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Hydrology 2015, 2(4), 210-229; doi:10.3390/hydrology2040210

Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Analysis in the Ouémé River Basin, Benin Republic

1
West Africa Science Service Centre on Climate change and Adapted Land Use, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi BP 2008, Benin
2
Laboratory of Applied Hydrology, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 4521 Cotonou, Benin
3
Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, Bonn 53115, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Luca Brocca
Received: 31 August 2015 / Revised: 13 October 2015 / Accepted: 26 October 2015 / Published: 2 November 2015
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Abstract

A statistical model to predict the probability and magnitude of floods in non-stationary conditions is presented. The model uses a time-dependent and/or covariate-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to fit the annual maximal (AM) discharge, and it is applied to five gauging stations in the Ouémé River Basin in Benin Republic, West Africa. Different combinations of the model parameters, which vary with respect to time and/or climate covariates, were explored with the stationary model based on three criteria of goodness of fit. The non-stationary model more adequately explains a substantial amount of variation in the data. The GEV-1 model, which incorporates a linear trend in its location parameter, surpasses the other models. Non-stationary return levels for different return periods have been proposed for the study area. This case study tested the hypothesis of stationarity in estimating flood events in the basin and it demonstrated the strong need to account for changes over time when performing flood frequency analyses. View Full-Text
Keywords: break points; non-stationary extreme value; climate indexes; flood frequency analysis; Ouémé basin break points; non-stationary extreme value; climate indexes; flood frequency analysis; Ouémé basin
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Hounkpè, J.; Diekkrüger, B.; Badou, D.F.; Afouda, A.A. Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Analysis in the Ouémé River Basin, Benin Republic. Hydrology 2015, 2, 210-229.

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