The Implications of Nonlinear, Complex System Behaviour for Managing Changing Climate Risk

Dear Colleagues,

There are two schools of thought about how the climate changes under increasing greenhouse gases. One school considers that the forced component and internal variability are independent, with externally-forced atmospheric warming being gradual, surrounded by the uncertainty of (nonlinear) climate variability.

The other school of thought considers that added warming enhances climate variability, which, over decadal time scales, is fundamentally nonlinear. These nonlinearities are associated with step-like changes in steady state climate regimes. Under increased forcing, the nonlinear behaviour associated with climate variability would be enhanced, leading to more frequent regime changes. These would likely manifest on regional scales, even though, under sustained forcing, global warming is expected to follow a complex trend.

With the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in its early stages, there is a very limited literature on managing the risk of nonlinear climate change on decadal timescales, yet nonlinear change poses a much greater risk than gradual change. If climate change on decision-making timescales proves to be fundamentally nonlinear, there will be a substantial gap in the assessment. This special issue invites submissions on all aspects of the implications of nonlinear climate change for risk management, from theory through to practice.

Prof. Dr. Roger Jones
Guest Editor

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