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Water 2016, 8(12), 559; doi:10.3390/w8120559

Impact Assessment of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Flooding Behavior in the Upper Ciliwung River, Jakarta, Indonesia

1
Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, United Nations University, Tokyo 150-8925, Japan
2
Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-Ku, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Athanasios Loukas
Received: 5 September 2016 / Revised: 1 November 2016 / Accepted: 21 November 2016 / Published: 29 November 2016
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Abstract

The hydrological conditions upstream of the Ciliwung watershed are changing due to climate and land-use changes. Any changes in this area may increase the flood frequencies which may have countless consequences downstream of the watershed where the Jakarta city is located. We simulated the effects of land-use and climate changes on flooding (e.g., peak flow and river discharge) in the upper Ciliwung River basin in Greater Jakarta, Indonesia. Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), a rainfall-runoff simulation model, was used to simulate peak river discharge values for current and future conditions. The model was calibrated and validated based on the observed river discharge data from February 2007 and January 1996, respectively. The statistical analysis showed that the performance of the model is satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.64 and 0.58 for calibration and validation, respectively. The coefficients of determination values are 0.86 and 0.82, respectively. The effect of the projected land-use changes alone in 2030 increased the peak flow by approximately 20%. When considering the land-use changes in conjunction with the future climate scenario, the peak flow based on the precipitation corresponding to a 50-year return period in 2030 increased by 130%. Based on the results of this study, it is urgent that a flood management plan be implemented in the target area to reduce flooding in the near future. View Full-Text
Keywords: land-use; flood; HEC-HMS model; peak flow; climate change land-use; flood; HEC-HMS model; peak flow; climate change
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Rafiei Emam, A.; Mishra, B.K.; Kumar, P.; Masago, Y.; Fukushi, K. Impact Assessment of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Flooding Behavior in the Upper Ciliwung River, Jakarta, Indonesia. Water 2016, 8, 559.

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