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Water 2015, 7(8), 4362-4384;

Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall

Department of Harbor and River Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, 2 Pei-Ning Road, Keelung 20224, Taiwan
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz
Received: 18 May 2015 / Revised: 27 July 2015 / Accepted: 30 July 2015 / Published: 11 August 2015
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In this study, the geophysical properties of the landslide-prone catchment of the Gaoping River in Taiwan were investigated using zones based on landslide history in conjunction with landslide analysis using a deterministic approach based on the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability) model. Typhoon Morakot in 2009 was selected as a simulation scenario to calibrate the combination of geophysical parameters in each zone before analyzing changes in the factor of safety (FS). Considering the amount of response time required for typhoons, suitable FS thresholds for landslide warnings are proposed for each town in the catchment area. Typhoon Fanapi of 2010 was used as a test scenario to verify the applicability of the FS as well as the efficacy of the cumulative rainfall thresholds derived in this study. Finally, the amount of response time provided by the FS thresholds in cases of yellow and red alerts was determined. All five of the landslide events reported by the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau were listed among the unstable sites identified in the proposed model, thereby demonstrating its effectiveness and accuracy in determining unstable areas and areas that require evacuation. These cumulative rainfall thresholds provide a valuable reference to guide disaster prevention authorities in the issuance of yellow and red alerts with the ability to reduce losses and save lives. View Full-Text
Keywords: shallow landslide; deterministic method; TRIGRS model; factor of safety; cumulative rainfall shallow landslide; deterministic method; TRIGRS model; factor of safety; cumulative rainfall

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Chien, L.-K.; Hsu, C.-F.; Yin, L.-C. Warning Model for Shallow Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall. Water 2015, 7, 4362-4384.

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