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Water 2014, 6(2), 345-366; doi:10.3390/w6020345

Hydrological Flood Simulation Using a Design Hyetograph Created from Extreme Weather Data of a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model

1
National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), Sindian District, New Taipei 231, Taiwan
2
Institute for Advanced Study, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 8910395, Japan
3
Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 11 November 2013 / Revised: 24 January 2014 / Accepted: 27 January 2014 / Published: 5 February 2014
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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Abstract

To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data sets were projected with a general circulation model with high spatial and temporal resolution and used with a flood model to simulate the higher discharge peaks for the top 10 events of each term in a local watershed. The conventional-like ranking method, in which only a dimensionless shape is considered for the creation of a design hyetograph for a temporal distribution of rainfall, likely results in overestimates of discharge peaks because, even with a lower peak of rainfall intensity and a smaller amount of cumulative rainfall, the distribution shape is the only the factor for the design hyetograph. However, the modified ranking method, which considers amounts of cumulative rainfalls, provides a discharge peak from the design hyetograph less affected by a smaller cumulative rainfall depth for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of global climate change indicate that future discharge peaks will increase by up to three times of those of Present-term peaks, which may result in difficult flood control for the downstream river reaches.
Keywords: flood; design hyetograph; Tsengwen Reservoir watershed; global climate change flood; design hyetograph; Tsengwen Reservoir watershed; global climate change
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Kimura, N.; Tai, A.; Chiang, S.; Wei, H.-P.; Su, Y.-F.; Cheng, C.-T.; Kitoh, A. Hydrological Flood Simulation Using a Design Hyetograph Created from Extreme Weather Data of a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Water 2014, 6, 345-366.

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