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Water 2018, 10(6), 772; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060772

Nonstationary Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis in the Upper Zhanghe River Basin, China

1,2,* , 1,2,* , 1,2
and
1,2
1
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2
College of Hydrology and water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 May 2018 / Revised: 8 June 2018 / Accepted: 11 June 2018 / Published: 12 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

Design annual runoff is a classical issue in traditional univariate hydrological frequency analysis (HFA). We developed a multivariate HFA approach for designs for a study region covering the confluence of two streams. HFA relies on the assumption that probability distribution is consistent in the past, present, and future; however, it has been asserted as incorrect under an uncertain and changing environment. A change-point was detected in our study and adopted to divide runoff into two periods, with no significant trends in all subseries. The post-change design annual runoff witnessed dramatic mean value decline by about half at four frequencies (50%, 75%, 90% and 95%), which were selected in the bivariate analysis. Probability distribution models were constructed with univariate p-III distributions through Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel copulas and independence. Frank copula showed a generally better match with observations than others. The traditional approach, adding up the same-frequency results from both tributaries independently, was disproved by the systematically smaller design values in independence model than copulas and the 40% asynchronous encounter probability. The 25.6% worst synchronous dry-dry encounter situation may be a concern for water resource managers. Consequently, multivariate HFA should prevail as design approach in terms of water resources security. View Full-Text
Keywords: design annual runoff; hydrological frequency analysis; nonstationarity; trend detection; Copula; bivariate joint distribution design annual runoff; hydrological frequency analysis; nonstationarity; trend detection; Copula; bivariate joint distribution
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Gu, H.; Yu, Z.; Li, G.; Ju, Q. Nonstationary Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis in the Upper Zhanghe River Basin, China. Water 2018, 10, 772.

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