Next Article in Journal
Heat Waves and Morbidity: Current Knowledge and Further Direction-A Comprehensive Literature Review
Previous Article in Journal
Prevalence of Marijuana Use among University Students in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(5), 5241-5255; doi:10.3390/ijerph120505241

Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

1
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra 2601, Australia
2
Duke Global Health Institute, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan 215316, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou
Received: 10 April 2015 / Revised: 11 May 2015 / Accepted: 11 May 2015 / Published: 18 May 2015
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [828 KB, uploaded 18 May 2015]   |  

Abstract

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. View Full-Text
Keywords: heat storage; simulation model; population-level; MANMO; heat strain heat storage; simulation model; population-level; MANMO; heat strain
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Supplementary material

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Glass, K.; Tait, P.W.; Hanna, E.G.; Dear, K. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 5241-5255.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top