Assessing the Impacts of Labor Force Sustainability in Terms of Population Ageing on the Economic Sustainability

: The age structure of a population will affect the labor force sustainability, which ultimately affects the economic sustainability of a country. This study aims to develop a model for assessing the labor force sustainability in terms of population ageing and its impacts on economic sustainability in different industries and the national economy. This model is based on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) mechanism that consists of three components: (1) forecast of labor supply; (2) forecast of labor demand; and (3) assessment of the impacts of labor market imbalance (shortage) on the macroeconomy. The results of the economic forecast of China prove that this model can effectively assess the impacts of labor market imbalance on economically sustainable development. Furthermore, a simulation forecast of China from 2014 to 2030 was performed. The results show that the contributions of most of China’s industries to the gross domestic product (GDP) show a negative growth trend. From the medium- and long-term points of view, the influence of population ageing to the labor-intensive industries is the most serious. The construction industry’s contribution to GDP growth rate still shows a rising trend, but the growth rate decreases annually. The service industry’s contribution to GDP growth rate shows a significant upward trend, but the rate is decreasing annually. Economic growth shows a declining trend. Population ageing has little influence on consumption and investment, but in absolute numbers, the GDPs growth rate is lower in scenarios that consider population ageing than in scenarios that do not. The pulling effect of exports to economic growth will continue to decrease.