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Water 2014, 6(8), 2195-2211; doi:10.3390/w6082195
Article

Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models

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Received: 20 April 2014; in revised form: 10 July 2014 / Accepted: 16 July 2014 / Published: 25 July 2014
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Abstract: There is a growing requirement to generate more precise model simulations and forecasts of flows in urban drainage systems in both offline and online situations. Data assimilation tools are hence needed to make it possible to include system measurements in distributed, physically-based urban drainage models and reduce a number of unavoidable discrepancies between the model and reality. The latter can be achieved partly by inserting measured water levels from the sewer system into the model. This article describes how deterministic updating of model states in this manner affects a simulation, and then evaluates and documents the performance of this particular updating procedure for flow forecasting. A hypothetical case study and synthetic observations are used to illustrate how the Update method works and affects downstream nodes. A real case study in a 544 ha urban catchment furthermore shows that it is possible to improve the 20-min forecast of water levels in an updated node and the three-hour forecast of flow through a downstream node, compared to simulations without updating. Deterministic water level updating produces better forecasts when implemented in large networks with slow flow dynamics and with measurements from upstream basins that contribute significantly to the flow at the forecast location.
Keywords: data assimilation; deterministic hydraulic model; flow measurements; level measurements; St. Venant equations; updating; urban drainage systems data assimilation; deterministic hydraulic model; flow measurements; level measurements; St. Venant equations; updating; urban drainage systems
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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MDPI and ACS Style

Hansen, L.S.; Borup, M.; Møller, A.; Mikkelsen, P.S. Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models. Water 2014, 6, 2195-2211.

AMA Style

Hansen LS, Borup M, Møller A, Mikkelsen PS. Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models. Water. 2014; 6(8):2195-2211.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hansen, Lisbet S.; Borup, Morten; Møller, Arne; Mikkelsen, Peter S. 2014. "Flow Forecasting using Deterministic Updating of Water Levels in Distributed Hydrodynamic Urban Drainage Models." Water 6, no. 8: 2195-2211.


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