J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 17, Issue 6 (June 2024) – 34 articles

This study investigated the impact of audit committee characteristics on earnings management based on data collected from the annual reports of banks operating in Dubai from 2010 to 2022. The audit committee’s independence and the number of members had a statistically significant effect on earnings management. Nevertheless, auditor reputation, gender, financial expertise, time commitment, and the number of meetings insignificantly affected earnings management. The implications of this study benefit both business leaders and investors, who aim to observe the actual state of their company’s finances by strengthening the auditing process. Full article

This paper investigates the estimation of the value at risk (VaR) across various probability levels for the log-returns of a comprehensive dataset comprising four thousand crypto-assets. Employing four recently introduced adaptive conformal inference (ACI) algorithms, we aim to provide robust uncertainty estimates crucial for effective risk management in financial markets. We contrast the performance of these ACI algorithms with that of traditional benchmark models, including GARCH models and daily range models. Despite the substantial volatility observed in the majority of crypto-assets, our findings indicate that ACI algorithms exhibit notable efficacy. In contrast, daily range models, and to a lesser extent, GARCH models, encounter challenges related to numerical convergence issues and structural breaks. Among the ACI algorithms, Fully Adaptive Conformal Inference (FACI) and Scale-Free Online Gradient Descent (SF-OGD) stand out for their ability to provide precise VaR estimates across all quantiles examined. Conversely, Aggregated Adaptive Conformal Inference (AgACI) and Strongly Adaptive Online Conformal Prediction (SAOCP) demonstrate proficiency in estimating VaR for extreme quantiles but tend to be overly conservative for higher probability levels. These conclusions withstand robustness checks encompassing the market capitalization of crypto-assets, time-series size, and different forecasting methods for asset log-returns. This study underscores the promise of ACI algorithms in enhancing risk assessment practices in the context of volatile and dynamic crypto-asset markets. Full article

Humanitarian crises caused by war, natural disasters, famine, or disease outbreaks are growing globally and are persistent human tragedies threatening human health, safety, and well-being. Digital-platform-based ecosystems’ corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities have become a vital tool to support humans during crises. However, little is known about the impact of the innovative CSR practices of digital-platform-based ecosystems during a crisis. Therefore, this study investigates this crucial question. Building on dynamic capabilities theory and using thematic analysis of 89 news articles and data from website sources and reports relating to Airbnb Inc.’s CSR innovation in the Afghan 2021 and the Russia–Ukraine 2022 humanitarian crises, we find that strategic digital-platform-based ecosystem-driven CSR interventions during crises can be helpful for society and for businesses. The results suggest Airbnb.org leveraged its resources and capabilities to provide innovative, quick, and timely responses to redefine refugee resettlement, promoting a platform to harness community partnerships, creating a robust collaboration model with international non-governmental organizations and non-governmental organizations, and initiating a novel financial inclusion strategy for refugees and displaced persons. This result also implies that CSR technological innovations during s crisis can be theoretically explained and have further significant implications for policymakers, companies, and societal stakeholders. Full article

The average country in Asia–Pacific experiences more natural disasters than average countries of other developing regions. This paper presents stylized facts on natural disasters, human development, and external debt in Asia–Pacific. The paper also contains estimates of the effects that natural disasters have on human development. Controlling for country- and time-fixed effects, the dynamic panel model estimates show that external debt has a mitigating effect on the adverse impacts that natural disasters have on human development; in countries with low external debt-to-GDP ratios, natural disasters significantly decrease the human development index, but not so in countries with high external debt-to-GDP ratios. External debt (i.e., borrowing from abroad) is a financial contract for obtaining resources from abroad (i.e., imports of goods and services). When a country experiencing a natural disaster borrows from abroad to increase imports of goods and services, the population suffers less when a natural disaster strikes. Natural disasters destroy goods and capital (e.g., food, machinery, buildings, and roads) in the countries in which they occur. If imports of goods and services do not increase, then the population has less goods and services to consume following a natural disaster. By increasing imports, which are mirrored on the financial side by an increase in external debt, the population of a country that was struck by a natural disaster can experience consumption smoothing. As the incidence of natural disasters increases globally, a policy recommendation for disaster-prone countries, supported by the empirical results of this paper, is the need for deeper and innovative mechanisms of access to international financing, including reforms in both domestic and international financial systems. The paper’s most significant contribution is the unique lens through which it analyzes the often-studied subject of natural disasters. Rather than looking at disasters as merely adverse events and debt as an unwelcome obligation in isolation, it connects the two and uncovers the paradoxically positive and beneficial role a healthy level of external debt can play in mitigating the adverse effects of these disasters. It provides a fresh perspective, a shift in thinking that may immensely benefit external debt and disaster management policies. Full article

