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Economies, Volume 1, Issue 3 (December 2013), Pages 19-64

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Research

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Open AccessArticle Monetary Transfers in the U.S.: How Efficient Are Tax Rebates?
Economies 2013, 1(3), 26-48; doi:10.3390/economies1030026
Received: 17 August 2013 / Revised: 22 September 2013 / Accepted: 19 October 2013 / Published: 1 November 2013
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Abstract
Recent debate on the effectiveness of tax rebates has concentrated on the degree to which they can affect economic activity, which depends on the methodology, the state of the economy, and the underlying assumptions. A better approach to assess the effectiveness of [...] Read more.
Recent debate on the effectiveness of tax rebates has concentrated on the degree to which they can affect economic activity, which depends on the methodology, the state of the economy, and the underlying assumptions. A better approach to assess the effectiveness of these monetary transfers is by comparing this method to alternative policies—like the traditional monetary injections through the financial intermediaries. A limited participation model calibrated to the U.S. economy is used to show that the higher the proportion of the monetary injection channeled through the consumers—instead of banks—leads to a less vigorous recovery of output but softens the detrimental effect on the utility of the representative household from the inherent inflationary pressure. This result is robust to the relative importance of the injection (utilization of resources) and alternative utility functions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession)
Open AccessArticle The Changing Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Economies 2013, 1(3), 49-64; doi:10.3390/economies1030049
Received: 15 August 2013 / Revised: 29 October 2013 / Accepted: 30 October 2013 / Published: 13 November 2013
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Abstract
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many countries are hoping that massive increases in their money supplies will revive their economies. Evaluating the effectiveness of this strategy using traditional statistical methods would require the construction of an extremely complex economic [...] Read more.
In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many countries are hoping that massive increases in their money supplies will revive their economies. Evaluating the effectiveness of this strategy using traditional statistical methods would require the construction of an extremely complex economic model of the world that showed how each country’s situation affected all other countries. No matter how complex that model was, it would always be subject to the criticism that it had omitted important variables. Omitting important variables from traditional statistical methods ruins all estimates and statistics. This paper uses a relatively new statistical method that solves the omitted variables problem. This technique produces a separate slope estimate for each observation which makes it possible to see how the estimated relationship has changed over time due to omitted variables. I find that the effectiveness of monetary policy has fallen between the first quarter of 2003 and the fourth quarter of 2012 by 14%, 36%, 38%, 32%, 29% and 69% for Japan, the UK, the USA, the Euro area, Brazil, and the Russian Federation respectively. I hypothesize that monetary policy is suffering from diminishing returns because it cannot address the fundamental problem with the world’s economy today; that problem is a global glut of savings that is either sitting idle or funding speculative bubbles. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession)

Other

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Open AccessShort Note Effects of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on the Stock Market in Poland
Economies 2013, 1(3), 19-25; doi:10.3390/economies1030019
Received: 16 July 2013 / Revised: 23 September 2013 / Accepted: 3 October 2013 / Published: 11 October 2013
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Abstract
The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index [...] Read more.
The focus of this paper is to examine potential impacts of fiscal and monetary policies on stock market performance in Poland. Applying the GARCH model and based on a sample during 1999.Q2 to 2012.Q4, this paper finds that Poland’s stock market index is not affected by the ratio of government deficits or debt to GDP and is negatively influenced by the money market rate. The stock index and the ratio of M3 to GDP show a quadratic relationship with a critical value of 46.03%, suggesting that they have a positive relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is less than 46.03% and a negative relationship if the M3/GDP ratio is greater than 46.03%. Furthermore, Poland’s stock index is positively associated with industrial production and stock market performance in Germany and the U.S. and negatively affected by the nominal effective exchange rate and the inflation rate. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Great Recession)

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