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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(1), 20; doi:10.3390/ijerph15010020

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model

1
College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University; Chongqing 400067, China
2
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Electronic Commerce and Supply Chain System, Chongqing 400067, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 20 November 2017 / Revised: 19 December 2017 / Accepted: 20 December 2017 / Published: 23 December 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Decision Models in Green Growth and Sustainable Development)
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Abstract

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China’s population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of “r” by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system. View Full-Text
Keywords: grey theory; fractional order grey model; particle swarm optimization; the Yangtze River basin; discharge amount of waste-sewage water; simulation and prediction grey theory; fractional order grey model; particle swarm optimization; the Yangtze River basin; discharge amount of waste-sewage water; simulation and prediction
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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LI, S.; Meng, W.; Xie, Y. Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 20.

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