Economies, Volume 12, Issue 2 (February 2024) – 25 articles

Since the reform and opening-up, China has developed into the world’s number one manufacturing country. Meanwhile, China’s environmental protection efforts continue to strengthen. So, will changes in the intensity of environmental regulatory policies have an impact on the technological development level and international competitiveness of China’s high-tech manufacturing industries? In response to this issue, we have reviewed relevant research in the field of environmental regulation and export technology complexity, and then selected appropriate indicators to quantify the environmental regulation and export technology complexity of high-tech manufacturing industries in different regions of China. Furthermore, the entropy method was used to calculate the intensity of environmental regulations in different regions of China. In the subsequent empirical analysis, based on relevant indicator data from 30 provinces in China, excluding Tibet, from 2006 to 2021, we quantitatively analyzed the impact of China’s environmental regulations on the complex export technology of high-tech manufacturing industries. The degree of influence and the robustness of the benchmark regression results was proved through endogeneity testing and robustness testing. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from 2006 to 2021, China’s environmental regulation intensity and the technological complexity of high-tech industry exports have shown an upward trend. (2) The empirical analysis results show that the increase in intensity has a significant “U-shaped” impact on the technological complexity of exports of high-tech manufacturing industries. (3) The “U-shaped” impact of environmental regulation on the technological complexity of exports of high-tech manufacturing industries has regional differences. However, the high-tech manufacturing industry does not show obvious industry differences. (4) Environmental regulations will affect the level of export technology complexity of the high-tech manufacturing industry through foreign direct investment, human capital, and innovative R D investment, which cause indirect effects. Based on those conclusions, this paper has suggested corresponding policy measures and future research directions. Full article

This study shows that demand for money is a function not only of interest rate, real exchange rate, and personal consumption but also of fiscal variables like deficit, debt, and foreign-financed debt. It is stable over the short and long run. This study also covers the investigation of policy invariance of money demand, an important issue ignored so far in the existing literature on the demand for money in the United States. It was found that the behavior of agents in the money market changes as the real exchange rate, consumption, and interest rate change. Namely, agents in the money market are forward-looking, and their expectations are formed rationally. This also means that even though the parameters of money demand are stable, according to the stability test results, they can be unstable, as agents adapt their behavior based on any change in the exchange rate, consumption, and/or interest rate. In other words, the contemporaneous real exchange and interest rate variables are not superexogenous in demand for M1, and the contemporaneous consumption is not superexogenous in demand for M2. Full article

Mechanisms for sectoral change in the economy are being used to move towards a circular economy. Trade in recycled raw materials could contribute to circular economy development and is treated as the main circular indicator used to monitor progress toward a circular economy. However, the research area surrounding the transition to a circular economy lacks adequate tools, as until now, the circular economy has been investigated from an evolutionary and ecological perspective. In the article, the authors conduct a study identifying important variables for trade in recycled raw materials as the main indicator of CE development. The authors propose a two-step methodology for researching the links between main trade in recyclables and circular economy indicators. The authors found correlations between trade in recyclables and private investments in circular economy sectors. The authors used panel data analysis, compiled a regression matrix, and formed a dynamic regression model. The statistical tests showed that the formed regression model has no significant autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The framework can be applied in practice to serve policymakers and the academic community interested in analyzing the move toward a circular economy and its main circular indicators. Full article

We use house prices (HP) and house price indices (HPI) as a proxy to income distribution. Specifically, we analyze distribution of sale prices in the 1970–2010 window of over 116,000 single-family homes in Hamilton County, Ohio, including Cincinnati metro area of about 2.2 million people. We also analyze distributions of HPI, published by Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for nearly 18,000 US ZIP codes that cover a period of over 40 years starting in 1980’s. If HP can be viewed as a first derivative of income, HPI can be viewed as its second derivative. We use generalized beta (GB) family of functions to fit distributions of HP and HPI since GB naturally arises from the models of economic exchange described by stochastic differential equations. Our main finding is that HP and multi-year HPI exhibit a negative Dragon King (nDK) behavior, wherein power-law distribution tail gives way to an abrupt decay to a finite upper limit value, which is similar to our recent findings for realized volatility of S&P500 index in the US stock market. This type of tail behavior is best fitted by a modified GB (mGB) distribution. Tails of single-year HPI appear to show more consistency with power-law behavior, which is better described by a GB Prime (GB2) distribution. We supplement full distribution fits by mGB and GB2 with direct linear fits (LF) of the tails. Our numerical procedure relies on evaluation of confidence intervals (CI) of the fits, as well as of p-values that give the likelihood that data come from the fitted distributions. Full article

