Spatio-Temporal Modeling and Tropical Disease

A special issue of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease (ISSN 2414-6366). This special issue belongs to the section "Neglected and Emerging Tropical Diseases".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 October 2021) | Viewed by 6612

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Interests: spatio-temporal modeling; tropical disease; health informatics; geographic information systems; infectious disease epidemiology
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Guest Editor
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
Interests: spatial epidemiology; evidence-based public health; occupational epidemiology; infectious epidemiology

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

With rapid urbanization and intensive international traffic, infectious diseases are spreading more quickly and widely than before. Immediate detection of aberrations in disease patterns and precise public health intervention can help mitigate large epidemics and reduce the disease burden. How to identify hotspots and quantify risks in a timely manner and geographically by spatio-temporal modeling based on disease surveillance data and epidemiological investigation data is a critical and challenging question. The dynamics of hosts, agents and environments interact and evolve in time and space. Traditional spatio-temporal statistical models, Bayesian models, and machine-learning or deep-learning algorithms are applied to predict disease occurrence or explain the risk factors involved in diseases’ spatio-temporal distribution. Different levels of spatio-temporal resolution of data nowadays also increase the complexity of model computation. 

This Special Issue entitled “Spatio-Temporal Modeling and Tropical Disease” welcomes different approaches to spatio-temporal modelling of tropical diseases. Success stories on how to apply models for disease control or prevention are especially welcome. We also encourage data scientists and statisticians to share information on their innovative models or tools which can be applied to first-line public health usage.

Dr. Ta-Chien Chan
Prof. Dr. Mathuros Tipayamongkholgul
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2700 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • clusters
  • hotspots
  • spatio-temporal analysis
  • GIS
  • spatial epidemiology
  • surveillance

Published Papers (2 papers)

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18 pages, 3684 KiB  
Article
Persistence of Schistosomiasis-Related Morbidity in Northeast Brazil: An Integrated Spatio-Temporal Analysis
by Bárbara Morgana da Silva, Anderson Fuentes Ferreira, José Alexandre Menezes da Silva, Rebeca Gomes de Amorim, Ana Lúcia Coutinho Domingues, Marta Cristhiany Cunha Pinheiro, Fernando Schemelzer de Moraes Bezerra, Jorg Heukelbach and Alberto Novaes Ramos, Jr.
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2021, 6(4), 193; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed6040193 - 28 Oct 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3453
Abstract
Objective: To analyze the temporal trend and spatial patterns of schistosomiasis-related morbidity in Northeast Brazil, 2001–2017. Methods: Ecological study, of time series and spatial analysis, based on case notifications and hospital admission data, as provided by the Ministry of Health. Results: Of a [...] Read more.
Objective: To analyze the temporal trend and spatial patterns of schistosomiasis-related morbidity in Northeast Brazil, 2001–2017. Methods: Ecological study, of time series and spatial analysis, based on case notifications and hospital admission data, as provided by the Ministry of Health. Results: Of a total of 15,574,392 parasitological stool examinations, 941,961 (6.0%) were positive, mainly on the coastline of Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe states. There was a reduction from 7.4% (2002) to 3.9% (2017) of positive samples and in the temporal trend of the detection rate (APC—11.6*; Confidence Interval 95%—13.9 to −9.1). There was a total of 5879 hospital admissions, with 40.4% in Pernambuco state. The hospitalization rate reduced from 0.82 (2001) to 0.02 (2017) per 100,000 inhabitants. Conclusion: Despite the reduction in case detection and hospitalizations, the persistence of focal areas of the disease in coastal areas is recognized. This reduction may indicate a possible positive impact of control on epidemiological patterns, but also operational issues related to access to healthcare and the development of surveillance and control actions in the Unified Health System. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatio-Temporal Modeling and Tropical Disease)
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8 pages, 1460 KiB  
Case Report
Rapidly Containing the First Indigenous Outbreak of Chikungunya in Taiwan—Lessons Learned
by Ta-Chien Chan, Yu-Fen Hsu, Shao-Chun Huang and Ran-Chou Chen
Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 2021, 6(3), 165; https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed6030165 - 10 Sep 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1947
Abstract
The first indigenous outbreak of chikungunya in Taiwan occurred in New Taipei City, northern Taiwan, from August to October 2019. This study identified important containment strategies for controlling the outbreak. The outbreak investigation and ovitrap data were collected from the Department of Health, [...] Read more.
The first indigenous outbreak of chikungunya in Taiwan occurred in New Taipei City, northern Taiwan, from August to October 2019. This study identified important containment strategies for controlling the outbreak. The outbreak investigation and ovitrap data were collected from the Department of Health, New Taipei City Government. A geographic information system (GIS) was applied for spatial analysis, and descriptive statistics were used to compute the demographic features and medical visits of confirmed cases. There were 19 residents infected during the outbreak. The source of this outbreak was a mountain trail with abundant Aedes albopictus. The atypical symptoms and lack of a rapid test led to multiple clinical visits by the patients (mean: 2.79; standard deviation: 1.65). The clinical symptoms of chikungunya are very similar to those of dengue fever. We noted that only eight patients were polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive in their first blood collection, and an average of 3.13 days between illness onset and PCR-positive results. The improved laboratory panel test, targeted and rapid insecticide spraying at the households and their communities, strict closure of the mountain trail, and ovitrap surveillance for evaluating intervention were important approaches to rapidly contain the outbreak. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatio-Temporal Modeling and Tropical Disease)
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