Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Mathematical Model
3. Numerical Results
3.1. Parameter Estimation
3.2. Model Selection
3.3. Fitting Results
3.4. Estimation of Basic Reproduction Numbers
3.5. Modeling Interventions
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Case 1 | Case 2 | Case 3 | |
---|---|---|---|
0.5583 (0.5522–0.5643) | 0.7401 (0.7328–0.7475) | 0.7580 (0.7545–0.7615) | |
0.1125 (0.1086–0.1165) | 0.2761 (0.2713–0.2809) | 0.2798 (0.2788–0.2808) | |
0.0676 (0.0662–0.0691) | 0.0942 (0.0924–0.0960) | 0.0752 (0.0727–0.0777) | |
ε () | - | 1.1846 (1.1844–1.1848) | - |
M () | - | - | 1.2911 (1.2910–1.2912) |
177.9735 | 180.0358 | 179.9576 | |
181.4021 | 186.7025 | 186.6243 | |
Δ | 0 | 5.3004 | 5.2222 |
95% CI | 95% CI | 95% CI | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainland China | 0.6185 | (0.6118-0.6252) | 0.5193 | (0.5013–0.5475) | 1.1379 | (1.1131–1.1727) |
Xinjiang | 0.2864 | (0.1916–0.3812) | 1.5131 | (1.4110–1.6157) | 1.7995 | (1.6025–1.9970) |
Shandong | 0.4347 | (0.2987–0.5706) | 1.1812 | (1.0474–1.3179) | 1.6159 | (1.3461–1.8885) |
Liaoning | 0.1886 | ( 0.1148–0.2625) | 1.2482 | (1.1835–1.3125) | 1.4369 | (1.2983–1.5750) |
Henan | 0.2213 | (0.1694–0.2733) | 1.3132 | (1.2024–1.2789) | 1.5346 | (1.3719–1.6973) |
Ningxia | 0.4417 | (0.2469–0.6365) | 1.2931 | (1.2013–1.8051) | 1.8348 | (1.4482–2.4417) |
Shanxi | 0.7623 | (0.7120–0.8127) | 0.4456 | (0.3579–0.5324) | 1.2079 | (1.0699–1.3451) |
Hebei | 0.5012 | (0.4341–0.5683) | 0.6208 | (0.5210–0.7203) | 1.1220 | (0.9550–1.2886) |
Heilongjiang | 0.4808 | (0.4039–0.5577) | 0.6946 | (0.6183–0.7714) | 1.1754 | (1.0222–1.3292) |
Shaanxi | 0.6708 | (0.5869–0.7546) | 0.3519 | (0.2595–0.4443) | 1.0227 | (0.8464-1.1990) |
Inner Mongolia | 0.6135 | (0.5896–0.6375) | 0.5854 | (0.5475–0.6233 ) | 1.1989 | (1.1371–1.2608) |
Jilin | 0.6974 | (0.4775–0.9174) | 1.0782 | (0.9005–1.2559 ) | 1.7756 | (1.3780–2.1734) |
Vaccination Rate | Removal Rate | Disinfection Frequency () | |
---|---|---|---|
Mainland China | 0.1478 | 0.1245 | 3 |
Xinjiang | 0.5418 | 0.6686 | 9 |
Shandong | 0.4648 | 0.8132 | 8 |
Liaoning | 0.3708 | 0.4331 | 4 |
Henan | 0.4248 | 0.5770 | 5 |
Ningxia | 0.5549 | 0.7108 | 11 |
Shanxi | 0.2099 | 0.1058 | 7 |
Hebei | 0.1326 | 0.1512 | 2 |
Heilongjiang | 0.1820 | 0.1379 | 3 |
Shaanxi | 0.0271 | 0.0154 | 1 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.2023 | 0.2034 | 4 |
Jilin | 0.5327 | 0.5847 | 19 |
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Li, M.-T.; Sun, G.-Q.; Zhang, W.-Y.; Jin, Z. Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030295
Li M-T, Sun G-Q, Zhang W-Y, Jin Z. Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(3):295. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030295
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Ming-Tao, Gui-Quan Sun, Wen-Yi Zhang, and Zhen Jin. 2017. "Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 3: 295. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030295