Charcoal is a dominant energy source in urban areas of Uganda, and increases in retail prices in the past have led to social unrest. This paper assesses the relationship between charcoal and fuel prices to determine whether fuel prices influence the retail price of charcoal. We specify a transportation cost model for charcoal supply and derive the reduced-form equilibrium price function. We estimate an error-correction model for the equilibrium price with monthly data from July 2010 to January 2021 to determine whether there are long-term and/or short-term relationships between the retail and supply prices of charcoal and the prices of diesel and other fuel types. As the price data are integrated of orders zero and one, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test is used. The results show that there is a long-term relationship (cointegration) between the retail price of charcoal and the supply price of charcoal and the price of kerosene, which is a substitute energy source for the end users. The prices of firewood and diesel are not statistically significant in the model. The long-term equation includes a positive trend, indicating that the retail price of charcoal is increasing more over time than implied by the supply price of charcoal and the price of kerosene. The increasing demand from a growing urban population and the reduced supply from deforestation are trends that will increase the equilibrium price of charcoal, as observed. Full article

This study quantitatively investigates the collaborative framework and competitive landscape of Thailand’s evolving music industry, driven by technological progress and changing consumer preferences. By examining data obtained from Thailand’s Department of Intellectual Property, specifically 138,868 songs, it explores the complex network of relationships among music creators, artists, and various rights-holders, including those associated with recording, music, melodies, and lyrics. Utilizing social network analysis, this research uncovers a power law distribution in these networks, reflecting a scale-free market configuration. This characteristic is marked by a few dominant players exercising considerable market influence, contrasted with numerous less-interconnected participants. This investigation notes regular patterns of collaboration between artists and different rights-holders. Furthermore, the network of music creators displays small-world properties, with short collaborative distances fostering efficient information exchange and creative synergy. Crucially, this study identifies key influential players instrumental in directing the industry’s major trends, highlighting their role in market concentration. These significant findings will provide critical evidence for informing future policy development aimed at improving efficiency and equity in the digital content industries. Full article

The United Nations has promoted and supported the UNCTAD Creative Economy Programme since 2004 to help countries around the world understand how to promote economic development through creativity in industries. This research article aims to determine whether the creative economy will be the major engine to accelerate Thailand’s economic development in the coming decade or not, and what the major creative economy sectors are that must be prioritized or initiated and focused on. The data implemented in this research cover 2011–2018, which consist of creative economy sector income, the IO table, and the SAM table. The methodology utilized in this research was the ML model, the GREY model for predicting the growth rate of income from the major creative economy sectors contribute to Thailand’s economy between 2019–2025, and the CGE model. The study’s empirical findings show that the significant sectoral creative economy consists of fashion, advertising, Thai food, and cultural tourism, which need to be given more stimulus. Furthermore, the economies of Chiang Mai, and Thailand as a whole, would eventually be high-income economies if creative economy sectors were to be promoted and continuously supported by efficient policies. the economic growth of Thailand and Chiang Mai would eventually become high income whenever these economies allow creative economy sectors to be promoted or supported by efficient policies continuously. Full article

The paper examines a paradigmatic example of post-conflict economic development of Vukovar, Croatia. It represents a pertinent case study for localities encountering analogous challenges, most notably urban areas in Ukraine in the near future. The war that broke out in 1991 brought significant human casualties, population displacement, and extensive destruction of residential, social, and economic infrastructure. The completion of the peaceful reintegration of Vukovar into Croatia’s legal system in 1998 marked the beginning of the socio-economic revitalization process. The research scrutinizes the primary impediments and prospects for Vukovar’s economic growth, probing why substantial investments in reconstructing housing, transport, communal infrastructure, and fiscal incentives for businesses have not paralleled its economic performance. It concentrates on the local business climate and influential factors as potential explanations for this discrepancy. The topic was designed as a case study and was covered by document analysis, survey method, and semi-structured interviews. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study collates perspectives from entrepreneurs and business support institutions. The results confirmed that reconstruction of housing and social infrastructure is necessary, but more conditions are needed for successful post-conflict economic development, and that the business climate in lagging local units highly depends on state- and locally designed business-support measures. Full article