This research investigates the influence of national culture, particularly power distance, on firms’ carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Drawing on a large international dataset spanning over a decade, we examine how power distance, agency conflict, and socioeconomic stability interact to shape firms’ emission decisions. Our analysis reveals a significant positive relationship between power distance and firms’ CO₂ emissions, indicating that firms located in countries characterized by higher power distance tend to emit more greenhouse gases (GHGs). Furthermore, we find that agency conflict moderates this relationship, with firms experiencing high levels of debt or paying substantial dividends exhibiting lower emissions in high power distance environments. Additionally, socioeconomic stability attenuates the positive association between power distance and emissions, suggesting that the effectiveness of cultural influences on emission decisions is contingent upon the stability of the societal context. These findings underscore the importance of considering cultural dimensions, agency dynamics, and socioeconomic conditions in understanding corporate environmental behavior. Our research contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the nuanced interplay between national culture, agency conflict, and socioeconomic stability in shaping firms’ emission decisions. Policymakers and practitioners can use these insights to develop more targeted environmental policies and strategies aimed at promoting sustainable development globally. Full article

This research aims to explore the fiscal and public finance viability on climate physical risk externalities cost for building social-economic-environmental sustainability. It analyzes climate physical risk impact on the real business cycle to change the macroeconomic output functions, its regressive cyclic impact alters tax revenue income and public expenditure function; This research also analyzes that the climate physical risk escalates social-economic inequality and change fiscal-financial policy functions, illustrates how the climate damage cost and adaptation cost distorts fiscal-finance cyclical and structural equilibrium function. This research uses binary and multinomial logistic regression analysis, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method (DSGE) and Bayesian estimation model. Based on the climate disaster compensation scenarios, damage cost and adaptation cost, analyzing the increased public expenditure and reduced revenue income, demonstrates how climate physical risk externalities generate binary regression to financial fiscal equilibrium, trigger structural and cyclical public budgetary deficit and fiscal cliff. This research explores counterfactual balancing measures to compensate the fiscal deficit from climate physical risk: effectively allocating resources and conducting the financial fiscal intervention, building greening fiscal financial system for creating climate fiscal space. Full article

The objective of this research paper is to investigate the association between internal Corporate Governance (CG) mechanisms and stock price volatility in Egypt as an emerging market. The paper investigates the impact of ownership structure and board structure as internal CG mechanisms on stock price volatility. Data are analyzed using a two-way fixed effects model, a one-step dynamic panel data model, and a panel weighted least squares model. The study concluded that ownership concentration has a negative influence on volatility. Interestingly, an inverted U-shaped relationship between the percentage of ownership by the greatest shareholder and volatility is evidenced. Managerial ownership also showed a negative influence on volatility. As for board structure mechanisms, the findings show that both board size and frequency of board meetings negatively influence volatility, whereas board independence has a positive impact. Full article

The stock market, characterised by its complexity and dynamic nature, presents significant challenges for predictive analytics. This research compares the effectiveness of neural network models in predicting the S&P500 index, recognising that a critical component of financial decision making is market volatility. The research examines neural network models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), taking into account their individual characteristics of pattern recognition, sequential data processing, and handling of nonlinear relationships. These models are analysed using key performance indicators such as the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Directional Accuracy, a metric considered essential for prediction in both the training and testing phases of this research. The results show that although each model has its own advantages, the GRU and CNN models perform particularly well according to these metrics. GRU has the lowest error metrics, indicating its robustness in accurate prediction, while CNN has the highest directional accuracy in testing, indicating its efficiency in data processing. This study highlights the potential of combining metrics for neural network models for consideration when making decisions due to the changing dynamics of the stock market. Full article

