Next Article in Journal
On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?
Next Article in Special Issue
Rapid Assessment of Environmental Health Impacts for Policy Support: The Example of Road Transport in New Zealand
Previous Article in Journal
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Medical Students: Letter from China
Previous Article in Special Issue
Noise Effects on Health in the Context of Air Pollution Exposure
Article Menu

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(10), 13295-13320; doi:10.3390/ijerph121013295

Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment

International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, P.O. Box 616, 6200-MD Maastricht, The Netherlands
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Wim Passchier and Luc Hens
Received: 17 August 2015 / Accepted: 12 October 2015 / Published: 23 October 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Cumulative and Integrated Health Impact Assessment)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [788 KB, uploaded 23 October 2015]   |  

Abstract

Although people will most likely adjust to warmer temperatures, it is still difficult to assess what this adaptation will look like. This scenario-based integrated health impacts assessment explores baseline (1981–2010) and future (2050) population attributable fractions (PAF) of mortality due to heat (PAFheat) and cold (PAFcold), by combining observed temperature–mortality relationships with the Dutch KNMI’14 climate scenarios and three adaptation scenarios. The 2050 model results without adaptation reveal a decrease in PAFcold (8.90% at baseline; 6.56%–7.85% in 2050) that outweighs the increase in PAFheat (1.15% at baseline; 1.66%–2.52% in 2050). When the 2050 model runs applying the different adaptation scenarios are considered as well, however, the PAFheat ranges between 0.94% and 2.52% and the PAFcold between 6.56% and 9.85%. Hence, PAFheat and PAFcold can decrease as well as increase in view of climate change (depending on the adaptation scenario). The associated annual mortality burdens in 2050—accounting for both the increasing temperatures and mortality trend—show that heat-related deaths will range between 1879 and 5061 (1511 at baseline) and cold-related deaths between 13,149 and 19,753 (11,727 at baseline). Our results clearly illustrate that model outcomes are not only highly dependent on climate scenarios, but also on adaptation assumptions. Hence, a better understanding of (the impact of various) plausible adaptation scenarios is required to advance future integrated health impact assessments. View Full-Text
Keywords: adaptation; climate change; cold; health; heat; mortality; temperature; scenarios adaptation; climate change; cold; health; heat; mortality; temperature; scenarios
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

Scifeed alert for new publications

Never miss any articles matching your research from any publisher
  • Get alerts for new papers matching your research
  • Find out the new papers from selected authors
  • Updated daily for 49'000+ journals and 6000+ publishers
  • Define your Scifeed now

SciFeed Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Huynen, M.M.T.E.; Martens, P. Climate Change Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the Netherlands: A Scenario-Based Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 13295-13320.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health EISSN 1660-4601 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top