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Water 2016, 8(7), 289; doi:10.3390/w8070289

Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data

Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Edif. IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal
General Directorate for Territorial Development (DGT), Rua da Artilharia Um, 107, 1099-052 Lisboa, Portugal
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Joan M. Brehm and Brian W. Eisenhauer
Received: 5 April 2016 / Revised: 7 June 2016 / Accepted: 7 July 2016 / Published: 13 July 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Watershed Protection and Management)
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The land use and land cover (LUC) of the Zêzere watershed (Portugal) have undergone major changes in recent decades, with the increase of artificial surfaces. This trend is quantified in some studies, but the probability of the increase of this type of LUC, nor the places where the next transitions or land use/cover changes (LUCC) for artificial surfaces will have high probability of occurrence has not yet been assessed. This research presents an evaluation of these two aspects, by means of bivariate statistical models (fuzzy logic and information value) and environmental data. The artificialization probability by sectors within the same watershed is also evaluated, to further understand which areas will require greater attention, taking into account the environmental conditions favorable to the occurrence of this process and bearing in mind the conditions under which this process took place in the past. The results obtained using these models were assessed independently, through curves of success, noting that the modeling through the fuzzy gamma presents slightly better efficiency in determining the probability of artificialization surfaces in the study area. The area with the highest probability of artificialization is mostly located in the SW of this watershed, but high probabilities are also present in the upstream sector, being those areas that require further preventive measures once they have influence on the water quality and quantity in the main reservoirs of this watershed. View Full-Text
Keywords: LUC; LUCC; artificial surfaces; fuzzy logic; information value; spatial analysis; water quality LUC; LUCC; artificial surfaces; fuzzy logic; information value; spatial analysis; water quality

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Meneses, B.M.; Reis, E.; Vale, M.J.; Reis, R. Modeling the Probability of Surface Artificialization in Zêzere Watershed (Portugal) Using Environmental Data. Water 2016, 8, 289.

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