke cumulus schemes and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic, Shin-Hong ‘scale-aware’, Medium Range Forecast (MRF) and Yonsei University (YSU) Planetary Boundary Layer schemes and Kessler, WRF Single Moment 3 class simple ice (WSM3) microphysics schemes were selected. The result show that Cumulus schemes are the most sensitive and Microphysics schemes are the less sensitive. The comparison of 15 km and 5 km resolution simulations do not show obvious advantages in downscaling the results. Configuration with newer Tiedtke cumulus, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL, WSM3 and Kessler microphysics schemes give the best results for the 5 and 15 km resolutions. The output image of models and statistical methods verification indexes show that WRF could not accurately simulate convective rainfall in the NWI in summer. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Climate and Production: The Case of the Administrative Region of Grande Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
Climate 2017, 5(3), 49; doi:10.3390/cli5030049
Received: 28 April 2017 / Revised: 1 July 2017 / Accepted: 4 July 2017 / Published: 8 July 2017
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Abstract
In the academic literature we can find a wide range of studies in climatology which show that current land management methods are contributing to an increase in environmental impact on the planet. These studies in climatology not only analyze atmospheric data, but also
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In the academic literature we can find a wide range of studies in climatology which show that current land management methods are contributing to an increase in environmental impact on the planet. These studies in climatology not only analyze atmospheric data, but also require a wide knowledge of the researcher’s regional interests for territorial planning. This article aims to explain the characteristics and tendencies used in the territory of the administrative region of Grande Dourados, in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, and the environmental implications of this process of land exploration. Then, we analyze several climatological surveys carried out by the physical geography laboratory of the Federal University of Grande Dourados and the socio-economic and environmental research group of Mato Grosso do Sul. The results demonstrate how important it is to develop strong measures to valorize environmental actions in the area. Climatic parameters can also exacerbate more extreme regional climate patterns, an exacerbation that has a strong spatio-temporal aspect, and also has a direct relation to the various climatological scales. This type of research is pioneering work in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul and in Brazil, and it will contribute to further academic work which will discuss the important relations between land production and climate impact in the near future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Studies and Perspectives of Climatology in Brazil)
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