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Separations 2018, 5(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/separations5030044

Model Distribution Effects on Likelihood Ratios in Fire Debris Analysis

1
Department of Chemistry, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162367, Orlando, FL 32816-2366, USA
2
National Center for Forensic Science, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162367, Orlando, FL 32816-2367, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 3 July 2018 / Revised: 10 August 2018 / Accepted: 21 August 2018 / Published: 3 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Fire Debris Analysis)
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Abstract

Computational models for determining the strength of fire debris evidence based on likelihood ratios (LR) were developed and validated against data sets derived from different distributions of ASTM E1618-14 designated ignitable liquid class and substrate pyrolysis contributions using in-silico generated data. The models all perform well in cross validation against the distributions used to generate the model. However, a model generated based on data that does not contain representatives from all of the ASTM E1618-14 classes does not perform well in validation with data sets that contain representatives from the missing classes. A quadratic discriminant model based on a balanced data set (ignitable liquid versus substrate pyrolysis), with a uniform distribution of the ASTM E1618-14 classes, performed well (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.836) when tested against laboratory-developed casework-relevant samples of known ground truth. View Full-Text
Keywords: fire debris analysis; likelihood ratios; evidentiary value; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis fire debris analysis; likelihood ratios; evidentiary value; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Allen, A.; Williams, M.R.; Thurn, N.A.; Sigman, M.E. Model Distribution Effects on Likelihood Ratios in Fire Debris Analysis. Separations 2018, 5, 44.

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