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Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(4), 168-182; doi:10.3390/ijfs1040168
Article

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

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Received: 12 October 2013; in revised form: 15 November 2013 / Accepted: 28 November 2013 / Published: 4 December 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sports Finance)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [219 KB, uploaded 4 December 2013]
Abstract: We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank probabilities of home wins across 10 bookmakers, when there are positive expected returns, would have generated positive returns in each of the seasons from 2006–07 to 2011–12 for a variety of different betting strategies. These returns could have been enhanced by employing the best odds from a greater number of bookmakers. However, the fact that pure arbitrage bets have existed for years and appear to last for several hours or days suggest they are in practice not exploitable to a magnitude that poses any threat to bookmakers.
Keywords: inefficiency; football betting; fixed odds; Fink Tank inefficiency; football betting; fixed odds; Fink Tank
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Buraimo, B.; Peel, D.; Simmons, R. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 168-182.

AMA Style

Buraimo B, Peel D, Simmons R. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions. International Journal of Financial Studies. 2013; 1(4):168-182.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Buraimo, Babatunde; Peel, David; Simmons, Rob. 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions." Int. J. Financial Stud. 1, no. 4: 168-182.


Int. J. Financial Stud. EISSN 2227-7072 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert