Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Study Design and Setting
2.2. Study Population and Data Collection
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics of Diarrhoea Disease and Climatic Variables
3.2. Trend of Temperature and Incidence of Diarrhoea
3.3. Poisson Regression Model
4. Discussion
Study Strengths and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Climatic Variables | Period 1 * | Period 2 * | * Period 1 + 2 |
---|---|---|---|
Min Temperature | |||
Mean (SD) | 14.50 (3.20) | 15.20 (2.70) | 14.80 (2.90) |
Range (Min, Max) | 8.30 to 18.70 | 10 to 19.30 | 8.30 to 19.30 |
Max Temperature | |||
Mean (SD) | 25.00 (2.60) | 25.90 (2.90) | 25.10 (2.70) |
Range (Min, Max) | 20.90 to 30.60 | 20.10 to 32.50 | 20.10 to 32.50 |
Diarrhoea Incident Cases | |||
N | 27,031 | 31,586 | 58,617 |
Incidence/100, 95% | 7.85/100, (7.76–7.96) | 9.29/100, (9.19–9.39) | 8.57/100, (8.50–8.63) |
CI | Population at risk 344,238 | Population at risk: 339,999 | Population at risk: 684,237 |
Sub-Districts Names | November 2012–May 2013 | November 2013–May 2014 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Number of Cases | Population at Risk * | Number of Cases | Population Risk * | |
Northern | 2642 | 29,288 | 2832 | 28,928 |
Tygerberg | 4837 | 54,367 | 4599 | 53,698 |
Klipfontein | 2580 | 35,617 | 3009 | 35,178 |
Mitchell’s Plain | 4225 | 44,904 | 4992 | 44,351 |
Eastern | 2924 | 49,805 | 3765 | 49,191 |
Khayelitsha | 4814 | 47,099 | 5667 | 46,520 |
Southern | 2433 | 44,536 | 3264 | 43,987 |
Western | 2576 | 38,622 | 3458 | 38,147 |
Cluster/Sub-District | Minimum Temperature (5 °C Increase) | Maximum Temperature (5 °C Increase) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
IRR | 95% CI | IRR | 95% CI | |
All (in total) | 1.39 | 1.30–1.48 | 1.311 | 1.224–1.405 |
Northern subdistrict | 1.38 | 1.19–1.60 | 1.29 | 1.11–1.51 |
Tygerberg subdistrict | 1.31 | 1.16–1.47 | 1.24 | 1.09–1.41 |
Klipfontein subdistrict | 1.42 | 1.21–1.67 | 1.35 | 1.14–1.59 |
Mitchell’s plain | 1.42 | 1.18–1.70 | 1.29 | 1.07–1.57 |
Eastern subdistrict | 1.39 | 1.16–1.66 | 1.29 | 1.07–1.55 |
Khayelitsha subdistrict | 1.63 | 1.34–1.99 | 1.46 | 1.19–1.79 |
Southern subdistrict | 1.48 | 1.24–1.78 | 1.39 | 1.16–1.67 |
Western Sub-district | 1.46 | 1.16–1.83 | 1.33 | 1.05–1.67 |
(AC 1) Cluster/Sub-District | Minimum Temperature (AC (1) of 5 °C Increase) | Maximum Temperature (AC (1) of 5 °C Increase) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
IRR | 95% CI | IRR | 95% CI | |
All (in total) | 1.15 | 1.09–1.20 | 1.06 | 1.01–1.12 |
Northern sub-district | 1.17 | 1.01–1.35 | 1.07 | 0.92–1.24 |
Tygerberg sub-ditrict | 1.15 | 1.04–1.26 | 1.08 | 0.97–1.19 |
Klipfontein sub-district | 1.16 | 1.04–1.29 | 1.14 | 1.02–1.27 |
Mitchell’s Plain | 1.15 | 1.02–1.31 | 1.08 | 0.95–1.22 |
Eastern sub-district | 1.15 | 0.98–1.35 | 1.05 | 0.89–1.23 |
Khayelithsa | 1.25 | 1.09–1.44 | 1.12 | 0.98–1.29 |
Southern sub-district | 1.17 | 1.02–1.34 | 1.09 | 0.95–1.25 |
Western sub-district | 1.13 | 0.96–1.34 | 0.95 | 0.79–1.12 |
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Musengimana, G.; Mukinda, F.K.; Machekano, R.; Mahomed, H. Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 859. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13090859
Musengimana G, Mukinda FK, Machekano R, Mahomed H. Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(9):859. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13090859
Chicago/Turabian StyleMusengimana, Gentille, Fidele K. Mukinda, Roderick Machekano, and Hassan Mahomed. 2016. "Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 13, no. 9: 859. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13090859