This study examines the capability of ChatGPT to provide financial advice based on personal finance cases. We first write our own cases and feed them to ChatGPT to get its advice (recommendations) on them. Next, we assess the quality and the validity of ChatGPT’s recommendations on these cases. We find that ChatGPT serves as a suitable starting point, but its recommendations tend to be generic, and they often overlook alternative solutions and viewpoints and priority of recommendations. Overall, our analysis demonstrates the strengths and weaknesses of using ChatGPT in personal finance matters. Further, it serves as a helpful guide to financial advisors, households, and instructors of personal finance who are already using or considering using ChatGPT and want to develop a suitable understanding of the benefits and limitations of this new technology in addressing their professional and personal needs. Full article

Political events significantly impact economic indices, including agricultural commodities. While Granger causality is a well-established method for analyzing interdependencies between time series data, its traditional application can be challenging to interpret across multiple periods. This research enhances the Granger causality method to quantify changes in the interlinkages among variables over time, offering a more intuitive framework for analyzing how political events affect economic indices. The proposed method involves conducting Granger causality tests across different periods, forming vectors from the results to capture transitions from Granger-causing to non-Granger-causing variables. These vector amplitudes provide quantitative measures of changes with explanatory power over time. The dataset includes eight variables over a decade, focusing on the following major geopolitical events: the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with an intermediate “no-shocks” period as the reference. The results show significant changes in the interlinkages among the variables during crisis periods compared to stable periods. This enhanced method provides valuable insights, informing trading strategies and risk management during periods of geopolitical instability. This innovative approach offers a novel tool for market participants to better understand and respond to economic shocks caused by political events. Full article

This study aims to investigate the relationship between returns and risk of Islamic stock under stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics within the scope of Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets. How do economic conditions affect the risks and returns of investors in the Indonesian and Asian Islamic capital markets? Verification of the veracity of the Islamic capital market serves as a more resilient option for alternative investments. This study uses Granger causality to determine exogenous and endogenous variables when building the model. The model that is formed is then analyzed using regression with dummy variables of stable economic conditions, crises, and pandemics. The first research findings on differences in crisis, stable and pandemic times in the Asian stock market show that there is no significant difference in effect between stable times and during a crisis, but there are differences in the effect during stable and pandemic times. The second research finding states that the return on Asian market Shariah stocks has no influence on increasing or reducing the value of risk or value at risk. The third finding explains that Islamic stocks in Indonesia have a greater risk value during pandemics and crises than in stable times, but the effect of pandemic and crisis conditions is not as great as Islamic stocks in Asia as a whole. In order to stabilize markets and reduce risks, regulatory bodies and governments frequently employ a variety of actions during times of crisis. When applied to trading volume, risk, and return patterns, these findings can help determine the appropriate policy. Full article

This paper investigates the effects of such CEO characteristics as gender, age, and education on the CEOs’ risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. The paper utilizes Execucomp, BoardEx, and Compustat data from 2005 to 2017 in order to give a novel perspective on how CEO characteristics may provide differing risk-taking positions when faced with varying levels of uncertainty. The results offer robust evidence that older CEOs generally take less risk—regardless of the level of economic policy uncertainty. However, more educated CEOs take less risk only during economically uncertain times. The results also indicate that while female CEOs tend to be younger and have lower levels of education, gender does not provide a significant difference in risk-taking behavior during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, we do not find any significant effect of insider status or corporate governance variables on CEO risk-taking under economic policy uncertainty once gender, age, and education are controlled for. Full article

This study delves into the relationships between the perception of corporate social responsibility (PCSR), organizational commitment and employee innovation behavior, as well as the multiple mediating roles of affective, normative and continuance commitment in the relationship between the perception of CSR and innovation behavior. This research involved 419 employees from 15 artificial intelligence (AI) enterprises in Shenzhen, China. This study’s hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling. The findings indicate that PCSR significantly impacts innovation behavior, and affective, continuance and normative commitments also positively influence innovation behavior. Moreover, these three commitments play a partial mediating role in the relationship between PCSR and innovation behavior. This study enriches and expands the understanding of the multiple mediating mechanisms between PCSR and employee innovation behavior, providing a theoretical basis and guidance for management to comprehensively understand the role of employees’ PCSR in enhancing organizational commitment and fostering innovation behavior. Full article

