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Climate 2017, 5(3), 67; doi:10.3390/cli5030067

Influence of Parameter Sensitivity and Uncertainty on Projected Runoff in the Upper Niger Basin under a Changing Climate

1
Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Abuja, Abuja 900211, Nigeria
2
Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, Bonn 53115, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Daniele Bocchiola
Received: 2 June 2017 / Revised: 21 August 2017 / Accepted: 23 August 2017 / Published: 27 August 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modified Hydrological Cycle under Global Warming)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3189 KB, uploaded 29 August 2017]   |  

Abstract

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from eight Global Climate Models (GCM). The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J, and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During the model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets were generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997–2003) and the validation (2004–2010) period, respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment, while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimated low flow, respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended, along with other methods for sustainable river basin management. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; hydrology; rainfall-runoff models; model uncertainty climate change; hydrology; rainfall-runoff models; model uncertainty
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Oyerinde, G.T.; Diekkrüger, B. Influence of Parameter Sensitivity and Uncertainty on Projected Runoff in the Upper Niger Basin under a Changing Climate. Climate 2017, 5, 67.

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