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Vaccines 2017, 5(2), 12; doi:10.3390/vaccines5020012

Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination

1
Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa, 585 King Edward Ave, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
2
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus, London W2 1PG, UK and Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia
3
Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Alfredo Torres
Received: 9 November 2016 / Revised: 6 February 2017 / Accepted: 15 May 2017 / Published: 18 May 2017
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Abstract

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is an acute respiratory infection that infects millions of children and infants worldwide. Recent research has shown promise for the development of a vaccine, with a range of vaccine types now in clinical trials or preclinical development. We extend an existing mathematical model with seasonal transmission to include vaccination. We model vaccination both as a continuous process, applying the vaccine during pregnancy, and as a discrete one, using impulsive differential equations, applying pulse vaccination. We develop conditions for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and show that this equilibrium can be destabilised under certain extreme conditions, even with 100% coverage using an (unrealistic) vaccine. Using impulsive differential equations and introducing a new quantity, the impulsive reproduction number, we showed that eradication could be acheived with 75% coverage, while 50% coverage resulted in low-level oscillations. A vaccine that targets RSV infection has the potential to significantly reduce the overall prevalence of the disease, but appropriate coverage is critical. View Full-Text
Keywords: Respiratory Syncytial Virus; vaccination; mathematical model; impulsive reproduction number; infection spikes Respiratory Syncytial Virus; vaccination; mathematical model; impulsive reproduction number; infection spikes
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Smith, R.J.; Hogan, A.B.; Mercer, G.N. Unexpected Infection Spikes in a Model of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccination. Vaccines 2017, 5, 12.

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