This research compares the global debt trends in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on economies that frame the North and South divide. The research centers on debt ratios, which serve as indicators of countries’ ability to finance recovery and development projects. The study period runs from 2015 to 2022 and follows the IMF’s country classification, which divides the world into advanced economies (AE) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDE). The research employs panel data regressions to assess three key debt ratios—external debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), external debt to exports, and public debt to GDP—against various pandemic-related indicators and control variables. The analysis provides three major contributions. Firstly, an examination of external and public debt burdens is conducted, showing that escalated external and public debt burdens in EMDE contrast with increasing public debt in AE, primarily due to fiscal stimulus. Secondly, it is argued that the ongoing pandemic has intensified the widening economic gap between the North (AE) and the south (EMDE). Thirdly, a review is presented of both orthodox and heterodox policies identified in existing literature that are considered capable of mitigating external vulnerabilities in EMDE. Findings highlight the critical need for multifaceted measures to address debt vulnerability and promote sustainable economic recovery in a post-pandemic world. Full article

Analysis of the relationships among global stock markets is crucial for international investors, regulators, and policymakers, particularly during a crisis. Complex network theory was applied to analyze the relationship between global stock markets during the Russia–Ukraine war. Daily data from 55 stock markets from 6 August 2021 to 23 September 2023 were retrieved and used to investigate the changes in global stock market networks. The sample period was divided into 22 subsamples, using a 100-day rolling window rolled forward a trading month, and then long-range correlations based on distance matrices were calculated. These distance matrices were utilized to construct stock market networks. Moreover, minimum spanning trees (MSTs) were extracted from these financial networks for analytical purposes. Based on topological and structural analysis, we identified important/central nodes, distinct communities, vulnerable/stable nodes, and changes thereof with the escalation of war. The empirical findings reveal that the Russia–Ukraine war impacted the global stock markets’ network. However, its intensity varied with changes in the region and the passage of time due to the level of stock market integration and stage of war escalation, respectively. Stock markets of France, Germany, Canada, and Austria remained the most centrally connected within communities; surprisingly, the USA’s stock market is not on this list. Full article

Energy poverty represents a critical challenge in Latin America today, given the social disparities the region faces. In this context, this study focuses on exploring the effects of remittances on the energy poverty of 13 Latin American countries during the period 2000–2020. Panel estimations with fixed and random effects, along with the generalized method of moments, are employed to address potential endogeneity issues. The results suggest that remittances play a significant role in mitigating energy poverty in the Latin American region, particularly in rural areas. Furthermore, it is observed that economic growth and financial development act as mediators, allowing remittances to indirectly contribute to mitigating energy poverty. Although inequality was examined as a potential mediator, the findings suggest that it does not play a significant role in this context. It is concluded that remittances are an appropriate mechanism to improve the quality of life of the population, and their impact is strengthened in a more robust economic environment. Full article

This study investigates the impact of South Africa’s current account balance on its economic growth from Q1 2015 to Q4 2022 using Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) technique. This study incorporates qualitative variables like COVID-19 to understand its effect on the South African current account and economic growth rate. Generally, the results show that the South African current account deficit impacted economic growth in both the long and short run. COVID-19 also affected the current account significantly in both the long and short run, thus causing more deterioration on the South African current account and subsequently affecting the economic growth rate negatively. This study recommends more competitive export promotion and import substitution by investing in and developing domestic productivity. This study also recommends an acceleration of the tabled COVID-19 recovery initiatives through an alliance between the government and private sector. Full article

Colombia experienced a substantial increase in annual migration flow from Venezuela from 2013 to 2019, accumulating 1.7 million migrants by the end of 2019. According to migration data, 2016 was a breaking point in migration growth, with an increase of 137.57% compared with 2015 and at which time the influx of migrant workers began to be massive, rapid, and involuntary. In this regard, the research paper investigates, using a difference-in-differences model, the impacts on the labor market across different definitions of the informal workforce, testing the hypothesis that short-term labor migration increased (1) the number of employed individuals in companies with a workforce of fewer than five people, (2) the number of employed individuals not contributing to the social security system, and (3) the relative participation of the informal workforce in total employment from 2015 to 2018. The main results indicate an expansion in the labor market’s informal segment, increasing the number of non-returned native workers in the informal workforce without significant increases in the participation of informality in total employment. The results remain robust across various samples in models adjusted for departmental-, municipal-, and individual-level data. Following the economic theory, the research findings seem to follow a transmission mechanism in which migrant workers reduce labor costs and increase production in informal markets, providing better conditions to increase informal jobs for native workers. Several national and international stakeholders implementing income-generation alternatives in the border departments focusing on migrant employment services could find the research findings helpful in at least two aspects: (1) fighting cultural stereotypes upon which basis native workers tend to see migration as a threat to their current job holdings requires evidence that shows migrant workers contribute to economic growth and employment; (2) promoting better public policies to take advantage of initial conditions that favor labor integration of migrant workers such as cultural and language similarities among natives and migrants works better when there is evidence of the migration’s positive impacts. Full article