Policymakers, governments, and Islamic financial institutions are increasingly focusing on sustainable development, leading to an in-depth examination of current sustainable finance practices, projects, and product portfolios. This study examines the role of Islamic sustainable finance (ISF) in promoting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to avert financial risk in the management of Islamic Finance Products (ISFP). Through qualitative analysis, the study conducts a critical literature review (CLR) that incorporates conceptual, theoretical, and empirical perspectives on ISF and SDGs and addresses two specific research questions. Our study examines over 48 journals from 2010 to 2024 and provides insights into how ISF advances the SDGs across all environmental, social, and economic dimensions. It also highlights that ISF promotes green entrepreneurship by investing in sustainable projects, supporting SMEs, and offering alternative financing. ISF also promotes financial stability, justice, and growth and is consistent with the principles of Maqasid al-Shari’ah. Key ISF mechanisms that promote the SDGs include Islamic Green Sukuk, Socially Responsible Investment Funds, Islamic Microfinance, and Islamic Impact Investing. Integrating Islamic ethical principles into financial activities is crucial for inclusive and sustainable economic development. These qualitative insights are critical for policymakers, Islamic financial institutions, Halal entrepreneurs, environmentalists, and investors to understand the potential of Islamic social finance (ISF) to support sustainable practices, projects, and portfolios. Furthermore, the ISFs alignment with Maqasid al-Shari’ah highlights its importance in promoting sustainable development while mitigating financial risk in ISFPs management. The study offers robust contributions to the existing literature to provide comprehensive insights into how ISF can be effectively used to promote SDGs. Full article

This article provides both stylized facts and estimations of the endogenous nexus of the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) with public social spending (PSS) for a paradigmatic Eurozone member country. The sample period 1995–2022 includes three major economic crises, the global financial crisis 2007–2009, the European debt crisis 2010–2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic one in 2020–2022. Within the context of the financialization literature, this paper is founded, for the first time, as far as we know, on the “financial fragility hypothesis”, combining the effects of both Minsky’s “financial instability”, as it has been extended for open economies, and the “Eurozone fragility one”. Similar to the relevant literature, the findings show that the PSS is associated, in a long-term steady state (cointegration), with the financial fragility process, starting, firstly, from the hedge-financing structure with high profitability of firms, when PSS decreases; secondly, to hyper-speculative financing with risky options, supported by bank credit and openness, indebtedness or discretionary fiscal policy, when PSS rises; thirdly, to the hyper-speculative or even Ponzi financing structures with over-indebtedness (leverage) from the global capital market, inflated asset prices and internationalized fragility, when PSS also rises, and so on. Our conclusion validates Minsky’s famous saying, “stability breeds instability”, also in the architecturally incomplete Eurozone. Policy implications are straightforward and discussed. Full article

This paper addresses a void in the research on auditing and initial public offering (IPO) failure by investigating the impact of the Big 4 auditing firms on the likelihood of an IPO failure. This research is the first comprehensive analysis of more than 33,000 global IPOs that either failed or were successful between 1995 and 2019 across a wide range of nations with vastly different regulatory, cultural, and economic settings. A cross-sectional probit regression model is utilized to investigate the influence of hiring the Big 4 auditing firms on IPO failure, building upon prior studies on IPO failure. We found strong evidence that IPO failure rates were diminished by up to 67% when one of the Big 4 auditing firms was involved in auditing the IPO prospectus. For IPO founders, hiring Big 4 auditors before an IPO is a quality signaling strategy that minimizes the risk of a failed IPO by reducing information asymmetry among IPO participants. Our findings provide useful policy implications. Hiring one of the Big 4 auditing firms before an IPO is a reassuring signaling strategy for founders, since it decreases information asymmetry among IPO investors and so lowers the risk of the IPO failing. Primary market investors now have access to credible evidence indicating that backing IPOs from companies that use the Big 4 auditing firms increases the likelihood of such IPOs being listed on stock exchanges and yields positive returns. This is the first time, as far as the academicians are aware, that conclusive evidence has been found of a strong inverse association between the presence of Big 4 audits and failure risk for IPO firms. Our research could be helpful to primary market regulators since it shows how crucial it is to encourage Big 4 audits in IPO companies. The quality work of the Big 4 auditors does lower the risk of failure in the IPO market, which might help owners of small private equities to list their firms on the IPO market, boosting economic growth. Full article

