Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Sites around the UK
2.1. Liverpool Bay
2.2. Pembroke
2.3. West Gabbard
3. Methodology
3.1. Model Approach
- A global climate simulation by an atmosphere-ocean-coupled global climate model (AOGCM) under an emission scenario.
- A global atmospheric climate simulation with higher spatial resolution by an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) using sea surface temperature (SST) data from the AOGCM as a boundary condition at the bottom of AGCM.
- A global wave simulation by a wave model forced with the sea surface winds from the AGCM.
3.2. Bias Correction
3.3. Calculation of Storm Events
4. Results
5. Results and Discussion
5.1. Pembroke
5.2. West Gabbard
6. Summary and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Month | PWP (m) | FWP C0 (m) | FWP C1 (m) | FWP C2 (m) | FWP C3 (m) | Ensemble Mean Difference (m) | Ensemble Maximum Difference (m) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | |||
January | 6.58 | 1.53 | −0.01 | 1.71 | 0.76 | 2.12 | 0.26 | 1.43 | 0.79 | 2.07 | 0.45 | 0.80 |
February | 5.63 | 1.80 | −0.02 | 1.24 | 0.97 | 1.58 | 0.36 | 1.42 | 0.33 | 1.51 | 0.41 | 0.99 |
March | 5.60 | 1.64 | 0.61 | 1.77 | 0.21 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 1.19 | −0.12 | 1.48 | 0.18 | 0.73 |
April | 4.96 | 1.57 | −0.04 | 1.49 | −0.12 | 1.17 | −0.03 | 1.11 | −0.52 | 1.01 | −0.17 | 0.49 |
May | 4.27 | 1.47 | −0.25 | 1.40 | −0.08 | 0.90 | −0.50 | 1.41 | 0.50 | 1.89 | −0.08 | 1.00 |
June | 3.49 | 1.38 | 0.19 | 1.78 | 0.09 | 1.87 | 0.12 | 1.64 | −0.13 | 1.62 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
July | 3.27 | 1.06 | −0.03 | 1.68 | 0.19 | 1.82 | 0.10 | 1.75 | −0.27 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
August | 3.27 | 1.55 | 0.03 | 1.55 | 0.17 | 1.67 | 0.29 | 1.86 | 0.30 | 1.65 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
September | 4.23 | 1.21 | −0.15 | 1.41 | −0.17 | 1.13 | −0.13 | 1.54 | −0.30 | 1.35 | −0.19 | 0.17 |
October | 4.90 | 1.44 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.15 | 0.94 | 0.26 | 1.65 | 0.16 | 0.26 |
November | 5.88 | 1.76 | 0.08 | 1.70 | −0.03 | 1.94 | 0.28 | 1.18 | 0.80 | 1.69 | 0.28 | 0.83 |
December | 6.46 | 1.23 | −0.10 | 1.14 | 0.68 | 1.86 | 0.75 | 1.72 | –0.31 | 1.70 | 0.25 | 1.06 |
Month | PWP (m) | FWP C0 (m) | FWP C1 (m) | FWP C2 (m) | FWP C3 (m) | Ensemble Mean Difference (m) | Ensemble Maximum Difference (m) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | ΔAvg | SD | |||
January | 3.84 | 1.15 | 0.23 | 0.86 | 0.07 | 1.15 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 1.11 | 0.27 | 0.58 |
February | 3.69 | 1.51 | −0.02 | 1.34 | 0.33 | 1.32 | 0.32 | 1.08 | −0.20 | 1.29 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
March | 3.37 | 1.25 | 0.04 | 0.95 | 0.14 | 0.95 | 0.04 | 1.08 | 0.06 | 1.61 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
April | 3.16 | 1.32 | 0.11 | 1.36 | 0.10 | 1.48 | 0.07 | 1.64 | −0.12 | 1.59 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
May | 3.07 | 1.53 | 0.04 | 1.61 | 0.05 | 1.58 | 0.14 | 1.65 | −0.05 | 1.55 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
June | 3.09 | 1.51 | −0.25 | 1.46 | −0.33 | 1.36 | −0.11 | 1.40 | −0.31 | 1.37 | −0.25 | 0.22 |
July | 2.82 | 1.32 | −0.06 | 1.04 | 0.16 | 0.99 | 0.01 | 1.30 | −0.11 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
August | 2.69 | 1.19 | 0.31 | 1.16 | 0.38 | 1.35 | 0.11 | 1.05 | 0.04 | 1.30 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
September | 3.28 | 1.67 | −0.17 | 1.67 | −0.19 | 1.55 | −0.24 | 1.56 | −0.01 | 1.86 | −0.15 | 0.23 |
October | 3.10 | 1.14 | 0.06 | 1.36 | 0.03 | 1.31 | 0.28 | 1.34 | 0.15 | 1.45 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
November | 3.39 | 1.37 | 0.32 | 1.60 | 0.21 | 1.61 | 0.24 | 0.89 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 0.25 | 0.11 |
December | 4.03 | 0.89 | −0.38 | 0.75 | 0.27 | 1.48 | −0.24 | 1.31 | −0.30 | 1.23 | −0.16 | 0.66 |
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Bennett, W.G.; Karunarathna, H.; Mori, N.; Reeve, D.E. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040078
Bennett WG, Karunarathna H, Mori N, Reeve DE. Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2016; 4(4):78. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040078
Chicago/Turabian StyleBennett, William G., Harshinie Karunarathna, Nobuhito Mori, and Dominic E. Reeve. 2016. "Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 4, no. 4: 78. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040078