This comprehensive study explored the efficiency landscape of the Jordanian banking industry from 2006 to 2021, utilizing a dual-pronged approach. First, we assessed the efficiency scores of 15 commercial banks, comprising 13 conventional and 2 Islamic institutions, through data envelopment analysis (DEA). Secondly, we investigated the determinants influencing relative efficiency using the Tobit regression model. Our dataset, spanning 240 observations over 16 years, provides a nuanced examination of industry dynamics. DEA, specifically focusing on variable return to scale (VRS), unveils efficiency scores by accounting for scale inefficiencies. The research contributes insights into the operational efficacy of Jordanian banks and provides a robust methodology for understanding efficiency dynamics in the broader financial landscape. The results reveal significant relationships between return on assets, return on equity, GDP growth, and efficiency. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that Islamic banks demonstrate higher efficiency compared to conventional banks. Additionally, non-significant associations were observed with credit risk, bank size, and the ratio of loan loss provision over net income. The findings hold implications for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers aiming to bolster the resilience and competitiveness of Jordan’s banking sector. Full article

This study investigates the impact of various economic sectors on household income in Thailand. It is conducted in light of the substantial “digital wallet” scheme initiated by the Thai government, with the goal of providing empirical evidence and suggesting alternative policies for regional development informed by sectoral and spatial insights. The research aims to deepen the understanding of how different economic sectors affect household income, filling a gap in the current understanding of the relationship between sectoral productivity and income. Utilising spatial lag models (SLM), the study analyses data spanning from 2005 to 2021, testing the effects of 19 economic sectors comprising the Gross Provincial Product (GPP) of Thailand’s 76 provinces on the average household income. The findings indicate direct associations between agriculture, real estate, professional services, support services, and leisure sectors and household income, alongside pronounced spatial autoregression. This implies that income levels in one province can substantially influence those in neighbouring provinces. This research extends the understanding of economic influences at the regional level and highlights the importance of considering spatial factors in economic policymaking. Full article

The purpose of this study is to systematically analyze the impact of Industry 4.0 technologies on workforce employability and skills in the South Asian region. The study investigates the driving success factors, challenges, and needed skills by analyzing 48 peer-reviewed articles. The authors searched keywords on the Web of Science database for articles published between 2013 and 2022. The review was conducted using the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA 2020) and pareto principles. The analysis identifies nine critical success factors, such as artificial intelligence, digital skills, and big data analytics, that contribute to Industry 4.0’s productivity and efficiency. It also identifies six types of challenges, such as training and development, financial constraints, and regulatory issues that must be addressed to grab maximum potential. In addition, the research categorizes five different skills, including the technical, digital, and social skills that are essential for the evolving labor market. The proposed “Industry 4.0 SEI Framework” provides stakeholders with a comprehensive view of the dynamics of Industry 4.0, thereby facilitating policy and industry strategies. Full article

Since their origins, rural development programs have considered the county level as the axis on which to implement their development strategies. Taking Tajo-Salor County (Extremadura, Spain) as a reference, this research analyzes the assessment that some of the agents directly involved in the implementation of these programs make of the suitability of the configuration of their territorial scope, as well as the achievement of their objectives. For it, the case study methodology is used, in which fieldwork is carried out where the main source of information will be interviews with promoters of tourism projects. The results show that Tajo-Salor County can be considered as a paradigmatic example of an “artificial” configuration of the territory, showing that, among those interviewed, there is no feeling of county. This has consequences on the assessment that local actors make of the implementation of the development program: those areas that do not feel part of the county have a much more negative assessment of the results obtained than the rest. This is a lesson that this case study offers; the political and technical managers of these programs should bear in mind in the future definition of the territories that apply this type of development strategy. Full article