Proportionality, pivotal to EU regulations and Solvency II, tailors rules to insurers’ size and complexity. Inconsistent application by supervisory authorities (NSAs) necessitates clarity to prevent undue costs. This study examines the issue via a review of the literature and industry discussions, emphasizing Solvency II’s introduction of proportionality and the varied interpretations it evokes. Transparent communication is crucial, and regulatory evolution must align with market dynamics, with the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) fostering convergence. Assessing proportionality mandates a comprehensive evaluation of an insurer’s nature, scale, and complexity. Regulatory distinctions between first-party and third-party risks could enhance market efficiency. Ultimately, a holistic, market-oriented approach is essential for proportionate regulation in the insurance sector, requiring concerted efforts to elucidate frameworks, foster transparency, and align regulatory evolution with market dynamics. Full article

This article deals with the liability of the supervisory authority of the financial market. It could be questioned whether the supervisory authority, as the public authority, is liable for the supervisory performance. If the answer is yes, then the question is what kind of liability could be found and if any special conditions (prerequisites) are needed. In general, there could be two lines of public liability found. One is systemic liability for the safe financial market—e.g., financial market stability. The other perspective is individual liability for damages caused by unlawful administrative procedure or maladministration, where unlimited strict liability is granted. This kind of liability might be widely questioned, especially when the central bank is the supervisory authority, like in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and other EU member states. This article aims to evaluate the liability of the supervisory authority in the Czech Republic and Hungary concerning the European level of such liability. Full article

This article is devoted to the examination of models and the selection of optimal parameters for concession agreements pertaining to construction and operation projects within the pipeline infrastructure of the petrochemical sector. Pipelines are underscored as capital-intensive assets crucial for the organization of complex petrochemical production processes. These processes play a vital role in generating added value, tax revenue, employment opportunities, and fostering territorial development while upholding environmental quality standards. This study aims to ascertain the economic parameters of concession agreements, with a focus on achieving a balance of economic interests between the government and businesses. Through a comparative analysis of fundamental economic and mathematical models of concession agreements, the authors model economic parameters to determine the government’s share in investments and concession fees concerning pipeline projects. Subsequently, an oil product pipeline project is discussed as a case study. The results gleaned from this analysis can be harnessed to optimize the parameters of concession agreements and enhance the economic efficiency of project implementation. Economically viable parameters not only facilitate the execution of concession agreements but also foster the generation of added value, social benefits, and environmental oversight, thus aligning with the principles of sustainable development. Full article

This study explores how financial development and openness influence the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. An analysis of data from about 100 countries between 1980 and 2018 reveals that both financial openness and development weaken the impact of monetary and fiscal policies. Our results further show that financial development in a country diminishes policy effectiveness depending on the country’s level of financial development; specifically, the more developed a country, the less effective the policies would be. Additionally, through a detailed examination employing a dynamic panel GMM approach, the study investigates the global repercussions of economic downturns in the US and how financial maturity shapes policy effectiveness during these times. We also discuss some policy implications that show that the positive impacts of monetary policy on output growth are lessened during crisis periods, and policymakers should act accordingly. Full article

This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders. Full article

This scoping review synthesizes the evidence from eleven key studies to assess the impact of European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIFs) on regional development across the European Union (EU), focusing on fund efficiency, regional disparities and convergence, governance quality, economic freedom, and fund management. A systematic search was conducted across multiple databases to identify the relevant literature published up to 2023. Eleven studies were selected based on the date published and their focus on ESIFs’ role in regional development, employing a range of methodological approaches including Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), spatial econometrics, and multivariate analyses. The thematic analysis identified four main categories: Methodological Approaches in Evaluating Fund Efficiency, Regional Disparities and Convergence, The Interconnection between Governance Quality, Economic Freedom, and the Efficiency of Structural Fund Management, and The Absorption Capacity and Fund Management. The review highlights the importance of sophisticated analytical tools in evaluating fund efficiency, with DEA and spatial econometrics providing critical insights into fund management efficiency. Studies underscored the nuanced efficacy of ESIFs in reducing regional disparities, albeit pointing to the need for more targeted fund allocation. Governance quality and economic freedom emerged as pivotal factors enhancing fund management efficiency, suggesting the potential of governance reforms in optimizing ESIF allocation and utilization. Challenges related to fund absorption and management were illuminated, advocating for enhanced institutional management capabilities and the development of innovative performance indicators. The findings of this scoping review contribute to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding ESIFs’ impact on regional development within the EU. They underscore the critical importance of governance quality, economic freedom, methodological rigor, and strategic fund allocation in enhancing the effectiveness of ESIFs. The review calls for tailored policy interventions and the integration of national and European funding strategies to maximize the impact of these programs on regional development and SME support. Future research should continue to refine these methodological approaches and explore the causal effects of funding, to enhance our understanding of ESIFs’ efficiency in promoting regional development and convergence within the European Union. Full article

