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Foods 2015, 4(3), 420-439; doi:10.3390/foods4030420

A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique

1
Department of Organic Food Quality and Food Culture, University of Kassel, Nordbahnhofstr. 1a, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany
2
Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Christopher J. Smith
Received: 15 May 2015 / Revised: 28 July 2015 / Accepted: 13 August 2015 / Published: 11 September 2015
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Abstract

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate variability; THI; ETI; milk compounds; bootstrap; uncertainty; Iran climate variability; THI; ETI; milk compounds; bootstrap; uncertainty; Iran
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).

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MDPI and ACS Style

Milani, M.R.M.; Hense, A.; Rahmani, E.; Ploeger, A. A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique. Foods 2015, 4, 420-439.

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