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Water 2016, 8(1), 19; doi:10.3390/w8010019

Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation

State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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Academic Editor: Ataur Rahman
Received: 19 November 2015 / Revised: 31 December 2015 / Accepted: 4 January 2016 / Published: 11 January 2016
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Abstract

Watershed characteristics such as patterns of land use and land cover (LULC), soil structure and river systems, have substantially changed due to natural and anthropogenic factors. To adapt hydrological models to the changing characteristics of watersheds, one of the feasible strategies is to explicitly estimate the changed parameters. However, few approaches have been dedicated to these non-stationary conditions. In this study, we employ an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique with a constrained parameter evolution scheme to trace the parameter changes. This technique is coupled to a rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model. In addition to a stationary condition, we designed three typical non-stationary conditions, including sudden, gradual and rotational changes with respect to two behavioral parameters of the XAJ. Synthetic experiments demonstrated that the EnKF-based method can trace the three types of parameter changes in real time. This method shows robust performance even for the scenarios of high-level uncertainties within rainfall input, modeling and observations, and it holds an implication for detecting changes in watershed characteristics. Coupling this method with a rainfall-runoff model is useful to adapt the model to non-stationary conditions, thereby improving flood simulations and predictions. View Full-Text
Keywords: non-stationary condition; parameter change; parameter tracing; ensemble Kalman filter; rainfall-runoff model; uncertainty non-stationary condition; parameter change; parameter tracing; ensemble Kalman filter; rainfall-runoff model; uncertainty
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Meng, S.; Xie, X.; Yu, X. Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation. Water 2016, 8, 19.

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