The aim of this study is to examine whether good asset allocation by a CEO leads to superior stock returns and, if so, how one might be able to identify CEOs that are good asset allocators. Employing US data from May 2001 to April 2019, we find that CEOs that invest the company’s cash flows according to a value-investing style seem to outperform companies that do not. We find that high goodwill to assets and high operating margin (good asset allocator) companies outperform companies with high or low goodwill to assets and low operating margin (poor asset allocator) companies. The findings are corroborated with out-of-sample (May 2019–April 2023) robustness tests. When buying other businesses, value investor CEOs ensure that their consolidated operating margins remain high, as opposed to other firms managed by poor asset allocator CEOs who buy businesses that bring down operating margins, either because they overpay or due to an inability to materialize expected synergies. Using both summary statistics and regression analysis, the findings of this study help us identify companies that allocate assets like value investors and enable us to anticipate future stock performance. For example, if a company, on average, has a goodwill/assets ratio of 41.03%, and an operating margin of 21.38%, it is likely this firm would be at the top quartile in terms of stock return performance over at least the next three years. At the same time, if a firm has a low average goodwill/assets ratio (i.e., 1.95%), its operating margins, on average, should be 24.46%, if it wants to achieve a similar performance as that of firms with high goodwill/assets. Moreover, the future stock return predictability of high (low) goodwill/assets and high (low) operating margin firms, found in this study, can help an investor develop trading strategies that can lead to superior stock price performance by effectively taking long positions in (shorting) firms that are (not) managed by value investor CEOs. Finally, the paper’s findings can also help investors in another way. For example, investors tend to be skeptical about companies with high goodwill/assets. The rule of thumb is to beware of companies carrying goodwill on their balance sheets that is more than 25% of assets. Based on our findings, this should not be a problem as long as the company’s operating margin has remained high and is rising. Full article

The valuation of Goodwill (GW) has remained one of the several critical issues in financial analysis. This aspect is particularly important for mergers and acquisitions due to the significance of intangible assets. This study delves into the capitalization method of super profit (CMSP), a prominent technique for GW valuation, enhanced by the integration of statistical tools. Assessing a company’s excess profits over its average return on tangible assets is part of the CMSP. Finding the variables that have a significant impact on GW valuation, such as average profit, capital employed, and rate of return, is the main goal of this research. These issues are thoroughly investigated through statistical analysis to give stakeholders useful information for well-informed decision-making. Additionally, the study seeks to identify the external elements influencing this process as well as the internal aspects influencing GW valuation. Regression analysis, correlation matrices, response analysis and ANOVA are used to improve GW assessment and comprehension of the complex relationships between different factors. Full article

This study analyzed the statement “diversification is a free lunch”. We empirically showed that diversification is only a free lunch under uncertainty or ignorance, confirming Warren Buffett’s “diversification is protection against ignorance”. Using historical returns of the S&P500 constituents illustrated that diversification not only decreased the risk but also the returns if the expected returns could be estimated. The findings of this study highlight that diversification reduces risk but that the risk reduction is not for free. Full article

In the dynamic sphere of financial markets, hedge funds have emerged as a critical force, navigating through volatility with advanced risk management techniques yet grappling with the challenges posed by illiquid assets. This study aims to transcend traditional option pricing models, which struggle under the complexities of hedge fund investments, by exploring the applicability of machine learning in financial risk management. Leveraging Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells, the research introduces a model-free, data-driven approach for discrete-time hedging problems. Through a comparative analysis of simulated data and the implementation of LSTM architectures, the paper elucidates the potential of these machine learning techniques to enhance the precision of risk assessments and decision-making processes in hedge fund investments. The findings reveal that DNNs and LSTMs offer significant advancements over conventional models, effectively capturing long-term dependencies and complex patterns within financial time series data. Consequently, the study underscores the transformative impact of machine learning on the methodologies employed in financial risk management, proposing a novel paradigm that promises to mitigate the intricacies of hedging illiquid assets. This research not only contributes to the academic discourse but also paves the way for the development of more adaptive and resilient investment strategies in the face of market uncertainties. Full article

