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Forecasting
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Time Series Analysis of Global Climate Change
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Time Series Analysis of Global Climate Change

A special issue of Forecasting (ISSN 2571-9394). This special issue belongs to the section "Weather and Forecasting".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2022) | Viewed by 8738

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Umberto Triacca

E-Mail
Guest Editor
University of L'Aquila/Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, via Vetoio 1, L'Aquila, 67100, Italy
Interests: climate change; cointegration; Granger causality; time series; vector autoregressive models

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue aims to promote the use of  time series  methods for the statistical analysis of climate data, with particular emphasis on the detection and attribution of climate change. Detection refers to the statistical assessment of the significance and relevance of the change occurring in the climate system, or in a natural or human system affected by climate. Attribution aims to quantify the links between observed climate variation and both human and natural drivers of change (anthropogenic forcing, solar variations, and volcanic eruptions).

We solicit the submission of papers that capture the essential features of climate series, such as possible non-stationarity, nonlinearity, seasonality, and cycles (for instance, related to transitory phenomena such as volcanic eruptions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation). We also welcome submissions in the field of  attribution of climate change highlighting interesting statistical challenges to which time series methods can contribute.  A further aim is to establish and to evaluate methods for predicting temperature trends and global sea level rise or other climate variables. Accurate and reliable decadal prediction is crucial for feeding impact models and correctly quantifying the real consequences on territories and ecosystems in the near future.

Prof. Umberto Triacca
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Forecasting is an international peer-reviewed open access quarterly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • climate change
  • forecasting
  • global warming
  • neural networks
  • time series methods

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

31 pages, 5068 KiB  
Article
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure
by Andrew C. W. Leung, William A. Gough and Tanzina Mohsin
Forecasting 2022, 4(1), 95-125; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 - 13 Jan 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3271
Abstract
The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of [...] Read more.
The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Time Series Analysis of Global Climate Change)
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14 pages, 6651 KiB  
Article
Visual Analytics for Climate Change Detection in Meteorological Time-Series
by Milena Vuckovic and Johanna Schmidt
Forecasting 2021, 3(2), 276-289; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast3020018 - 19 Apr 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3187
Abstract
The importance of high-resolution meteorological time-series data for detection of transformative changes in the climate system is unparalleled. These data sequences allow for a comprehensive study of natural and forced evolution of warming and cooling tendencies, recognition of distinct structural changes, and periodic [...] Read more.
The importance of high-resolution meteorological time-series data for detection of transformative changes in the climate system is unparalleled. These data sequences allow for a comprehensive study of natural and forced evolution of warming and cooling tendencies, recognition of distinct structural changes, and periodic behaviors, among other things. Such inquiries call for applications of cutting-edge analytical tools with powerful computational capabilities. In this regard, we documented the application potential of visual analytics (VA) for climate change detection in meteorological time-series data. We focused our study on long- and short-term past-to-current meteorological data of three Central European cities (i.e., Vienna, Munich, and Zürich), delivered in different temporal intervals (i.e., monthly, hourly). Our aim was not only to identify the related transformative changes, but also to assert the degree of climate change signal that can be derived given the varying granularity of the underlying data. As such, coarse data granularity mostly offered insights on general trends and distributions, whereby a finer granularity provided insights on the frequency of occurrence, respective duration, and positioning of certain events in time. However, by harnessing the power of VA, one could easily overcome these limitations and go beyond the basic observations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Time Series Analysis of Global Climate Change)
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