Special Issue "Net Gains from Depleting Fossil Energy and Mineral Sources"

Guest Editor
Prof. Dr. Charles A.S. Hall
Faculty of Environmental & Forest Biology, College of Environmental Science & Forestry, State University of New York, 354 Illick Hall, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, New York 13210, USA
Website: http://www.esf.edu/EFB/hall/
E-Mail:
Phone: +1 315 470 6870
Fax: +1 315 470 6934
Interests: systems ecology; computer simulation models; integrative geographical modeling of environments and economies

Guest Editor
Dr. Doug Hansen
Hansen Financial Management 12717 Monterey Cypress Way San Diego, CA 92130, USA
E-Mail:

Dear Colleagues,

The energy and material demands of societies continue to grow, along with considerable empirical evidence suggesting that many economies are becoming less efficient. Thus, present rates of extraction and consumption of natural resources, and general growth will remain or increase. These trends will change when the energetic costs to procure materials can no longer be covered. Several materials have the potential to become limiting factors to society within the short to medium term and would affect strategies towards sustainability.

The ongoing depletion of cheap fossil fuel affects the availability of crude oil for synthetic products as well as for its energy content. The ongoing depletion of several elements will affect industrial processes including the production of alternative energy sources to compensate the dwindling fossil energy sources. Other elements in decline are essential in food production and in addition are being competed for by the rapidly increasing biofuel production. The depletion of high quality sources of various elements could be compensated for by accessing lesser quality sources, however it requires an elevated input of energy which is already in shortage.

This Special Issue aims to look at sustainability through the analysis of net gains from extraction of fossil fuels and critical elements. How much energy is needed to extract and deliver a unit of energy from a fossil source? How much energy does it take to extract rare earth elements from declining sources and produce alternative energy devices? How costly are the externalities resulting from the artificial dissipation of extracted elements?

Dr. Werner T. Flueck
Guest Editor

Submission

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 500 CHF (Swiss Francs). English correction and/or formatting fees of 250 CHF (Swiss Francs) will be charged in certain cases for those articles accepted for publication that require extensive additional formatting and/or English corrections.

Type of Paper: Review
Title: The Consequences of Production-Rate Limitations for the new Production of Rare Metals on the Future Growth of the Age of Technology
Author: Jack Lifton
Affiliation: Technology Metals Research, LLC, 31126 Country Bluff, Farmington Hills, MI 48331, USA; E-Mail: JackLifton@aol.com
Abstract: New production of all metals reached an historical high in 2008, at 1.46 billion metric tons, and notwithstanding the global recession that record was broken in 2009 and is expected to be broken again in each of the succeeding years through 2012. However all of this growth is due and will continue to be due to the steady increase in the production of new steel (iron) by the People's Republic of China. This is masking the fact that the continued growth of the new production of all metals other than steel (iron) may not be sustainable. I will argue that the growth in new production of the major non-ferrous common metals may in many cases already be non-sustainable and that, in fact, production levels set in 2008 may be maximal in light of the known and available ore grades, technologies for recovery of metals from them, and energy requirements presently needed for such recoveries. For the rare technology metals, those that I define as the ones produced at and below the level at which lithium was produced in 2008 (27,400 metric tons) the situation may already be critical. With the exception of lithium itself and of the rare earth metals all of the rare technology metals are only produced as byproducts of the production of the more common "base" metals, aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead. The peak production of those common metals means also the peak production of their byproducts. Recycling and new developments in processing technologies to increase the utility of lower grade ores will help stave off a general crisis in the supply of rare technology metals in the near term, but the rapid depletion of the high grade resources of metals by profligate use and failure to conserve or recover surely will limit the sustainability of the growth of our technological civilization long before it can cover even a third of the present human race. This does not bode well for the future as it will create a culture of those who have and those who do not have a technological life-style. I believe that if we do not immediately act to conserve natural resources, recycle rare technology metals everywhere possible, and slow down the growth of the spread of technology to match the limitations put upon such growth by the limitations in the rate of production our recovery technologies put upon our natural resources the expansion of the age of technology will end and civilization will take a step backwards.
Keywords: rare earth metals; lithium; copper; zinc; lead; selenium;

Type of Paper: Review
Title: The Future of Phosphorus: A Review of a Globally Critical Resource
Authors: Dana Cordell ^1,2 and Stuart White ²
Affiliations: ¹ Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW, Sydney 2007, Australia; E-Mails: Dana.Cordell@uts.edu.au; Stuart.White@uts.edu.au
² TEMA V, Linkiaoping University, Linkiaoping, Sweden
Abstract: This paper first reviews latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from phosphate rock. The 2008 price spike triggered increased concerns regarding the timeline of depletion of finite phosphate rock reserves. While estimates range from 30 years to 300 years and are shrouded by lack of public available data and substantial uncertainty, there is general consensus that the quality of remaining reserves are decreasing and costs will increase. This paper then asks what would it take to achieve global phosphorus security? What would a ‘hard-landing’ response look like from Africa to Australia, and how could preferred ‘soft-landing’ responses be achieved?
Keywords: global phosphorus scarcity; depletion; peak phosphorus; global food security; phosphate rock; phosphorus security

Type of Paper: Article
Title: Relating Financial and Energy Return on Investment
Authors: Carey W. King ¹ and Charles A. S. Hall ²
Affiliations: ¹ Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C1100, Austin, TX 78712, USA; E-Mail: careyking@mail.utexas.edu
² Faculty of Environmental & Forest Biology, College of Environmental Science & Forestry, State University of New York, 354 Illick Hall, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, New York 13210, USA
Abstract: For many reasons, including environmental impacts and fossil energy peaking and depletion, it is very important to have sound methods for the evaluation of energy technologies and the profitability of the businesses that employ them.  In this paper we derive relations among the biophysical characteristic of an energy business or technology, the energy return on energy investment (EROI), the price of energy, and the profit of an energy business.  The relations show that EROI and the price of energy are inherently inversely related such that as EROI decreases for depleting fossil fuel production, fossil energy prices increase dramatically.  Using energy and financial data for the oil and gas as well as coal production sectors in 1997 and 2002, we demonstrate that the equations sufficiently describe the fundamental trends between profit, price, and EROI.  In 2002, an EROI of oil near 20 to one relates to the oil price of 23-26 $/BBL.  This work sets the stage for proper EROI and price comparisons of individual fossil and renewable energy businesses as well as the electricity sector as a whole.  Additionally, it presents a framework for incorporating EROI into larger economic systems models.