Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(4), 168-182; doi:10.3390/ijfs1040168
Article

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

1 Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZX, UK 2 Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 October 2013; in revised form: 15 November 2013 / Accepted: 28 November 2013 / Published: 4 December 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sports Finance)
PDF Full-text Download PDF Full-Text [219 KB, uploaded 4 December 2013 16:01 CET]
Abstract: We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank probabilities of home wins across 10 bookmakers, when there are positive expected returns, would have generated positive returns in each of the seasons from 2006–07 to 2011–12 for a variety of different betting strategies. These returns could have been enhanced by employing the best odds from a greater number of bookmakers. However, the fact that pure arbitrage bets have existed for years and appear to last for several hours or days suggest they are in practice not exploitable to a magnitude that poses any threat to bookmakers.
Keywords: inefficiency; football betting; fixed odds; Fink Tank

Article Statistics

Load and display the download statistics.

Citations to this Article

Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Buraimo, B.; Peel, D.; Simmons, R. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 168-182.

AMA Style

Buraimo B, Peel D, Simmons R. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2013; 1(4):168-182.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Buraimo, Babatunde; Peel, David; Simmons, Rob. 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions." Int. J. Financial Stud. 1, no. 4: 168-182.

Int. J. Financial Stud. EISSN 2227-7072 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert