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Optimizing Water Allocation under Uncertain System Conditions in Alfeios River Basin (Greece), Part A: Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Model with Deterministic Boundary Intervals
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Water 2015, 7(11), 6427-6466; doi:10.3390/w7116427

Optimizing Water Allocation under Uncertain System Conditions for Water and Agriculture Future Scenarios in Alfeios River Basin (Greece)—Part B: Fuzzy-Boundary Intervals Combined with Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming Model

1
Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, Technische Universität München, Arcisstrasse 21, München 80333, Germany
2
Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Patras, Patras 26504, Greece
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Miklas Scholz
Received: 16 August 2015 / Revised: 13 October 2015 / Accepted: 6 November 2015 / Published: 13 November 2015
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Abstract

Optimal water allocation within a river basin still remains a great modeling challenge for engineers due to various hydrosystem complexities, parameter uncertainties and their interactions. Conventional deterministic optimization approaches have given their place to stochastic, fuzzy and interval-parameter programming approaches and their hybrid combinations for overcoming these difficulties. In many countries, including Mediterranean countries, water resources management is characterized by uncertain, imprecise and limited data because of the absence of permanent measuring systems, inefficient river monitoring and fragmentation of authority responsibilities. A fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology developed by Li et al. (2010) is selected and applied in the Alfeios river basin (Greece) for optimal water allocation under uncertain system conditions. This methodology combines an ordinary multi-stage stochastic programming with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-boundary intervals. Upper- and lower-bound solution intervals for optimized water allocation targets and probabilistic water allocations and shortages are estimated under a baseline scenario and four water and agricultural policy future scenarios for an optimistic and a pessimistic attitude of the decision makers. In this work, the uncertainty of the random water inflows is incorporated through the simultaneous generation of stochastic equal-probability hydrologic scenarios at various inflow positions instead of using a scenario-tree approach in the original methodology. View Full-Text
Keywords: optimal water allocation; fuzzy; interval bounds; uncertainty; stochastic hydrologic scenarios; future scenarios optimal water allocation; fuzzy; interval bounds; uncertainty; stochastic hydrologic scenarios; future scenarios
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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Bekri, E.; Disse, M.; Yannopoulos, P. Optimizing Water Allocation under Uncertain System Conditions for Water and Agriculture Future Scenarios in Alfeios River Basin (Greece)—Part B: Fuzzy-Boundary Intervals Combined with Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming Model. Water 2015, 7, 6427-6466.

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