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Water 2018, 10(7), 883; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070883

Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years

1
National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3
Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing 401147, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 23 May 2018 / Revised: 26 June 2018 / Accepted: 27 June 2018 / Published: 2 July 2018
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Abstract

An assessment of the impact of climate change on regional hydrological processes is vital for effective water resources management and planning. This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on water availability, seasonal runoff, flooding, and water stress in the Yellow River and Pearl River basins in China over the next 30 years, using a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a combination of five general circulation models with four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The results indicated annual mean temperature could rise higher in the Yellow River Basin than the Xijiang River Basin during 2021–2050. Higher risks of small floods and some big floods, but lower risks of rare big floods are projected for both basins. Water scarcity will continually threaten the Yellow River Basin, especially during the dry season and around 2025. In comparison with the effects of climate change, population variation was expected to have a greater impact on water scarcity. A longer and drier dry season is projected for the Pearl River Basin, which could aggravate water stress and saltwater intrusion into the Pearl River delta. Although the present findings have implications for water resource management planning, caution should be observed because of the neglect of reservoir/dam operations and inherent projection uncertainty. View Full-Text
Keywords: water stress; floods; Yellow River; Xijiang River water stress; floods; Yellow River; Xijiang River
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Liu, L.; Jiang, T.; Xu, H.; Wang, Y. Potential Threats from Variations of Hydrological Parameters to the Yellow River and Pearl River Basins in China over the Next 30 Years. Water 2018, 10, 883.

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