This paper investigates the impact of debt financing on dividend payments when they face the agency costs of free cash flow. It focuses on a sample of 120 firms listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange during the period of 2011–2021. The findings from the Generalized Least Squares regression model revealed that the presence of agency costs of free cash flows may limit the funds available for dividend payments. Regarding the moderating effect of debt structure, the research highlights the significant role of long-term debt in making more prudent use of free cash flow. The use of long-term debt becomes more effective and can enhance shareholder wealth when a firm is facing agency costs of free cash flow. More specifically, bondholders primarily focus on affirmative covenants which require the firm to undertake specified actions such as maintaining assets and financial ratios, or paying taxes, but they do not restrict financing activities such as dividend payments. Since interest and debt repayments are fixed obligations, using free cash flow for dividend disbursement is considered a more profitable and beneficial approach for shareholders in the context of Saudi Arabia. This study contributes to our understanding of financial management under different debt structures and improves our scientific knowledge of the culture of Saudi firms regarding the dividend distribution policy. Full article

This study explored the impacts of ownership structure (OS) on intellectual capital (IC) and its components. Data were gathered from 31 Dhaka Stock Exchange-listed banks for five years, from 2017 to 2021, consisting of 155 observations as balanced panel data. The study used the modified value-added intellectual coefficient (MVAIC) model to track the IC efficiency. The robust fixed effects model was employed for regression analysis to test the hypotheses. The research found that sponsor director ownership is negatively associated with the MVAIC, human capital efficiency (HCE), and structural capital efficiency (SCE) but positively with relational capital efficiency (RCE). High institutional and public ownership are positively linked with SCE but negatively with RCE. Foreign ownership is only positively associated with banks’ MVAIC and HCE. The regression results showed that high institutional ownership (IO) significantly enhanced the MVAIC and HCE. Foreign and public ownership positively influenced banks’ MVAIC, HCE, and capital employed efficiency (CEE) but negatively impacted RCE. The findings of this study will help banks’ policymakers with ownership mixes for the optimum utilization of banks’ resources. Management may assess IC’s efficiency level for proper supervision and use of knowledge resources to boost bank profitability. Also, the findings will help investors make prudent investment decisions. This is the first study to focus on OS and IC with diverse elements in Southeast Asia, especially Bangladesh, an emerging market. Full article

The aim of this study is to delve into the intricate the mechanism through which alterations in currency exchange rates give rise to shifts in inflation rates, while taking into careful consideration the country’s economic cycle. In order to accomplish this objective, we used a dataset that spanned from 1 January 1999 to 1 July 2023, focusing our analytical lens on three specific geographic areas, namely the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In our pursuit of understanding this complex relationship, we employed the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive model. Our research outcomes can be succinctly encapsulated as follows: in the initial stages, particularly during phases characterized by robust economic growth, the transmission of exchange rate effects onto inflation levels appeared to exhibit a partial impact across all geographic areas under examination. However, during periods marked by economic downturns, both the United Kingdom and Canada displayed a distinctly more comprehensive transmission of these effects. Moreover, the prevailing projections for the forthcoming time horizon, across all the countries encompassed by our study, strongly indicate the onset of an expansionary phase that is projected to extend over a span of 25 months. Lastly, concerning the implications of unexpected disturbances or shocks, it is noteworthy that the response of exchange rates to inflation induced shocks was neither immediate nor as pronounced as the corresponding reaction of inflation to sudden shifts in exchange rates. Full article

Are common stocks issued by timberland companies a good investment? Portfolios of large US timberland corporations are compared to simultaneous investments in a diversified US common stock index. Over a 20-year sample period it turns out that the US timberland corporations, on average, perform about as well as the highly diversified US stock market index. It is surprising that the timberland companies do not outperform the stock market indexes because, in order to encourage tree planting, the US Congress has almost completely exempted timberland companies from paying federal income taxes. Furthermore, it is scientifically impossible to assess the value of the large amounts of photosynthesis that the timberland companies produce. As a result of these two ambiguities, it is difficult to state decisively that the timberland companies are better investments than a diversified portfolio of common stocks. However, valuing timberland companies is more practical than endeavoring to value the trees directly. Full article