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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(10), 12577-12604; doi:10.3390/ijerph121012577

Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

1
Natural Resources and the Environment Unit, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
2
Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
3
School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2000, South Africa
4
Meteorology Department, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK
5
Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0028, South Africa
Current Address: Tlhoeko Consultants, P.O. Box 2421, Maseru 100, Lesotho.
Current Address: Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Private Bag x385, Pretoria 0001, South Africa.
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Michael E. Goodsite and Hans Sanderson
Received: 12 June 2015 / Revised: 21 August 2015 / Accepted: 7 September 2015 / Published: 12 October 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Climate Change and Contaminants)
View Full-Text   |   Download PDF [3833 KB, uploaded 12 October 2015]   |  

Abstract

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; human health; Africa; regional climate modelling; climate services climate change; human health; Africa; regional climate modelling; climate services
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Garland, R.M.; Matooane, M.; Engelbrecht, F.A.; Bopape, M.-J.M.; Landman, W.A.; Naidoo, M.; Merwe, J.; Wright, C.Y. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 12577-12604.

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