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Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(4), 168-182; doi:10.3390/ijfs1040168

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

Management School, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZX, UK
Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 12 October 2013 / Revised: 15 November 2013 / Accepted: 28 November 2013 / Published: 4 December 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sports Finance)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [219 KB, uploaded 4 December 2013]


We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank probabilities of home wins across 10 bookmakers, when there are positive expected returns, would have generated positive returns in each of the seasons from 2006–07 to 2011–12 for a variety of different betting strategies. These returns could have been enhanced by employing the best odds from a greater number of bookmakers. However, the fact that pure arbitrage bets have existed for years and appear to last for several hours or days suggest they are in practice not exploitable to a magnitude that poses any threat to bookmakers. View Full-Text
Keywords: inefficiency; football betting; fixed odds; Fink Tank inefficiency; football betting; fixed odds; Fink Tank
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0).

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Buraimo, B.; Peel, D.; Simmons, R. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 168-182.

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