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Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States
Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute, 19 T.W. Alexander Drive Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA
Statistics Department, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 7 June 2010; in revised form: 1 July 2010 / Accepted: 9 July 2010 / Published: 14 July 2010
Abstract: There is a growing interest in quantifying the health impacts of climate change. This paper examines the risks of future ozone levels on non-accidental mortality across 19 urban communities in Southeastern United States. We present a modeling framework that integrates data from climate model outputs, historical meteorology and ozone observations, and a health surveillance database. We first modeled present-day relationships between observed maximum daily 8-hour average ozone concentrations and meteorology measured during the year 2000. Future ozone concentrations for the period 2041 to 2050 were then projected using calibrated climate model output data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Daily community-level mortality counts for the period 1987 to 2000 were obtained from the National Mortality, Morbidity and Air Pollution Study. Controlling for temperature, dew-point temperature, and seasonality, relative risks associated with short-term exposure to ambient ozone during the summer months were estimated using a multi-site time series design. We estimated an increase of 0.43 ppb (95% PI: 0.14–0.75) in average ozone concentration during the 2040’s compared to 2000 due to climate change alone. This corresponds to a 0.01% increase in mortality rate and 45.2 (95% PI: 3.26–87.1) premature deaths in the study communities attributable to the increase in future ozone level.
Keywords: climate change; health impact; ground-level ozone
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MDPI and ACS Style
Chang, H.H.; Zhou, J.; Fuentes, M. Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 2866-2880.
Chang HH, Zhou J, Fuentes M. Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2010; 7(7):2866-2880.
Chang, Howard H.; Zhou, Jingwen; Fuentes, Montserrat. 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 7, no. 7: 2866-2880.