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Water 2018, 10(5), 647; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050647

Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Flood Flows at Ungauged Catchments Using Simple Regression and Generalized Estimating Equation Approaches

1
School of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea
2
Centre for Water in the Minerals Industry, University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia
3
Department of Information & Statistics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 28644, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 29 March 2018 / Revised: 3 May 2018 / Accepted: 14 May 2018 / Published: 16 May 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
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Abstract

Typhoons are the main type of natural disaster in Korea, and accurately predicting typhoon-induced flood flows at gauged and ungauged locations remains an important challenge. Flood flows caused by six typhoons since 2002 (typhoons Rusa, Maemi, Nari, Dienmu, Kompasu and Bolaven) are modeled at the outlets of 24 Geum River catchments using the Probability Distributed Moisture model. The Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox is applied with the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency as the criterion for model parameter estimation. Linear regression relationships between the parameters of the Probability Distributed Moisture model and catchment characteristics are developed for the purpose of generalizing the parameter estimates to ungauged locations. These generalized parameter estimates are tested in terms of ability to predict the flood hydrographs over the 24 catchments using a leave-one-out validation approach. We then test the hypothesis that a more complex generalization approach, the Generalized Estimating Equation, which includes properties of the typhoons as well as catchment characteristics as predictors of PDM model parameters, will provide more accurate predictions. The results show that the predictions of Generalized Estimating Equation are comparable to those of the simpler, conventional regression. The simpler approach is therefore recommended for practical applications; however, further refinements of the Generalized Estimating Equation approach may be explored. View Full-Text
Keywords: prediction of streamflow; rainfall runoff model; typhoon prediction of streamflow; rainfall runoff model; typhoon
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Lee, H.; McIntyre, N.; Kim, J.; Kim, S.; Lee, H. Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Flood Flows at Ungauged Catchments Using Simple Regression and Generalized Estimating Equation Approaches. Water 2018, 10, 647.

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