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Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling
Meteorological Institute, University of Freiburg, Werthmannstraße 10, D-79085 Freiburg, Germany
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 10 June 2010; in revised form: 8 July 2010 / Accepted: 9 July 2010 / Published: 21 July 2010
Abstract: The potential development of heat-related mortality in the 21th century for Vienna (Austria) was assessed by the use of two regional climate models based on the IPCC emissions scenarios A1B and B1. Heat stress was described with the human-biometeorological index PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature). Based on the relation between heat stress and mortality in 1970–2007, we developed two approaches to estimate the increases with and without long-term adaptation. Until 2011–2040 no significant changes will take place compared to 1970–2000, but in the following decades heat-related mortality could increase up to 129% until the end of the century, if no adaptation takes place. The strongest increase occurred due to extreme heat stress (PET ≥ 41 °C). With long-term adaptation the increase is less pronounced, but still notable. This encourages the requirement for additional adaptation measurements.
Keywords: mortality; physiologically equivalent temperature; regional modeling; climate change; heat stress; Vienna
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MDPI and ACS Style
Muthers, S.; Matzarakis, A.; Koch, E. Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 2965-2977.
Muthers S, Matzarakis A, Koch E. Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2010; 7(7):2965-2977.
Muthers, Stefan; Matzarakis, Andreas; Koch, Elisabeth. 2010. "Climate Change and Mortality in Vienna—A Human Biometeorological Analysis Based on Regional Climate Modeling." Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 7, no. 7: 2965-2977.