The human resources economic implications of nursing burnout amongst nurses working in retirement homes have become a critical concern within the healthcare industry. As the backbone of care provision in these settings, it is crucial to understand the consequences of burnout on the workforce’s well-being and organisational sustainability. This study aims to investigate burnout among nurses working in retirement homes in Slovenia. The reasons for burnout vary across countries and regions, so gathering data specific to this population is essential. Through surveys conducted among 253 nurses and medical technicians, factor analysis revealed three factors for burnout: emotional exhaustion, reduced personal fulfilment, and impersonality. This research aims to pave the way for reducing workplace stress by creating new opportunities for better working conditions. To achieve these goals, executive management in retirement homes should gain proficiency in the four elements of the quality management cycle: planning, execution, evaluation, and continuous improvement. Furthermore, a comparative analysis was conducted to collate the empirical findings with those from Croatia. Full article

Economic integration and globalization are expected to promote economic growth and convergence. This article offers a comparative analysis of the pace of development in terms of GDP per capita in 79 economies from 1970 to 2019. Usually, economic convergence literature aims to establish whether catching-up processes have been successful. This article verifies the existence of growth path similarities to identify clusters of countries that grow at a similar pace and react in a similar way to crises, and compares their dynamics in time. According to the results, coherently with globalization pressures, clusters have become fewer and larger. However, growth path divergences persist and suggest a cluster-based convergence. Integration processes, such as the European Union, have not influenced this trend. The extent to which these clusters are composed of structurally similar economies has been investigated and some consistencies have emerged between the composition of clusters and the classifications provided by the varieties of capitalism theory. Full article

This paper aims to examine the impact of natural disasters on banking stability across different levels of economic development. Utilizing bank-level data from 1242 banks in 72 countries, combined with natural disaster data from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, we contribute to the literature in three ways. Firstly, we directly assess the influence of natural disasters on banking stability. Secondly, we focus on bank-level data instead of country-level data. Thirdly, we expand on existing research by using different thresholds for the total number of people affected to population ratio, surpassing the previously suggested threshold of 0.5%. Our panel regression analysis with banks and year-fixed effects reveals that natural disasters significantly affect bank stability, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. These effects are robust across alternative measures and estimations, leading to higher non-performing loans, lower return on assets, and decreased capital and return on equity ratios, indicating a negative impact on bank performance. Full article

Fiscal policy stands as a crucial pillar of economic development through its economic financing function. The regulatory effects of fiscality have been shown to reduce the ripple effects of uncertainties on economic growth within the EU. Unlike the average European economy, the Romanian economy has exhibited particularities concerning economic growth (ranking highly in economic growth among European nations in absolute terms), partly due to a more assertive fiscal policy applied to a consumption-based economy affected by hyperinflation (especially in the last five calendar years). The research issue stems from the premise of the lack of predictability in Romanian fiscal policy and its implications for the business environment. Our aim is to develop an econometric model of the fiscal effects of VAT on the business performance of the construction sector in Romania for the period 2010–2021. The methods employed involve empirical analysis and the development of consolidated industry-level databases followed by econometric modeling using the multiple linear regression method. The results of the research demonstrate that financial independence and solvency promote excessive taxation in emerging markets and developing countries, such as Romania, being correlated with the macroeconomic evolution of the respective state. Additionally, the results indicate that tax pressure can constitute a barrier to the sustainable development of firms, with direct repercussions for consumers. Attractiveness to investors is also affected, remaining a priority for companies. The study’s findings will enable the identification of the main impediments and opportunities brought about by VAT taxation on branch-level performance, proving useful for construction sector managers and fiscal policy makers in fostering sustainable industry development and establishing a sustainable fiscal regime to safeguard investors. Full article

