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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4(1), 10; doi:10.3390/jmse4010010

Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

1
RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Ave., Ste. 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
2
Pardee RAND Graduate School, 1776 Main St., Santa Monica, CA 90401, USA
3
RAND Corporation, 1776 Main St., Santa Monica, CA 90401, USA
These authors contributed equally to this work.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Rick Luettich
Received: 12 July 2015 / Revised: 22 January 2016 / Accepted: 28 January 2016 / Published: 15 February 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Hazards Related to Storm Surge)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [6196 KB, uploaded 15 February 2016]   |  

Abstract

Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require each storm to be run under a range of uncertain scenarios. Evaluating different flood risk mitigation measures, such as levees and floodwalls, in these future scenarios can further increase the computational cost. This study uses the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) to examine tradeoffs between the accuracy of estimated flood depth exceedances and the number and type of storms used to produce the estimates. Inclusion of lower-intensity, higher-frequency storms significantly reduces bias relative to storm suites with a similar number of storms but only containing high-intensity, lower-frequency storms, even when estimating exceedances at very low-frequency return periods. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood risk; joint probability methods; storm selection; computational efficiency flood risk; joint probability methods; storm selection; computational efficiency
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Fischbach, J.R.; Johnson, D.R.; Kuhn, K. Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 10.

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