Next Article in Journal
The Spatiotemporal Distribution of Two Bacterial Indexes in a Small Tibetan Plateau Watershed
Next Article in Special Issue
Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin and the Associations with Climate Patterns
Previous Article in Journal
Heterotrophic Nitrification-Aerobic Denitrification Performance of Strain Y-12 under Low Temperature and High Concentration of Inorganic Nitrogen Conditions
Article Menu
Issue 11 (November) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Water 2017, 9(11), 836; https://doi.org/10.3390/w9110836

Effective Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions in Taiwan by Means of a SOM-Based Cluster Analysis Technique

1
Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei City 10093, Taiwan
2
Central Weather Bureau, Taipei City 10048, Taiwan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 August 2017 / Revised: 6 October 2017 / Accepted: 25 October 2017 / Published: 30 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate on Hydrological Extremes)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [5313 KB, uploaded 31 October 2017]   |  

Abstract

Typhoon rainfall is one of the most important water resources in Taiwan. However, heavy rainfall during typhoons often leads to serious disasters. Therefore, accurate typhoon rainfall forecasts are always desired for water resources managers and disaster warning systems. In this study, the quantitative rainfall forecasts from an ensemble numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan are used. Furthermore, a novel strategy, which is based on the use of a self-organizing map (SOM) based cluster analysis technique, is proposed to integrate these ensemble forecasts. By means of the SOM-based cluster analysis technique, ensemble forecasts that have similar features are clustered. That is helpful for users to effectively combine these ensemble forecasts for providing better typhoon rainfall forecasts. To clearly demonstrate the advantage of the proposed strategy, actual application is conducted during five typhoon events. The results indicate that the ensemble rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models are well categorized by the SOM-based cluster analysis technique. Moreover, the integrated typhoon rainfall forecasts resulting from the proposed strategy are more accurate when compared to those from the conventional method (i.e., the ensemble mean of all forecasts). In conclusion, the proposed strategy provides improved forecasts of typhoon rainfall. The improved quantitative rainfall forecasts are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems as well as water resources management systems during typhoons. View Full-Text
Keywords: typhoon rainfall forecasting; ensemble numerical weather predictions; SOM-based cluster analysis technique typhoon rainfall forecasting; ensemble numerical weather predictions; SOM-based cluster analysis technique
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Wu, M.-C.; Hong, J.-S.; Hsiao, L.-F.; Hsu, L.-H.; Wang, C.-J. Effective Use of Ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions in Taiwan by Means of a SOM-Based Cluster Analysis Technique. Water 2017, 9, 836.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Water EISSN 2073-4441 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top