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Water 2016, 8(7), 271; doi:10.3390/w8070271

A Multi-Model Approach Using Statistical Index and Information Criteria to Evaluate the Adequacy of the Model Geometry in a Fissured Carbonate Aquifer (Italy)

1
School of Science and Technology, University of Camerino, Geology Division, Via Gentile III da Varano, 62032 Camerino (MC), Italy
2
DISTeVA, Dpartment of Earth, Life and Environmental Sciences, Via Cà le Suore, 2/4, 61029 Urbino (PU), Italy
3
Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering, Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, University of Zagreb, Pierottijeva 6, Zagreb 10000, Croatia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Received: 30 March 2016 / Revised: 21 June 2016 / Accepted: 23 June 2016 / Published: 28 June 2016
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Abstract

A conceptual model related to a mountain aquifer that is characterized by a lack of data of hydrogeological parameters and boundary conditions, which were based on a single available observational dataset used for calibration, was studied using numerical models. For the first time, a preliminary spatial-temporal analysis has been applied to the study area in order to evaluate the real extension of the aquifer studied. The analysis was based on four models that were characterized by an increasing degree of complexity using a minimum of two zones and a maximum of five zones, which consequently increased the number of adjustable parameters from a minimum of 10 to a maximum of 22, calibrated using the parameter estimation code PEST. Statistical index and information criteria were calculated for each model, which showed comparable results; the information criteria indicated that the model with the low number of adjustable parameters was the optimal model. A comparison of the simulated and observed spring hydrographs showed a good shape correspondence but a general overestimation of the discharge, which indicated a good fit with the rainfall time series and a probably incorrect extension of the aquifer structure: the recharge contributes more than half of the total outflow at the springs but is not able to completely feed the springs. View Full-Text
Keywords: multi-modeling; uncertainty analysis; sensitivity analysis; carbonate rocks; central Apennine; Italy multi-modeling; uncertainty analysis; sensitivity analysis; carbonate rocks; central Apennine; Italy
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Giacopetti, M.; Crestaz, E.; Materazzi, M.; Pambianchi, G.; Posavec, K. A Multi-Model Approach Using Statistical Index and Information Criteria to Evaluate the Adequacy of the Model Geometry in a Fissured Carbonate Aquifer (Italy). Water 2016, 8, 271.

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