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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10(5), 1698-1719; doi:10.3390/ijerph10051698

A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations

1,2,†,* , 3,†
1 CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France 2 CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Montpellier F-34398, France 3 EID Méditerranée, Montpellier F-34184, France 4 Biodiversity Research Center, Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve B-1348, Belgium 5 SIRS, Montpellier F-34093, France 6 INRA, UMR1300 Biologie, épidémiologie et analyse de risques en santé animale, Nantes F-44307, France 7 ONIRIS, LUNAM Université Nantes Angers Le Mans, Nantes F-44307, France 8 CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, Montpellier F-34398, France Authors who contributed equally to the work.
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 2 March 2013 / Revised: 9 April 2013 / Accepted: 12 April 2013 / Published: 26 April 2013
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Determinants of Infectious Disease Transmission)
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The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model’s main control points were related to adult’s mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.
Keywords: Aedes albopictus; arbovirus; population dynamics; modelling; sensitivity analysis Aedes albopictus; arbovirus; population dynamics; modelling; sensitivity analysis
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Tran, A.; L'Ambert, G.; Lacour, G.; Benoît, R.; Demarchi, M.; Cros, M.; Cailly, P.; Aubry-Kientz, M.; Balenghien, T.; Ezanno, P. A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2013, 10, 1698-1719.

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