Unusual Childhood Waking as a Possible Precursor of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake

Simple Summary: The paper investigates whether young children may waken before earthquakes through a cause other than foreshocks. It concludes there is statistical evidence for this, but the mechanism best supported is anxiety produced by Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) electromagnetic waves.

Abstract: Nearly 1,100 young students living in Japan at a range of distances up to 500 km from the 1995 Kobe M7 earthquake were interviewed. A statistically significant abnormal rate of early wakening before the earthquake was found, having exponential decrease with distance and a half value approaching 100 km, but decreasing much slower than from a point source such as an epicentre; instead originating from an extended area of more than 100 km in diameter. Because an improbably high amount of variance is explained, this effect is unlikely to be simply psychological and must reflect another mechanism—perhaps Ultra-Low Frequency (ULF) electromagnetic waves creating anxiety—but probably not ²²²Rn excess. Other work reviewed suggests these conclusions may be valid for animals in general, not just children, but would be very difficult to apply for practical earthquake prediction.