Sustainable Development Goal 13 echoes the fact that all countries must make urgent and stringent efforts to mitigate against and adapt to climate change and its associated impacts. Climate financing is one of the key mechanisms used to enable countries to remain resilient to the hastening effects of climate change. In this paper, we empirically assess the effect of institutional governance indicators on the amount of climate finance received by 21 nations for which progress towards the internationally agreed-upon target of reducing global warming to 1.5 °C is tracked. We use the fixed-effects ordinary least squares (OLS) and the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimators, drawing on the Climate Action Tracker panel data from 2002 to 2020. Empirical results reveal that perceived political stability significantly enhanced climate finance inflows among countries that strongly increased their NDC targets, while perceived deterioration in corruption control negatively impacted the amount of climate finance received by the same group of countries. Therefore, governments should reduce corruption tendencies while striving to avoid practices and alliances that lead to any form of violence, including terrorism and civil war. Low developing countries (LDCs) in particular need to improve the standard of public services provided to the populace while maintaining a respectable level of autonomy from political influences. Above all, as countries work towards strengthening institutional governance, there is an urgent need for developed economies to assist developing economies in overcoming debt stress since the likelihood of future resilience and prosperity is being undermined by the debt crisis, with developing countries spending almost five times as much annually on repayment of debt as they allocate to climate adaptation. Full article

This study challenges the traditional reliance on GDP as the sole indicator of the success of the EU’s cohesion policy, aligning with the evolving academic discourse that calls for a broader spectrum of metrics incorporating social factors. The research aims to assess the impact of cohesion on economic performance and social progress at the regional level in Central and Eastern European countries, using regression analysis on panel data. Inspired by the call to move beyond GDP-focused assessments, this research re-evaluates cohesion policy within an expanded framework that prioritizes economic and social dimensions. Specifically, it addresses the escalating concerns of income disparity and poverty in Central and Eastern European nations. Utilizing panel data regression models, this study scrutinizes data from 2007 to 2018, covering two recent programming periods, to offer a comprehensive, multifaceted analysis of the impact of cohesion policy. It underscores the policy’s dual role in spurring economic growth and fostering social progress, particularly in mitigating income inequality and reducing poverty. The findings reveal that cohesion policies positively affect both economic performance and social progress, with notable impacts on narrowing the income gap and alleviating poverty in these regions. However, the economic benefits for poverty reduction materialize over a prolonged period, reflecting the gradual nature of policy impact and the time needed for investments to materialize. The study emphasizes the need for a long-term strategic vision in implementing cohesion policies. This includes enhanced data collection, a deeper focus on the social ramifications of policies, streamlined policy processes, capacity building, institutional strengthening, and prioritizing equitable opportunities to bridge income gaps effectively. This comprehensive approach aims to maximize the dual benefits of cohesion policies, promoting balanced economic and social progress across Central and Eastern Europe. Full article

The main goal of this contribution is to assess the development of the economic condition of the Slovak Republic in the context of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation regarding the development of and changes in the economic condition of Slovakia is compared with that in selected EU countries, considering the effects of previous global crises, with a focus on the impacts on small and medium-sized enterprises. The economies of European countries are mentioned to illustrate the ideas of the presented paper, with an emphasis on the economic dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent impact on the Slovak Republic. This research is conducted through basic analytical tools and an analysis of the development of macroeconomic indicators, and by addressing the issue through data from a globally available database. The results in this paper serve as proposals and recommendations for the mitigation of negative economic impacts. Full article

The global financial crisis (2008–2009) represents a notable example of a generally unpredicted crisis in economic history. Nevertheless, it presented features comparable to almost any previous (monetarily related) crisis episode. For instance, it was characterized by a “vicious cycle” made by over-issued money and/or over-granted loans nourishing private and public indebtedness and—eventually—affecting asset prices with stable consumer price indexes. While the post-COVID-19 inflation presents different characteristics because of being a crisis “exogenous” to the economic system, the present Communication claims that future crises (if endogenous to the economic system) are likely to follow usual patterns. The approach used to analyse the transmission channels contributing to economic and financial crises is theoretical. Nevertheless, the present Communication still contains statistical evidence in support of the predictability of such crises as soon as their usual dynamics is understood. The statistical analysis carried out is rather descriptive than causal in nature. Finally, this Communication reminds that “typical” economic and financial crises in advanced economies behave along some consolidated patterns. At their origins, there are mostly over-issued money and/or over-granted loans by central and/or commercial banks financing private and public debt. This phenomenon exacerbates risks in the economy and—while it incentivises money issuers and credit granters in good times to over-issue money and over-grant credits to earn extra-profits—it over-exposes economic agents to the risk of (even greater) economic losses in negative times. As soon as the bubble to be defined as over-proportionally grown prices of specific assets due to over-issued money and over-granted credits pops and funds are rapidly divested, prices collapse and drive the economy into a severe crisis. Full article