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Sustainability 2017, 9(5), 861; doi:10.3390/su9050861

Learning of Power Technologies in China: Staged Dynamic Two-Factor Modeling and Empirical Evidence

1
School of Management Science and Engineering, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
2
.School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Tomonobu Senjyu
Received: 18 April 2017 / Revised: 8 May 2017 / Accepted: 17 May 2017 / Published: 19 May 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Electric Power Systems Research)
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Abstract

Cost evolution has an important influence on the commercialization and large-scale application of power technology. Many researchers have analyzed the quantitative relationship between the cost of power technology and its influencing factors while establishing various forms of technical learning curve models. In this paper, we focus on the positive effects of the policy on research and development (R&D) learning by summarizing and comparing four energy technology cost models based on learning curves. We explore the influencing factors and dynamic change paths of power technology costs. The paper establishes a multi-stage dynamic two-factor learning curve model based on cumulative R&D investment and the installed capacity. This work presents the structural changes of the influencing factors at various stages. Causality analysis and econometric estimation of learning curves are performed on wind power and other power technologies. The conclusion demonstrates that a “learn by researching” approach had led to cost reduction of wind power to date, but, in the long term, the effect of “learn by doing” is greater than that of “learn by researching” when R&D learning is saturated. Finally, the paper forecasts the learning rates and the cost trends of the main power technologies in China. The work presented in this study has implications on power technology development and energy policy in China. View Full-Text
Keywords: learning curve; power technology; China learning curve; power technology; China
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Xu, Y.; Yuan, J.; Wang, J. Learning of Power Technologies in China: Staged Dynamic Two-Factor Modeling and Empirical Evidence. Sustainability 2017, 9, 861.

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