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Energies 2017, 10(2), 228; doi:10.3390/en10020228

Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

1,2
,
1,2,* , 3
and
1,2,*
1
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2
China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3
Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter Penryn Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Felipe Jimenez
Received: 25 December 2016 / Revised: 9 February 2017 / Accepted: 9 February 2017 / Published: 15 February 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Methods to Improve Energy Use in Road Vehicles)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [1783 KB, uploaded 15 February 2017]   |  

Abstract

This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV) in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China), analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives. View Full-Text
Keywords: electric vehicles (EV); market share; energy consumption; CO2 emission reduction; discrete choice model; Beijing case electric vehicles (EV); market share; energy consumption; CO2 emission reduction; discrete choice model; Beijing case
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Zhang, Q.; Ou, X.; Yan, X.; Zhang, X. Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case. Energies 2017, 10, 228.

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